On Friday, December 31, 2021 at 10:02:58 AM UTC-5, Tim Chow wrote:
XGID=-BABaBBB--B-----bb-bbdB-b-:1:1:1:41:0:0:0:0:10
X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O | | O O O X O |
| O O | | O O O X O |
| | | O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | | +---+
| X X | | X X X X | | 2 |
| X X | | X X O X X X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 110 O: 95 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 41
It goes against the grain to volunteer a direct shot here. Why
allow O to escape with tempo with a 3? XG evidently judges the
improvement in board strength to be worth the risk. Even if O
escapes her straggler, X may hit a shot later on, and if so, the
five-point board will come in handy.
1. Rollout¹ 7/2 eq:-0.242
Player: 34.24% (G:4.73% B:0.09%)
Opponent: 65.76% (G:9.29% B:0.22%)
Confidence: ±0.006 (-0.247..-0.236) - [100.0%]
2. Rollout¹ 7/6 7/3 eq:-0.311 (-0.069)
Player: 31.13% (G:3.40% B:0.07%)
Opponent: 68.87% (G:7.11% B:0.20%)
Confidence: ±0.005 (-0.316..-0.306) - [0.0%]
3. Rollout¹ 6/5 6/2 eq:-0.317 (-0.075)
Player: 30.98% (G:3.03% B:0.07%)
Opponent: 69.02% (G:7.12% B:0.22%)
Confidence: ±0.006 (-0.322..-0.311) - [0.0%]
¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release
---
Tim Chow
It's about the potential shots now when the opponent doesn't escape/doesn't fully escape. Later on we could make the 5pt board easily anyway.
Stick
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