Does anyone know the specifics?

A letter from Alan Turing analysing the system is currently up for auction.

Turing says that for short runs the system is likely to produce a small
profit or a large loss. To me that sounds like a Martingale.

However he also wrote it was possible to win 'an unexpectedly large sum'
in the short term but the longer the gambler plays the 'more remote his chances'. That sounds contradictory to the previous observation, so
perhaps it's some form of Martingale hybrid.

Evil Nigel


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On Monday, September 6, 2021 at 2:17:05 PM UTC+3, nigel wrote:

Does anyone know the specifics?

A letter from Alan Turing analysing the system is currently up for auction.

Turing says that for short runs the system is likely to produce a small profit or a large loss. To me that sounds like a Martingale.

However he also wrote it was possible to win 'an unexpectedly large sum'
in the short term but the longer the gambler plays the 'more remote his chances'. That sounds contradictory to the previous observation, so
perhaps it's some form of Martingale hybrid.

Evil Nigel

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Doollow:

Interesting stuff, axiomaticule!

“Alan Turing tried to solve the mystery of winning big at the roulette wheel before turning to the Enigma code, excavated letters revealed.”

This is a screenshot of the letter where Turing tries a few “formulas” to “decipher” the roulette “Enigma”:
• https://saliu.com/ScreenImgs/TuringRoulette.gif

No offence, but the parameters he uses make no sense roulette-wise: 75 and 152. The rapport 75/152 comes close to the house edge in French roulette. The precise figure is (1 – 36/37) = 2.7%.

Alan Turing then tries what we know now as the ‘normal probability rule’ for one standard deviation. Indeed, the ‘normal probability rule’ rule proves that *it is possible* to beat the house edge and leave the casino a winner. SuperFormula.exe
calculates with a high degree of precision:

In the case of an event of probability
p = 1/37 (.02777778) in 152 trials,
79.4006405958622% of successes will fall within
1 standard deviation(s) from 4
• i.e., between 2 and *6*
the standard deviation is: 2.02606

At best: 6 wins x 35 = 210 betting units won in 152 spins; profit: 210 – 152 = 58 units.
At worst: 2 wins x 35 = 70 betting units won in 152 spins; loss: 70 – 152 = – 82 units.

• Minimum number of wins to make a profit in 152 spins: 5 (175 – 152 = 23)
• Probability of *at least* 5 wins in 152 spins: 39%. It is a pretty good probability.

The chance is significantly improved by playing roulette numbers that have already hit. The player just looks up the marquee at the table.

As I have stressed, it is best to keep the sessions short; e.g., it is better to play up to 200 (uninterrupted) spins, instead of 1000+.

The player can still win playing longer sessions; e.g., 1520 spins, as Turing also analyzed.

In the case of an event of probability
p = 1/37 (.02777778) in 1520 trials,
69.6860580168509% of successes will fall within
1 standard deviation(s) from 41
• i.e., between 35 and *47*
the standard deviation is: 6.32224

At best: 47 wins x 35 = 1645 betting units won in 1520 spins; profit: 1645 – 1520 = 125 units.
At worst: 35 wins x 35 = 1225 betting units won in 1520 spins; loss: 1225 – 1520 = – 295 units.

• Minimum number of wins to make a profit in 1520 spins: 44 (1540 – 1520 = 20)
• Probability of *at least* 44 wins in 1520 spins: 35%.

The shorter session diminishes the risk of losing it all.


• https://saliu.com/AdSense-referrals.html
“The Original Casino Strategy, Systems on Roulette Marquee Numbers”

• https://download.saliu.com/roulette-systems.html
“The easiest and most straightforward free roulette system based on wheel bias”.

More on Alan Turing and decoding Enigma and other ciphers:
• https://saliu.com/bbs/messages/enigma-permutations.html

“Doollow, Nigel, Avast, Avast
You are running oh-so-fast
No one can see your tail
For you are the fastest snail.”

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Doollow et al.:

Axiomatics, I don’t know exactly what gambling system Alan Turing is writing about. I can only see his letter has a tile: “Gambling System”. Then he refers to “batches of 10 spins”.

I don’t think a ‘1/37 bet in 10 spins’ is feasible in roulette. Only an ‘18/37 bet’ can be applied to a roulette gambling system. Thus, we can apply the ‘normal probability rule’ to an event of probability p = 18/37. It is the case of ‘
even money’ betting (red/black, high/low, even/odd).


In the case of an event of probability
p = 18/37 (.48648649) in 10 trials,
88.9340988586645 % of successes will fall within
1 standard deviation(s) from 5
i.e., between 3 and *7*
the standard deviation is: 1.58056

This is how roulette is paying. You win an ‘even-money’ bet; they pay you a profit of 1, plus they give you back 1 (your bet). So, you need to make the adjustments for the ‘1/37’ probability cases. Only when you win, they give you back your bet.

At best: 7 wins x 2 = 14 betting units won in 10 spins; profit: 14 – 10 = 4 units.
At worst: 3 wins x 2 = 3 betting units won in 10 spins; loss: 6 – 10 = – 4 units.

