On Wednesday, December 20, 2023 at 3:10:42 PM UTC-6, da pickle wrote:
This is a request for information. This subject can die.Coin flips are rigged. https://www.popularmechanics.com/science/math/a45496407/coin-tosses-have-a-bias/
There is a site for a coin flip generator at the bottom of this post. It
will come up with a photo of the head/tail of a coin that the last
visitor flipped.
There is a one flip selected. [There are several other generators
available.]
Each time you push the button, it will flip the coin.
You are going to bet on heads. Push the button.
If it lands heads ... you win and you quit and post your result as 1
play. Get a piece of paper to list your play.
If it lands tails, play again because you are one behind. But put a
mark on your paper that you are -1. If it lands tails again, play
again because you are two behind and mark -2. If it lands heads, play
again because you are one behind and mark -1. If it lands heads, play
again because you are even, mark 0. If it lands heads, quit, count and
report your total flips.
If you never get ahead ... you report:
(1) your total number of tries/flips and
(2) the -X when you quit flipping and
(3) whether you ever got 0 (at flip number-s) along the way and
(4) your highest negative number behind
It took me 6 flips to win one bet. Maybe all of us might make a
reasonable group to just see if most of the time we get even or ahead if
we play a short time. Your results may vary, but that is the point of
this simple test.
[A friend on mine not on the list tried it and quit after 50 flips ...
he was down -4 ... never got down more than -8. Serious result, but he
started with four straight losses, one win, followed by a win and then
three straight losses ... he never got lower than -3 along the way and
finally quit at 50 tries ... down -4.]
Very interesting reminder that keeping playing is not any sort of
guarantee you will win one net bet. But it does show that if you do get
ahead one bet, you might consider quitting. How often do you start out
losing four straight ... but it does happen.
Play and report. Please I will stop talking about it if that is the
final vote. We can go back to all the other interesting topics.
https://randomwordgenerator.com/coin-flip.php
C
...
If you never get ahead ... you report:
...
On 12/21/2023 1:37 PM, C Mayhem wrote:
On Wednesday, December 20, 2023 at 3:10:42 PM UTC-6, da pickle wrote:
This is a request for information. This subject can die.Coin flips are rigged.
There is a site for a coin flip generator at the bottom of this post. It >>> will come up with a photo of the head/tail of a coin that the last
visitor flipped.
There is a one flip selected. [There are several other generators
available.]
Each time you push the button, it will flip the coin.
You are going to bet on heads. Push the button.
If it lands heads ... you win and you quit and post your result as 1
play. Get a piece of paper to list your play.
If it lands tails, play again because you are one behind. But put a
mark on your paper that you are -1. If it lands tails again, play
again because you are two behind and mark -2. If it lands heads, play
again because you are one behind and mark -1. If it lands heads, play
again because you are even, mark 0. If it lands heads, quit, count and
report your total flips.
If you never get ahead ... you report:
(1) your total number of tries/flips and
(2) the -X when you quit flipping and
(3) whether you ever got 0 (at flip number-s) along the way and
(4) your highest negative number behind
It took me 6 flips to win one bet. Maybe all of us might make a
reasonable group to just see if most of the time we get even or ahead if >>> we play a short time. Your results may vary, but that is the point of
this simple test.
[A friend on mine not on the list tried it and quit after 50 flips ...
he was down -4 ... never got down more than -8. Serious result, but he
started with four straight losses, one win, followed by a win and then
three straight losses ... he never got lower than -3 along the way and
finally quit at 50 tries ... down -4.]
Very interesting reminder that keeping playing is not any sort of
guarantee you will win one net bet. But it does show that if you do get
ahead one bet, you might consider quitting. How often do you start out
losing four straight ... but it does happen.
Play and report. Please I will stop talking about it if that is the
final vote. We can go back to all the other interesting topics.
https://randomwordgenerator.com/coin-flip.php
https://www.popularmechanics.com/science/math/a45496407/coin-tosses-have-a-bias/
C
I think that is true. However, do you think the random generator is
rigged?
Did you do it? Results?
da pickle <[email protected]> wrote:
...
If you never get ahead ... you report:
...
This is silly. Set a limit on attempts or be doomed to write nonsense.
You might as well say, "If you don't win, don't report."
--bks
It doesn't. Especially when they showed it could be fixed to 100%.
On 12/22/2023 6:58 AM, Bradley K. Sherman wrote:
da pickle <[email protected]> wrote:...
...This is silly. Set a limit on attempts or be doomed to write nonsense.
If you never get ahead ... you report:
...
My friend quit after 50 tries ... down 4 ... never down more than 8.
da pickle<[email protected]> wrote:
On 12/22/2023 6:58 AM, Bradley K. Sherman wrote:
da pickle<[email protected]> wrote:...
...This is silly. Set a limit on attempts or be doomed to write nonsense.
If you never get ahead ... you report:
...
My friend quit after 50 tries ... down 4 ... never down more than 8.
I downloaded 10,000 flips from random.org (a file of 1's and
0's) and ran a Perl script against it that doesn't quit. I
got a maximum run of 85 straight losses.
--bks
da pickle <[email protected]> wrote:
On 12/22/2023 6:58 AM, Bradley K. Sherman wrote:
da pickle <[email protected]> wrote:...
...This is silly. Set a limit on attempts or be doomed to write nonsense.
If you never get ahead ... you report:
...
My friend quit after 50 tries ... down 4 ... never down more than 8.
I downloaded 10,000 flips from random.org (a file of 1's and
0's) and ran a Perl script against it that doesn't quit. I
got a maximum run of 85 straight losses.
--bks
On Dec 22, 2023, Bradley K. Sherman wrote
(in article <um4bi4$lql$[email protected]>):
da pickle<[email protected]> wrote:
On 12/22/2023 6:58 AM, Bradley K. Sherman wrote:
da pickle<[email protected]> wrote:...
...This is silly. Set a limit on attempts or be doomed to write nonsense.
If you never get ahead ... you report:
...
My friend quit after 50 tries ... down 4 ... never down more than 8.
I downloaded 10,000 flips from random.org (a file of 1's and
0's) and ran a Perl script against it that doesn't quit. I
got a maximum run of 85 straight losses.
--bks
You confused me. If there are 10k flips, and the perl script doesn’t quit, it must be reusing numbers, which would mean it must be randomly picking flips from the downloaded file, which means it must use perl’s prng. If that’s the case, and I know I might be misunderstanding what you’re saying, why bother with the download, and why not just use the perl prng to generate the flips? Or did you mean it doesn’t quit until it reaches 10k?
