On Wednesday, December 29, 2021 at 8:44:24 AM UTC-5, Tim Chow wrote:
XGID=-BC-BBBbBa---B-----bbccb--:2:-1:1:64:0:0:0:0:10
X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X | | O O O O O | +---+
| X | | O O O O O | | 4 |
| | | O O | +---+
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X |
| X O | | X X X X X |
| O X O | | X X X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 80 O: 99 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 4, O own cube
X to play 64
According to XG, despite O's fearsome board, not only is it not
too risky to hit, it's best to slot the 3pt and give O a direct
shot from the bar.
The location of the cube is relevant here. Suppose that X had
cube access. Then XG says that X would have had a double before
the roll. But suppose X did not double. Then 13/9* 8/2 would
already lose X's market by a mile if O were to dance, so 9/3
would be overkill. But with O owning the cube, 9/3 wins a lot
more extra gammons for X than it loses.
1. Rollout¹ 13/9* 9/3 eq:+0.338
Player: 64.50% (G:24.16% B:0.06%)
Opponent: 35.50% (G:12.21% B:0.37%)
Confidence: ±0.004 (+0.335..+0.342) - [100.0%]
2. Rollout¹ 13/9* 8/2 eq:+0.219 (-0.120)
Player: 63.49% (G:16.29% B:0.05%)
Opponent: 36.51% (G:14.00% B:0.96%)
Confidence: ±0.004 (+0.214..+0.223) - [0.0%]
3. Rollout¹ 8/4 8/2 eq:+0.153 (-0.186)
Player: 61.88% (G:2.21% B:0.01%)
Opponent: 38.12% (G:2.19% B:0.07%)
Confidence: ±0.004 (+0.148..+0.157) - [0.0%]
¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release
---
Tim Chow
If you owned the cube you can't think that after not doubling before this roll (obvious blunder) the same player would know to double after any of the other sequences. He might think it's too good. Certainly a smaller error than not cubing now.
Stick
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