• Minimum number of wins to make a profit in 10 spins: 6 (12 – 10 = 2) • Probability of *at least* 6 wins in 10 spins: 34%.

Probably Alfred Beuttell played a roulette system like this:

• Play ‘even-money’ bets only
• Divide your playing sessions into “batches” of 10 spins
• If you reached 5 or fewer wins in the 1st batch, increase your bet in the next series of 10 spins
• Increase again if fail
• If 5 or more losing batches, start martingaling.

The best roulette gambling is for ‘p=2/3=66%’ bets (double-dozen, double-kolumn).

• https://saliu.com/best-roulette-systems.html
• “The Super Roulette Strategy: The Best Roulette Systems Ever: Win–Loss Streaks, Progression Betting”.

Ion Saliu
Founder of Gambling Science
Spin Doctor in Roulette Mathematics

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On Monday, 6 September 2021 at 12:17:05 UTC+1, nigel wrote:

Does anyone know the specifics?

A letter from Alan Turing analysing the system is currently up for auction.

Turing says that for short runs the system is likely to produce a small profit or a large loss. To me that sounds like a Martingale.

However he also wrote it was possible to win 'an unexpectedly large sum'
in the short term but the longer the gambler plays the 'more remote his chances'. That sounds contradictory to the previous observation, so
perhaps it's some form of Martingale hybrid.

Evil Nigel

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Not heard this story before. Its not as if Alan was a known gambler. It was a good read.

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On Wednesday, September 8, 2021 at 2:16:57 PM UTC+3, NN wrote:

On Monday, 6 September 2021 at 12:17:05 UTC+1, nigel wrote:

Does anyone know the specifics?

A letter from Alan Turing analysing the system is currently up for auction.

Turing says that for short runs the system is likely to produce a small profit or a large loss. To me that sounds like a Martingale.

However he also wrote it was possible to win 'an unexpectedly large sum' in the short term but the longer the gambler plays the 'more remote his chances'. That sounds contradictory to the previous observation, so perhaps it's some form of Martingale hybrid.

Evil Nigel

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Not heard this story before. Its not as if Alan was a known gambler. It was a good read.

“It was a good read.”

In what language? Churchill’s? Stalin’s? Hitler’s? Or, Mao’s?

BRRRRRRRRAHAHAHAHA!!!!!!!

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I wish we had exact details of how the bets were placed. It might be fun
to clone it for a lottery system.

Evil Nigel

Ion Saliu wrote:

Doollow et al.:

Axiomatics, I don’t know exactly what gambling system Alan Turing is writing about. I can only see his letter has a tile: “Gambling System”. Then he refers to “batches of 10 spins”.

I don’t think a ‘1/37 bet in 10 spins’ is feasible in roulette. Only an ‘18/37 bet’ can be applied to a roulette gambling system. Thus, we can apply the ‘normal probability rule’ to an event of probability p = 18/37. It is the case of ‘

even money’ betting (red/black, high/low, even/odd).

In the case of an event of probability
p = 18/37 (.48648649) in 10 trials,
88.9340988586645 % of successes will fall within
1 standard deviation(s) from 5
i.e., between 3 and *7*
the standard deviation is: 1.58056

This is how roulette is paying. You win an ‘even-money’ bet; they pay you a profit of 1, plus they give you back 1 (your bet). So, you need to make the adjustments for the ‘1/37’ probability cases. Only when you win, they give you back your bet.

At best: 7 wins x 2 = 14 betting units won in 10 spins; profit: 14 – 10 = 4 units.
At worst: 3 wins x 2 = 3 betting units won in 10 spins; loss: 6 – 10 = – 4 units.

• Minimum number of wins to make a profit in 10 spins: 6 (12 – 10 = 2) • Probability of *at least* 6 wins in 10 spins: 34%.

Probably Alfred Beuttell played a roulette system like this:

• Play ‘even-money’ bets only
• Divide your playing sessions into “batches” of 10 spins
• If you reached 5 or fewer wins in the 1st batch, increase your bet in the next series of 10 spins
• Increase again if fail
• If 5 or more losing batches, start martingaling.

The best roulette gambling is for ‘p=2/3=66%’ bets (double-dozen, double-kolumn).

• https://saliu.com/best-roulette-systems.html
• “The Super Roulette Strategy: The Best Roulette Systems Ever: Win–Loss Streaks, Progression Betting”.

Ion Saliu
Founder of Gambling Science
Spin Doctor in Roulette Mathematics

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"NN" <[email protected]> wrote in message news:[email protected]...

On Monday, 6 September 2021 at 12:17:05 UTC+1, nigel wrote:

Does anyone know the specifics?

A letter from Alan Turing analysing the system is currently up for
auction.

Turing says that for short runs the system is likely to produce a small
profit or a large loss. To me that sounds like a Martingale.

However he also wrote it was possible to win 'an unexpectedly large sum'
in the short term but the longer the gambler plays the 'more remote his
chances'. That sounds contradictory to the previous observation, so
perhaps it's some form of Martingale hybrid.

Evil Nigel

https://www.avast.com/antivirus

Not heard this story before. Its not as if Alan was a known gambler. It
was a good read.

I've not heard of it.