On Dec 22, 2023, da pickle wrote
(in article<[email protected]>):
Have you tried the flips just one time and can you post your results?
Again, it does not prove anything. I am interested in your result.
Why?
Have you tried the flips just one time and can you post your results?
Again, it does not prove anything. I am interested in your result.
On 12/22/2023 1:04 PM, Bill Vanek wrote:
On Dec 22, 2023, da pickle wrote
(in article<[email protected]>):
Have you tried the flips just one time and can you post your results?
Again, it does not prove anything. I am interested in your result.
Why?
I just want to have your single result. I am crazy for asking for such a
time consuming act, but it is interesting that no one ... not one ...
has actually tried it. Why?
On Dec 22, 2023, da pickle wrote
(in article<[email protected]>):
On 12/22/2023 1:04 PM, Bill Vanek wrote:
On Dec 22, 2023, da pickle wrote
(in article<[email protected]>):
Have you tried the flips just one time and can you post your results?
Again, it does not prove anything. I am interested in your result.
Why?
I just want to have your single result. I am crazy for asking for such a
time consuming act, but it is interesting that no one ... not one ...
has actually tried it. Why?
You keep asking people to do pointless things, and then ask why they won’t do them. You are no longer making any sense. Considering the obvious extremely high opinion of yourself you have always shown, it would be pointless to bother commenting that you have no self-awareness. So there - I sort of fulfilled your request by doing something pointless, even if it’s not exactly what you asked for.
On 12/22/2023 1:26 PM, Bill Vanek wrote:
On Dec 22, 2023, da pickle wrote
(in article<[email protected]>):
On 12/22/2023 1:04 PM, Bill Vanek wrote:
On Dec 22, 2023, da pickle wrote
(in article<[email protected]>):
Have you tried the flips just one time and can you post your results?
Again, it does not prove anything. I am interested in your result.
Why?
I just want to have your single result. I am crazy for asking for such a time consuming act, but it is interesting that no one ... not one ...
has actually tried it. Why?
You keep asking people to do pointless things, and then ask why they won’t
do them. You are no longer making any sense. Considering the obvious extremely high opinion of yourself you have always shown, it would be pointless to bother commenting that you have no self-awareness. So there - I
sort of fulfilled your request by doing something pointless, even if it’s not exactly what you asked for.
Thanks for completing the circle.
I am glad that everyone agrees that anyone has an advantage in a true
(or even very close) 50/50 game if they quit while they are ahead one
bet but their opponent cannot quit when he/she is ahead. Often, it only
takes one time.
And that no one wants to play because it is pointless to play just to
lose one bet (even though they could win a whole lot of bets) ...
especially if that one bet is "significant". For everyone so far ...
$100 seems too big a bet, so they will not play.
On Dec 22, 2023, da pickle wrote
(in article<[email protected]>):
On 12/22/2023 1:26 PM, Bill Vanek wrote:
On Dec 22, 2023, da pickle wrote
(in article<[email protected]>):
On 12/22/2023 1:04 PM, Bill Vanek wrote:
On Dec 22, 2023, da pickle wrote
(in article<[email protected]>):
Have you tried the flips just one time and can you post your results?
Again, it does not prove anything. I am interested in your result.
Why?
I just want to have your single result. I am crazy for asking for such a
time consuming act, but it is interesting that no one ... not one ... has actually tried it. Why?
You keep asking people to do pointless things, and then ask why they won’t
do them. You are no longer making any sense. Considering the obvious extremely high opinion of yourself you have always shown, it would be pointless to bother commenting that you have no self-awareness. So there -
I
sort of fulfilled your request by doing something pointless, even if it’s
not exactly what you asked for.
Thanks for completing the circle.
I am glad that everyone agrees that anyone has an advantage in a true
(or even very close) 50/50 game if they quit while they are ahead one
bet but their opponent cannot quit when he/she is ahead. Often, it only takes one time.
And that no one wants to play because it is pointless to play just to
lose one bet (even though they could win a whole lot of bets) ... especially if that one bet is "significant". For everyone so far ...
$100 seems too big a bet, so they will not play.
I’’ll try this once more: define the word “advantage”, as you are using it. And I don’t mean to write two paragraphs like last time, simply repeating your bet. You need to define the word itself in a generic way that it can be applied to any situation at all to test that proposed situation for an advantage by your definition. I am very sure you either can’t or simply won’t do it, so I probably just wasted some more time.
On Dec 22, 2023, Bill Vanek wrote
(in article<[email protected]>):
On Dec 22, 2023, da pickle wrote
(in article<[email protected]>):
On 12/22/2023 1:26 PM, Bill Vanek wrote:
On Dec 22, 2023, da pickle wrote
(in article<[email protected]>):
On 12/22/2023 1:04 PM, Bill Vanek wrote:
On Dec 22, 2023, da pickle wrote
(in article<[email protected]>):
Have you tried the flips just one time and can you post your results? >>>>>>>Why?
Again, it does not prove anything. I am interested in your result. >>>>>>
I just want to have your single result. I am crazy for asking for such a >>>>> time consuming act, but it is interesting that no one ... not one ... >>>>> has actually tried it. Why?
You keep asking people to do pointless things, and then ask why they
won’t
do them. You are no longer making any sense. Considering the obvious
extremely high opinion of yourself you have always shown, it would be
pointless to bother commenting that you have no self-awareness. So there - >>>> I
sort of fulfilled your request by doing something pointless, even if it’s
not exactly what you asked for.
Thanks for completing the circle.
I am glad that everyone agrees that anyone has an advantage in a true
(or even very close) 50/50 game if they quit while they are ahead one
bet but their opponent cannot quit when he/she is ahead. Often, it only
takes one time.
And that no one wants to play because it is pointless to play just to
lose one bet (even though they could win a whole lot of bets) ...
especially if that one bet is "significant". For everyone so far ...
$100 seems too big a bet, so they will not play.
I’’ll try this once more: define the word “advantage”, as you are
using it. And I don’t mean to write two paragraphs like last time, simply >> repeating your bet. You need to define the word itself in a generic way that >> it can be applied to any situation at all to test that proposed situation for
an advantage by your definition. I am very sure you either can’t or simply >> won’t do it, so I probably just wasted some more time.
BTW, you are clearly claiming this advantage in a true 50/50 game, so that would be in the coin tosses. Your definition, to be valid, has to apply to every single coin toss. If it does not, then you are not betting on the coin toss, you are betting on the outcome of a series of tosses with its own rules, and therefore not a true 50/50 game by any stretch. So go ahead, teach us all something.
On 12/22/2023 2:54 PM, Bill Vanek wrote:
On Dec 22, 2023, Bill Vanek wrote
(in article<[email protected]>):
On Dec 22, 2023, da pickle wrote
(in article<[email protected]>):
On 12/22/2023 1:26 PM, Bill Vanek wrote:
On Dec 22, 2023, da pickle wrote
(in article<[email protected]>):
On 12/22/2023 1:04 PM, Bill Vanek wrote:
On Dec 22, 2023, da pickle wrote
(in article<[email protected]>):
Have you tried the flips just one time and can you post your results?
Again, it does not prove anything. I am interested in your result.
Why?
I just want to have your single result. I am crazy for asking for such a
time consuming act, but it is interesting that no one ... not one ...
has actually tried it. Why?
You keep asking people to do pointless things, and then ask why they won’t
do them. You are no longer making any sense. Considering the obvious extremely high opinion of yourself you have always shown, it would be pointless to bother commenting that you have no self-awareness. So there
-
I
sort of fulfilled your request by doing something pointless, even if it’s
not exactly what you asked for.
Thanks for completing the circle.
I am glad that everyone agrees that anyone has an advantage in a true (or even very close) 50/50 game if they quit while they are ahead one bet but their opponent cannot quit when he/she is ahead. Often, it only takes one time.
And that no one wants to play because it is pointless to play just to lose one bet (even though they could win a whole lot of bets) ... especially if that one bet is "significant". For everyone so far ... $100 seems too big a bet, so they will not play.
I’’ll try this once more: define the word “advantage”, as you are using it. And I don’t mean to write two paragraphs like last time, simply
repeating your bet. You need to define the word itself in a generic way that
it can be applied to any situation at all to test that proposed situation for
an advantage by your definition. I am very sure you either can’t or simply
won’t do it, so I probably just wasted some more time.
BTW, you are clearly claiming this advantage in a true 50/50 game, so that would be in the coin tosses. Your definition, to be valid, has to apply to every single coin toss. If it does not, then you are not betting on the coin
toss, you are betting on the outcome of a series of tosses with its own rules, and therefore not a true 50/50 game by any stretch. So go ahead, teach
us all something.
No, it does not apply to every single coin toss. The game is a series
of coin tosses. Each toss is a new bet. If I win the first toss ... I
quit. If I lose the first toss, I toss until I get ahead one bet and I
quit. If I tire, I quit while I am "behind" and you win all those bets
you have accumulated. Why do I have to continue to correct you.
On 12/22/2023 2:47 PM, Bill Vanek wrote:
On Dec 22, 2023, da pickle wrote
(in article<[email protected]>):
On 12/22/2023 1:26 PM, Bill Vanek wrote:
On Dec 22, 2023, da pickle wrote
(in article<[email protected]>):
On 12/22/2023 1:04 PM, Bill Vanek wrote:
On Dec 22, 2023, da pickle wrote
(in article<[email protected]>):
Have you tried the flips just one time and can you post your results?
Again, it does not prove anything. I am interested in your result.
Why?
I just want to have your single result. I am crazy for asking for such a
time consuming act, but it is interesting that no one ... not one ... has actually tried it. Why?
You keep asking people to do pointless things, and then ask why they won’t
do them. You are no longer making any sense. Considering the obvious extremely high opinion of yourself you have always shown, it would be pointless to bother commenting that you have no self-awareness. So there
- I
sort of fulfilled your request by doing something pointless, even if it’s
not exactly what you asked for.
Thanks for completing the circle.
I am glad that everyone agrees that anyone has an advantage in a true
(or even very close) 50/50 game if they quit while they are ahead one
bet but their opponent cannot quit when he/she is ahead. Often, it only takes one time.
And that no one wants to play because it is pointless to play just to lose one bet (even though they could win a whole lot of bets) ... especially if that one bet is "significant". For everyone so far ...
$100 seems too big a bet, so they will not play.
I’’ll try this once more: define the word “advantage”, as you are using it. And I don’t mean to write two paragraphs like last time, simply repeating your bet. You need to define the word itself in a generic way that
it can be applied to any situation at all to test that proposed situation for
an advantage by your definition. I am very sure you either can’t or simply
won’t do it, so I probably just wasted some more time.
I think I will get ahead one bet on a series of 50/50 tosses (maybe the
first toss) before I give up along the way. That is my advantage ...
you cannot quit.
[It has been "defined" for you from the first post.]
On Friday, December 22, 2023 at 10:55:54 AM UTC-5, Bradley K. Sherman wrote:
da pickle <[email protected]> wrote:
On 12/22/2023 6:58 AM, Bradley K. Sherman wrote:I downloaded 10,000 flips from random.org (a file of 1's and
da pickle <[email protected]> wrote:...
...This is silly. Set a limit on attempts or be doomed to write nonsense.
If you never get ahead ... you report:
...
My friend quit after 50 tries ... down 4 ... never down more than 8.
0's) and ran a Perl script against it that doesn't quit. I
got a maximum run of 85 straight losses.
--bks
Net losses to that point, or just sequential?
On Dec 22, 2023, da pickle wrote
(in article<[email protected]>):
On 12/22/2023 2:47 PM, Bill Vanek wrote:
On Dec 22, 2023, da pickle wrote
(in article<[email protected]>):
On 12/22/2023 1:26 PM, Bill Vanek wrote:
On Dec 22, 2023, da pickle wrote
(in article<[email protected]>):
On 12/22/2023 1:04 PM, Bill Vanek wrote:
On Dec 22, 2023, da pickle wrote
(in article<[email protected]>):
Have you tried the flips just one time and can you post your results? >>>>>>>>Why?
Again, it does not prove anything. I am interested in your result. >>>>>>>
I just want to have your single result. I am crazy for asking for such a >>>>>> time consuming act, but it is interesting that no one ... not one ... >>>>>> has actually tried it. Why?
You keep asking people to do pointless things, and then ask why they >>>>> won’t
do them. You are no longer making any sense. Considering the obvious >>>>> extremely high opinion of yourself you have always shown, it would be >>>>> pointless to bother commenting that you have no self-awareness. So there >>>>> - I
sort of fulfilled your request by doing something pointless, even if >>>>> it’s
not exactly what you asked for.
Thanks for completing the circle.
I am glad that everyone agrees that anyone has an advantage in a true
(or even very close) 50/50 game if they quit while they are ahead one
bet but their opponent cannot quit when he/she is ahead. Often, it only >>>> takes one time.