If you have the energy then Martingale is as simple as it gets.

MJ

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Marmaduke Jinks wrote:

"NN" <[email protected]> wrote in message news:[email protected]...

On Monday, 6 September 2021 at 12:17:05 UTC+1, nigel wrote:

Does anyone know the specifics?

A letter from Alan Turing analysing the system is currently up for >>>auction.

Turing says that for short runs the system is likely to produce a small >>>profit or a large loss. To me that sounds like a Martingale.

However he also wrote it was possible to win 'an unexpectedly large sum' >>>in the short term but the longer the gambler plays the 'more remote his >>>chances'. That sounds contradictory to the previous observation, so >>>perhaps it's some form of Martingale hybrid.

Evil Nigel

https://www.avast.com/antivirus

Not heard this story before. Its not as if Alan was a known gambler. It
was a good read.

I've not heard of it.

If you have the energy then Martingale is as simple as it gets.

MJ

But the ability to win 'an unexpectedly large sum in the short term' is
not indicative of a simple martingale. I reckon there's something else
going on.

Evil Nigel


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Doollow, Martsopolleahk, et al.:

Alitser Turing’s statement: “...win 'an unexpectedly large sum in the short term'” is qualified without saying. The qualification is “POTENTIALLY win... etc.”.

I betcha, martingaling betting was involved in “Alfred Beuttell's Roulette System”. And it could have only been applied to ‘even-money betting — and — only in ’10-spin batches’. Even so, bets of ‘p=34%’ are not suited for martingaling.
The ‘p~50%’ bets are the best suited.

Now, Martingale scares the bejesus out of most people, hardcore gamblers included. The instilled fear is: “The gambler can lose indefinitely”. Indeed, but rarely, a player might encounter long losing streaks. The appearance of losing streaks, however,
is determined by probability and number of trials. Clear and precise tables of appearance can be plotted based on undeniable mathematics. This one is for blackjack, a game a little worse than roulette:

https://saliu.com/gambling-lottery-lotto/blackjack-report.htm
Blackjack Streaks, Gambling Formula, Probability, Odds.

The streaks come and go mathematically... never always, never... never...

https://saliu.com/ScreenImgs/blackjack-streaks-new.gif

“'... an unexpectedly large sum in the short term' is not indicative of a simple martingale. I reckon there's something else going on.”

Methinks there was some statistical analysis involved. The repeats do show a better appearance in the “short-range future”.

Doollow, you might want to appeal to your idol Kotskarr to chip in. Wasn’t he a statistical buff? The pride of Manchester... united, or naught??

BRRRRRRRRAHAHAHAHA!!!!!!!

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"nigel" <[email protected]> wrote in message news:[email protected]...

Marmaduke Jinks wrote:

"NN" <[email protected]> wrote in message
news:[email protected]...

On Monday, 6 September 2021 at 12:17:05 UTC+1, nigel wrote:

Does anyone know the specifics?

A letter from Alan Turing analysing the system is currently up for >>>>auction.

Turing says that for short runs the system is likely to produce a small >>>>profit or a large loss. To me that sounds like a Martingale.

However he also wrote it was possible to win 'an unexpectedly large sum' >>>>in the short term but the longer the gambler plays the 'more remote his >>>>chances'. That sounds contradictory to the previous observation, so >>>>perhaps it's some form of Martingale hybrid.

Evil Nigel

https://www.avast.com/antivirus

Not heard this story before. Its not as if Alan was a known gambler. It >>>was a good read.

I've not heard of it.

If you have the energy then Martingale is as simple as it gets.

MJ

But the ability to win 'an unexpectedly large sum in the short term' is
not indicative of a simple martingale. I reckon there's something else
going on.

Evil Nigel

Unless he was just b*ll sh*tting them. He did also say, in one report, that they could "lose" an unexpectedly large sum.

https://newsbeezer.com/uk/alan-turing-tried-to-beat-the-roulette-wheel-before-helping-defeat-the-nazis/
Turing wrote: "With small runs you are most likely to win or you will lose
an unexpectedly large sum. "The longer the run is extended, the lower the chances of winning."

He should have said "stop at a winner" and Go Home. I used "Stop at a
winner" on my Ladbroke betting slips back in the 90's


MJ

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On Friday, September 10, 2021 at 8:34:12 PM UTC+3, Marmaduke Jinks wrote:

He should have said "stop at a winner" and Go Home. I used "Stop at a winner" on my Ladbroke betting slips back in the 90's

MJ Martsopolleahk

Martsopolleahk et al.:

There is a more generalized case raised in newsgroups several years ago. O tempora! O mores!

• "Obviously in roulette betting on in the long run you are going to lose your money but at some point, chances are you'll be in profit. To take an extreme example if you had $1000 you could reasonably expect to be ahead $1 at some point.
• Is it possible to generalize this? I want to win W dollars at which point I will quit. How much cash C would I need to have a probability P of succeeding? Let's say I'm betting on a 37 number roulette wheel (18 red 18 black and one green 0)?"

• https://saliu.com/roulette2.html
• Probability, Odds to Win at Roulette in N Number of Spins — Winning and Quitting on Red/Black in Roulette.

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