And that no one wants to play because it is pointless to play just to
lose one bet (even though they could win a whole lot of bets) ...
especially if that one bet is "significant". For everyone so far ...
$100 seems too big a bet, so they will not play.
I’’ll try this once more: define the word “advantage”, as you are >>> using it. And I don’t mean to write two paragraphs like last time, simply >>> repeating your bet. You need to define the word itself in a generic way that
it can be applied to any situation at all to test that proposed situation >>> for
an advantage by your definition. I am very sure you either can’t or simply
won’t do it, so I probably just wasted some more time.
I think I will get ahead one bet on a series of 50/50 tosses (maybe the
first toss) before I give up along the way. That is my advantage ...
you cannot quit.
[It has been "defined" for you from the first post.]
You were a lawyer? Whew! You define “advantage” on a group that traffics in math and probability as, “you ’think’ that you will get ahead one bet on some undefined series of coin tosses" - could be a thousand, maybe ten million, maybe one, whatever, eh? Well that is certainly some rigid logical thinking. I hope you practiced exclusively in front of a judge whose thinking was based on the same mush as yours.
On Dec 22, 2023, da pickle wrote
(in article<[email protected]>):
On 12/22/2023 2:54 PM, Bill Vanek wrote:
On Dec 22, 2023, Bill Vanek wrote
(in article<[email protected]>):
On Dec 22, 2023, da pickle wrote
(in article<[email protected]>):
On 12/22/2023 1:26 PM, Bill Vanek wrote:
On Dec 22, 2023, da pickle wrote
(in article<[email protected]>):
On 12/22/2023 1:04 PM, Bill Vanek wrote:
On Dec 22, 2023, da pickle wrote
(in article<[email protected]>):
Have you tried the flips just one time and can you post your results? >>>>>>>>>Why?
Again, it does not prove anything. I am interested in your result. >>>>>>>>
I just want to have your single result. I am crazy for asking for such a
time consuming act, but it is interesting that no one ... not one ... >>>>>>> has actually tried it. Why?
You keep asking people to do pointless things, and then ask why they >>>>>> won’t
do them. You are no longer making any sense. Considering the obvious >>>>>> extremely high opinion of yourself you have always shown, it would be >>>>>> pointless to bother commenting that you have no self-awareness. So there >>>>>> -
I
sort of fulfilled your request by doing something pointless, even if >>>>>> it’s
not exactly what you asked for.
Thanks for completing the circle.
I am glad that everyone agrees that anyone has an advantage in a true >>>>> (or even very close) 50/50 game if they quit while they are ahead one >>>>> bet but their opponent cannot quit when he/she is ahead. Often, it only >>>>> takes one time.
And that no one wants to play because it is pointless to play just to >>>>> lose one bet (even though they could win a whole lot of bets) ...
especially if that one bet is "significant". For everyone so far ... >>>>> $100 seems too big a bet, so they will not play.
I’’ll try this once more: define the word “advantage”, as you are >>>> using it. And I don’t mean to write two paragraphs like last time, simply
repeating your bet. You need to define the word itself in a generic way >>>> that
it can be applied to any situation at all to test that proposed situation >>>> for
an advantage by your definition. I am very sure you either can’t or
simply
won’t do it, so I probably just wasted some more time.
BTW, you are clearly claiming this advantage in a true 50/50 game, so that >>> would be in the coin tosses. Your definition, to be valid, has to apply to >>> every single coin toss. If it does not, then you are not betting on the coin
toss, you are betting on the outcome of a series of tosses with its own
rules, and therefore not a true 50/50 game by any stretch. So go ahead,
teach
us all something.
No, it does not apply to every single coin toss. The game is a series
of coin tosses. Each toss is a new bet. If I win the first toss ... I
quit. If I lose the first toss, I toss until I get ahead one bet and I
quit. If I tire, I quit while I am "behind" and you win all those bets
you have accumulated. Why do I have to continue to correct you.
You can correct me once and for all right now. I think you’ll agree that you do not have an advantage on the first toss, right? So when exactly does that advantage form? The second toss, 3d, 4th? Just tell me exactly when, and then maybe I’ll understand. Keep me laughing.
BTW, ever heard the term, “magical thinking”?
On Dec 22, 2023, Bradley K. Sherman wrote
(in article <um4bi4$lql$[email protected]>):
da pickle<[email protected]> wrote:
On 12/22/2023 6:58 AM, Bradley K. Sherman wrote:
da pickle<[email protected]> wrote:My friend quit after 50 tries ... down 4 ... never down more than 8.
...This is silly. Set a limit on attempts or be doomed to write nonsense. >> > ...
If you never get ahead ... you report:
...
I downloaded 10,000 flips from random.org (a file of 1's and
0's) and ran a Perl script against it that doesn't quit. I
got a maximum run of 85 straight losses.
You confused me.
...
I ask you a question and you do not answer my question.
Does the house have an "advantage" on every bet you make on a roulette
wheel?
Bill Vanek <[email protected]> wrote:
On Dec 22, 2023, Bradley K. Sherman wrote
(in article <um4bi4$lql$[email protected]>):
da pickle<[email protected]> wrote:
On 12/22/2023 6:58 AM, Bradley K. Sherman wrote:
da pickle<[email protected]> wrote:...
...This is silly. Set a limit on attempts or be doomed to write nonsense.
If you never get ahead ... you report:
...
My friend quit after 50 tries ... down 4 ... never down more than 8.
I downloaded 10,000 flips from random.org (a file of 1's and
0's) and ran a Perl script against it that doesn't quit. I
got a maximum run of 85 straight losses.
You confused me.
...
Yes, sorry. That was very unclear. I mean that I played through the
10,000 flips like this:
1. Set count to 0
2. If next flip is "1" increment count, else decrement count.
3. If count > 0, return to (1.)
All I was doing was recording the greatest number of flips to get to +1.
"85 straight losses" just means that the counter got to -85 at one point.
--bks
I did not limit the loss side, but you might start with the number ofPlease explain clearly to me how that is not a risk of ruin situation. One
times only ONE side gets behind 100 net bets (but that side did not win
the first toss).
On Dec 23, 2023, Bradley K. Sherman wrote
(in article <um6lf4$ol4$[email protected]>):
Bill Vanek <[email protected]> wrote:
On Dec 22, 2023, Bradley K. Sherman wrote
(in article <um4bi4$lql$[email protected]>):
da pickle<[email protected]> wrote:
On 12/22/2023 6:58 AM, Bradley K. Sherman wrote:
da pickle<[email protected]> wrote:My friend quit after 50 tries ... down 4 ... never down more than 8.
...This is silly. Set a limit on attempts or be doomed to write nonsense. >>>>> ...
If you never get ahead ... you report:
...
I downloaded 10,000 flips from random.org (a file of 1's and
0's) and ran a Perl script against it that doesn't quit. I
got a maximum run of 85 straight losses.
You confused me.
...
Yes, sorry. That was very unclear. I mean that I played through the
10,000 flips like this:
1. Set count to 0
2. If next flip is "1" increment count, else decrement count.
3. If count > 0, return to (1.)
All I was doing was recording the greatest number of flips to get to +1.
"85 straight losses" just means that the counter got to -85 at one point.
--bks
I saw similar numbers in my sims. My sim was intended to show how many times the player with one bet never got behind in a sim of X trials. It was what one would expect - there were always some sims where that player never got behind even one bet no matter how many trials I used. Obviously, the more trials in a sim, the lower the number of sims where he never got behind. Exactly what the math would tell you.
On Dec 23, 2023, da pickle wrote
(in article<[email protected]>):
I did not limit the loss side, but you might start with the number of
times only ONE side gets behind 100 net bets (but that side did not win
the first toss).
Please explain clearly to me how that is not a risk of ruin situation. One side has 100 bets, and the other has one bet to lose, all in a series of even money bets, and you want to know the chances of one side or the other losing all his bets. I’m waiting. BTW, that question has been answered. Are you just oblivious to that? You are suggesting that we “start with the number of timesonly ONE side gets behind 100 net bets... “, something that Tim did start with, long, long ago.
On Dec 23, 2023, da pickle wrote
(in article<[email protected]>):
I ask you a question and you do not answer my question.
You are identical to Jerry. All of your questions have been answered over and over by more than one person, and you claim to have never seen them. “Knew you couldn’t show.” “Run and hide now.” Fucking insanity.
Does the house have an "advantage" on every bet you make on a roulette
wheel?
Why don’t you tell us? You fancy yourself the expert on this sort of thing. And I need another laugh.
On 12/23/2023 11:22 AM, Bill Vanek wrote:
Oh my god. Am I reading this right? You are saying this *is* a risk of ruin bet? Is that correct? You are saying that the bet you have been talking about all along really is a risk of ruin bet? About time.On Dec 23, 2023, da pickle wrote
(in article<[email protected]>):
Again ... you cut my post
I have answered your other questions in my first post.
I agree that I have a 50/50 chance on the first toss ... no advantage.
That has nothing to do with the "bet" proposed.
Repeated 50/50 tosses in a series go back and forth in a 50/50 result on "every" try. If you leave when you win the first try ... your opponent
on the other side cannot try to get even (50/50) on the next toss. There
is no series in this case.
You mathematicians show me the series where both sides do NOT trade
being even or one side ahead one net bet "ever" during the series. Only
ONE side "stays" one net bet or more ahead forever (and that side did
NOT win the first bet).
I did not limit the loss side, but you might start with the number of
times only ONE side gets behind 100 net bets (but that side did not win
the first toss).
No magical thinking required. Just don't change the bet.
I did not limit the loss side, but you might start with the number of times only ONE side gets behind 100 net bets (but that side did not win the first toss).
Please explain clearly to me how that is not a risk of ruin situation. One side has 100 bets, and the other has one bet to lose, all in a series of even
money bets, and you want to know the chances of one side or the other losing
all his bets. I’m waiting. BTW, that question has been answered. Are you just oblivious to that? You are suggesting that we “start with the number of timesonly ONE side gets behind 100 net bets... “, something that Tim did
start with, long, long ago.
This is a risk of ruin situation. Address my post.
On 12/23/2023 11:01 AM, Bill Vanek wrote:
On Dec 23, 2023, Bradley K. Sherman wrote
(in article <um6lf4$ol4$[email protected]>):
Bill Vanek <[email protected]> wrote:
On Dec 22, 2023, Bradley K. Sherman wrote
(in article <um4bi4$lql$[email protected]>):
da pickle<[email protected]> wrote:
On 12/22/2023 6:58 AM, Bradley K. Sherman wrote:
da pickle<[email protected]> wrote:...
...This is silly. Set a limit on attempts or be doomed to write nonsense.
If you never get ahead ... you report:
...
My friend quit after 50 tries ... down 4 ... never down more than 8.
I downloaded 10,000 flips from random.org (a file of 1's and
0's) and ran a Perl script against it that doesn't quit. I
got a maximum run of 85 straight losses.
You confused me.
...
Yes, sorry. That was very unclear. I mean that I played through the 10,000 flips like this:
1. Set count to 0
2. If next flip is "1" increment count, else decrement count.
3. If count > 0, return to (1.)
All I was doing was recording the greatest number of flips to get to +1. "85 straight losses" just means that the counter got to -85 at one point.
--bks
I saw similar numbers in my sims. My sim was intended to show how many times
the player with one bet never got behind in a sim of X trials. It was what one would expect - there were always some sims where that player never got behind even one bet no matter how many trials I used. Obviously, the more trials in a sim, the lower the number of sims where he never got behind. Exactly what the math would tell you.
What does -85 or 85 straight losses mean ...
On 12/23/2023 11:07 AM, Bill Vanek wrote:
On Dec 23, 2023, da pickle wrote
(in article<[email protected]>):
This is the original post:
I ask you a question and you do not answer my question.
I propose a "bet" on a gambling site ... and not one person will take my
bet. I suggest I have an "advantage" (in the gambling sense) and that
is why no one will take my offer to bet.
Most say I do not have an "advantage" but eventually one smart guy
eventually says I do have an "advantage" in a 50/50 series of bet that
only I can stop. But it is not a "guarantee" ... I want folks to try
and see if they might try a series of betting to see if they would "win"
a net one bet.
Then, it leaves the gambling group and starts in on mathematics
questions that are not relevant to a simple bet offer on a gambling site.
Does the house have an "advantage" on every bet you make on a roulette
wheel?
Why did you cut it? That IS Jerry.
I ask you a question and you do not answer my question.
You are identical to Jerry. All of your questions have been answered over and
over by more than one person, and you claim to have never seen them. “Knew
you couldn’t show.” “Run and hide now.” Fucking insanity.
You just cut and blab.
Does the house have an "advantage" on every bet you make on a roulette wheel?
Why don’t you tell us? You fancy yourself the expert on this sort of thing.
And I need another laugh.
I know the answer. Why do you just not answer a simple question?
YOU keep cutting and changing the "bet".
All your dodges are really getting obvious.
Apparently, not many people are threading the posts and the replies. It
would be obvious to anyone who is threading.
My proposed bet that you keep changing is one sided ... it does not
apply to anyone but the person who can QUIT when one net bet ahead. And
it MATTERS if you do not account for the win on the first try.
On Dec 23, 2023, da pickle wrote
(in article<[email protected]>):
On 12/23/2023 11:22 AM, Bill Vanek wrote:
Oh my god. Am I reading this right? You are saying this *is* a risk of ruin bet? Is that correct? You are saying that the bet you have been talking about all along really is a risk of ruin bet? About time.
On Dec 23, 2023, da pickle wrote
(in article<[email protected]>):
Again ... you cut my post
I have answered your other questions in my first post.
I agree that I have a 50/50 chance on the first toss ... no advantage.
That has nothing to do with the "bet" proposed.
Repeated 50/50 tosses in a series go back and forth in a 50/50 result on
"every" try. If you leave when you win the first try ... your opponent
on the other side cannot try to get even (50/50) on the next toss. There
is no series in this case.
You mathematicians show me the series where both sides do NOT trade
being even or one side ahead one net bet "ever" during the series. Only
ONE side "stays" one net bet or more ahead forever (and that side did
NOT win the first bet).
I did not limit the loss side, but you might start with the number of
times only ONE side gets behind 100 net bets (but that side did not win
the first toss).
No magical thinking required. Just don't change the bet.
I did not limit the loss side, but you might start with the number of
times only ONE side gets behind 100 net bets (but that side did not win >>>> the first toss).
Please explain clearly to me how that is not a risk of ruin situation. One >>> side has 100 bets, and the other has one bet to lose, all in a series of >>> even
money bets, and you want to know the chances of one side or the other losing
all his bets. I’m waiting. BTW, that question has been answered. Are you >>> just oblivious to that? You are suggesting that we “start with the number >>> of timesonly ONE side gets behind 100 net bets... “, something that Tim >>> did
start with, long, long ago.
This is a risk of ruin situation. Address my post.
On Dec 23, 2023, da pickle wrote
(in article<[email protected]>):
On 12/23/2023 11:07 AM, Bill Vanek wrote:
On Dec 23, 2023, da pickle wrote
(in article<[email protected]>):
This is the original post:
I ask you a question and you do not answer my question.
I propose a "bet" on a gambling site ... and not one person will take my
bet. I suggest I have an "advantage" (in the gambling sense) and that
is why no one will take my offer to bet.
Most say I do not have an "advantage" but eventually one smart guy
eventually says I do have an "advantage" in a 50/50 series of bet that
only I can stop. But it is not a "guarantee" ... I want folks to try
and see if they might try a series of betting to see if they would "win"
a net one bet.
Then, it leaves the gambling group and starts in on mathematics
questions that are not relevant to a simple bet offer on a gambling site.
Does the house have an "advantage" on every bet you make on a roulette
wheel?
Why did you cut it? That IS Jerry.
I ask you a question and you do not answer my question.
You are identical to Jerry. All of your questions have been answered over >>> and
over by more than one person, and you claim to have never seen them. “Knew
you couldn’t show.” “Run and hide now.” Fucking insanity.
You just cut and blab.
Does the house have an "advantage" on every bet you make on a roulette >>>> wheel?
Why don’t you tell us? You fancy yourself the expert on this sort of
thing.
And I need another laugh.
I know the answer. Why do you just not answer a simple question?
YOU keep cutting and changing the "bet".
All your dodges are really getting obvious.
Apparently, not many people are threading the posts and the replies. It
would be obvious to anyone who is threading.
My proposed bet that you keep changing is one sided ... it does not
apply to anyone but the person who can QUIT when one net bet ahead. And
it MATTERS if you do not account for the win on the first try.
Crazy. One sided? When your player wins, who is he winning from - himself? Do you understand what “zero-sum” means? Tell me how your bet is not zero sum? Can you win without someone losing?
On Saturday, December 23, 2023 at 9:07:29 AM UTC-8, Bill Vanek wrote:
On Dec 23, 2023, da pickle wrote.
(in article<[email protected]>):
I ask you a question and you do not answer my question.
You are identical to Jerry. All of your questions have been answered over and.
over by more than one person, and you claim to have never seen them.
.
.
As much as I enjoy watching and reading you dolts dodge and Bicker & Bitch, back and forth,
I fail to understand your continued desperate dodge to me. Using me as some sort of foil for
your failures.
.
No, my questions were NOT answered (“over and over”). That was my point. They were not
answered at all. That is the point of asking tough (embarrassing) direct questions. It’s taught at
POST. (Ask a direct question. Require an answer). It’s what prosecutors do. (It’s what brought
Rudy Giuliani his ruin. Prosecutor: “Your Honor, please direct the defendant to answer the question.”
Away from FOX a judge directed him to “Answer.” To which he had to reply, “No, I don’t have any
proof or evidence.” And the Bar took away his license.)
I return you to your Dodge & Weave ceremony.
(And, yes. Pickle has the advantage in his game. It may take a trillion flips, but you can't quit,
and he can; a winner).
On Saturday, December 23, 2023 at 10:31:47 AM UTC-8, da pickle wrote:
On 12/23/2023 11:07 AM, Bill Vanek wrote:.
On Dec 23, 2023, da pickle wroteThis is the original post:
(in article<[email protected]>):
I ask you a question and you do not answer my question.
I propose a "bet" on a gambling site ... and not one person will take my
bet. I suggest I have an "advantage" (in the gambling sense) and that
is why no one will take my offer to bet.
Most say I do not have an "advantage" but eventually one smart guy
eventually says I do have an "advantage" in a 50/50 series of bet that
only I can stop. But it is not a "guarantee" ... I want folks to try
and see if they might try a series of betting to see if they would "win"
a net one bet.
Then, it leaves the gambling group and starts in on mathematics
questions that are not relevant to a simple bet offer on a gambling site.
Does the house have an "advantage" on every bet you make on a roulette
wheel?
Why did you cut it? That IS Jerry.
And I have proved it is not.
And you "Can't show" that you have.
On December 22, da pickle wrote:
My friend quit after 50 tries ...
He'll never play again? Forever?
--
Rich
On 12/23/2023 2:05 PM, Bill Vanek wrote:
On Dec 23, 2023, da pickle wrote
(in article<[email protected]>):
On 12/23/2023 11:01 AM, Bill Vanek wrote:
On Dec 23, 2023, Bradley K. Sherman wrote
(in article <um6lf4$ol4$[email protected]>):
Bill Vanek <[email protected]> wrote:
On Dec 22, 2023, Bradley K. Sherman wrote
(in article <um4bi4$lql$[email protected]>):
da pickle<[email protected]> wrote:
On 12/22/2023 6:58 AM, Bradley K. Sherman wrote:
da pickle<[email protected]> wrote:...
...This is silly. Set a limit on attempts or be doomed to write nonsense.
If you never get ahead ... you report:
...
My friend quit after 50 tries ... down 4 ... never down more than 8.
I downloaded 10,000 flips from random.org (a file of 1's and
0's) and ran a Perl script against it that doesn't quit. I
got a maximum run of 85 straight losses.
You confused me.
...
Yes, sorry. That was very unclear. I mean that I played through the 10,000 flips like this:
1. Set count to 0
2. If next flip is "1" increment count, else decrement count.
3. If count > 0, return to (1.)
All I was doing was recording the greatest number of flips to get to +1.
"85 straight losses" just means that the counter got to -85 at one point.
--bks
I saw similar numbers in my sims. My sim was intended to show how many times
the player with one bet never got behind in a sim of X trials. It was what
one would expect - there were always some sims where that player never got
behind even one bet no matter how many trials I used. Obviously, the more
trials in a sim, the lower the number of sims where he never got behind.
Exactly what the math would tell you.
What does -85 or 85 straight losses mean ...
Well maybe we have come a bit closer to understanding why you keep claiming no one is answering your questions. Do you understand that you replied with a
question to a post that has the answer in that very post, and indeed was the
whole purpose of that post? Why don’t you try looking just a few lines above the start of your reply for BKS's words, "85 straight losses just means...”, and then read the rest of that sentence. Hope this helps.
Does not help at all.
Please use more words to explain what you think is so simple to understand.
I do not understand what the counter is or whether it actually is
counting what I am interesting in understanding what you are talking about.
If 85 straight losses means that the person that does not lose on the
first 50/50 bet loses one net bet 85 times in a row ... then the
advantage is more than I thought.
On 12/23/2023 1:59 PM, Bill Vanek wrote:
On Dec 23, 2023, da pickle wrote
(in article<[email protected]>):
On 12/23/2023 11:22 AM, Bill Vanek wrote:
On Dec 23, 2023, da pickle wrote
(in article<[email protected]>):
Again ... you cut my post
I have answered your other questions in my first post.
I agree that I have a 50/50 chance on the first toss ... no advantage. That has nothing to do with the "bet" proposed.
Repeated 50/50 tosses in a series go back and forth in a 50/50 result on "every" try. If you leave when you win the first try ... your opponent
on the other side cannot try to get even (50/50) on the next toss. There is no series in this case.
You mathematicians show me the series where both sides do NOT trade
being even or one side ahead one net bet "ever" during the series. Only ONE side "stays" one net bet or more ahead forever (and that side did
NOT win the first bet).
I did not limit the loss side, but you might start with the number of times only ONE side gets behind 100 net bets (but that side did not win the first toss).
No magical thinking required. Just don't change the bet.
I did not limit the loss side, but you might start with the number of times only ONE side gets behind 100 net bets (but that side did not win
the first toss).
Please explain clearly to me how that is not a risk of ruin situation. One
side has 100 bets, and the other has one bet to lose, all in a series of
even
money bets, and you want to know the chances of one side or the other losing
all his bets. I’m waiting. BTW, that question has been answered. Are you
just oblivious to that? You are suggesting that we “start with the number
of timesonly ONE side gets behind 100 net bets... “, something that Tim
did
start with, long, long ago.
This is a risk of ruin situation. Address my post.Oh my god. Am I reading this right? You are saying this *is* a risk of ruin bet? Is that correct? You are saying that the bet you have been talking about
all along really is a risk of ruin bet? About time.
Still running, eh!
...
Yes, sorry. That was very unclear. I mean that I played through the >>>>>>> 10,000 flips like this:
1. Set count to 0
2. If next flip is "1" increment count, else decrement count.
3. If count > 0, return to (1.)
All I was doing was recording the greatest number of flips to get to +1.
"85 straight losses" just means that the counter got to -85 at one point.
What does "85 straight losses" mean in this example?
...
On Dec 23, 2023, da pickle wrote
(in article<[email protected]>):
On 12/23/2023 2:05 PM, Bill Vanek wrote:
On Dec 23, 2023, da pickle wrote
(in article<[email protected]>):
On 12/23/2023 11:01 AM, Bill Vanek wrote:
On Dec 23, 2023, Bradley K. Sherman wrote
(in article <um6lf4$ol4$[email protected]>):
Bill Vanek <[email protected]> wrote:
On Dec 22, 2023, Bradley K. Sherman wrote
(in article <um4bi4$lql$[email protected]>):
da pickle<[email protected]> wrote:
On 12/22/2023 6:58 AM, Bradley K. Sherman wrote:I downloaded 10,000 flips from random.org (a file of 1's and
da pickle<[email protected]> wrote:...
...This is silly. Set a limit on attempts or be doomed to write >>>>>>>>>> nonsense.
If you never get ahead ... you report:
...
My friend quit after 50 tries ... down 4 ... never down more than 8. >>>>>>>>
0's) and ran a Perl script against it that doesn't quit. I
got a maximum run of 85 straight losses.
You confused me.
...
Yes, sorry. That was very unclear. I mean that I played through the >>>>>> 10,000 flips like this:
1. Set count to 0
2. If next flip is "1" increment count, else decrement count.
3. If count > 0, return to (1.)
All I was doing was recording the greatest number of flips to get to +1. >>>>>> "85 straight losses" just means that the counter got to -85 at one point.
--bks
I saw similar numbers in my sims. My sim was intended to show how many >>>>> times
the player with one bet never got behind in a sim of X trials. It was what
one would expect - there were always some sims where that player never got
behind even one bet no matter how many trials I used. Obviously, the more >>>>> trials in a sim, the lower the number of sims where he never got behind. >>>>> Exactly what the math would tell you.
What does -85 or 85 straight losses mean ...
Well maybe we have come a bit closer to understanding why you keep claiming >>> no one is answering your questions. Do you understand that you replied with >>> a
question to a post that has the answer in that very post, and indeed was the
whole purpose of that post? Why don’t you try looking just a few lines >>> above the start of your reply for BKS's words, "85 straight losses just
means...”, and then read the rest of that sentence. Hope this helps.
Does not help at all.
I’m not the least bit surprised.
Please use more words to explain what you think is so simple to understand.
I have good news for you. I no longer think your problem is cognitive decline. I think nothing at all has changed, and you have always been like this with your elliptical, wandering narratives that mean next to nothing.
I do not understand what the counter is or whether it actually is
counting what I am interesting in understanding what you are talking about. >>
If 85 straight losses means that the person that does not lose on the
first 50/50 bet loses one net bet 85 times in a row ... then the
advantage is more than I thought.
Maybe it’s time to ask yourself if you might just be very wrong about this whole thing. Do you ever do that, or is that blocked by your ego? And maybe you could apologize to Tim, and then he might steer you towards some means to get a very basic understanding of probability.
da pickle <[email protected]> wrote:
...
Yes, sorry. That was very unclear. I mean that I played through the >>>>>>>> 10,000 flips like this:
1. Set count to 0
2. If next flip is "1" increment count, else decrement count.
3. If count > 0, return to (1.)
All I was doing was recording the greatest number of flips to get to +1.
"85 straight losses" just means that the counter got to -85 at one point.
What does "85 straight losses" mean in this example?
...
It was a mistake on my part. I should not have used the
word "straight". All it means is that, in my simulation,
one player walked into the random.org coin flip casino
and was down 85 bets. That's the only question I was
looking at.
There's a simpler way to look at your coinflip game. Just
download 10,000 flips (the max allowed at random.org) and
subtract the number of "heads" from the number of "tails".
That's what the house made or lost. There's no way to
avoid that conclusion, assuming an even money bet on each
flip. The "strategy" of the player(s) is completely
irrelevant.
--bks
On Dec 23, 2023, da pickle wrote
Still running, eh!
What does that mean? Are you now saying it’s *not* risk of ruin? Even though your exact words are that it is?
On December 22, da pickle wrote:
The game is a series of coin tosses. Each toss is a new bet.
If I win the first toss ... I quit. If I lose the first toss, I toss until >> I get ahead one bet and I quit.
You'll never play again? Forever?
--
Rich
On 12/24/2023 8:08 AM, Bradley K. Sherman wrote:
da pickle<[email protected]> wrote:
...Yes, sorry. That was very unclear. I mean that I played through the
10,000 flips like this:
1. Set count to 0
2. If next flip is "1" increment count, else decrement count. 3. If count > 0, return to (1.)
All I was doing was recording the greatest number of flips to get to
+1.
"85 straight losses" just means that the counter got to -85 at one
point.
What does "85 straight losses" mean in this example?
...
It was a mistake on my part. I should not have used the
word "straight". All it means is that, in my simulation,
one player walked into the random.org coin flip casino
and was down 85 bets. That's the only question I was
looking at.
There's a simpler way to look at your coinflip game. Just
download 10,000 flips (the max allowed at random.org) and
subtract the number of "heads" from the number of "tails".
That's what the house made or lost. There's no way to
avoid that conclusion, assuming an even money bet on each
flip. The "strategy" of the player(s) is completely
irrelevant.
--bks
Thanks ... I am not really interested in whether he loses 85 or a
millions net bets. I would like to know if the one net bet loss passes
back and forth between the two players along the way.
It seems to me that a 50/50 game is just going to be a situation that
neither side ever gets infinitely ahead no matter if they play to
infinity. It seems to me that the net bet win/loss seeks even with
maybe large net losses to either side cancelling each other out along
the long long way to even again.
That is just my "feeling" and I do not claim it is "correct" but it
seems like that is better than the idea that even money bets are not
really even money bets.
Thanks for your information. If you can figure out a program that
tracks the net one win transfer back and forth in a 50/50 game, that
would be interesting.
On Dec 24, 2023, da pickle wrote
(in article<[email protected]>):
On 12/24/2023 8:08 AM, Bradley K. Sherman wrote:
da pickle<[email protected]> wrote:
...
Yes, sorry. That was very unclear. I mean that I played through the >>>>>>>>>> 10,000 flips like this:
1. Set count to 0
2. If next flip is "1" increment count, else decrement count. >>>>>>>>>> 3. If count > 0, return to (1.)
All I was doing was recording the greatest number of flips to get to >>>>>>>>>> +1.
"85 straight losses" just means that the counter got to -85 at one >>>>>>>>>> point.
What does "85 straight losses" mean in this example?
...
It was a mistake on my part. I should not have used the
word "straight". All it means is that, in my simulation,
one player walked into the random.org coin flip casino
and was down 85 bets. That's the only question I was
looking at.
There's a simpler way to look at your coinflip game. Just
download 10,000 flips (the max allowed at random.org) and
subtract the number of "heads" from the number of "tails".
That's what the house made or lost. There's no way to
avoid that conclusion, assuming an even money bet on each
flip. The "strategy" of the player(s) is completely
irrelevant.
--bks
Thanks ... I am not really interested in whether he loses 85 or a
millions net bets. I would like to know if the one net bet loss passes
back and forth between the two players along the way.
Seriously? You are asking if sometimes two players in an even money game will sometimes trade the lead? One player is ahead, then the other player is ahead, and so on... why would you think you even have to ask that question? Have you never personally been ahead and then behind etc. while gambling? You ask that like you are some deeply thoughtful person who asks the tough questions that others never thought of.
It seems to me that a 50/50 game is just going to be a situation that
neither side ever gets infinitely ahead no matter if they play to
infinity. It seems to me that the net bet win/loss seeks even with
maybe large net losses to either side cancelling each other out along
the long long way to even again.
That is just my "feeling" and I do not claim it is "correct" but it
seems like that is better than the idea that even money bets are not
really even money bets.
Thanks for your information. If you can figure out a program that
tracks the net one win transfer back and forth in a 50/50 game, that
would be interesting.
“Seems”? “Feeling”? “If you can figure out a program”? You are oblivious to the world around you. ALL of the goofy questions you are asking here, and ALL of your silly claims have been addressed, and ANY program you can wish for has been written, probably thousands of time over hundreds of years (except for the computer programs...). You posted your resume here, and there were technical job histories there, so I don’t get this at all. You sound like a liberal. I used to have the formulas that would answer your questions programmed into my TI82. It’s just that easy. You don’t need to feel or guess or intuit anything on the subject you brought up. It’s all known already, and has been for a very long time. You could figure out all of this yourself with very little work, but you choose to look silly here instead.
On 12/24/2023 12:04 PM, Bill Vanek wrote:
On Dec 24, 2023, da pickle wrote
(in article<[email protected]>):
On 12/24/2023 8:08 AM, Bradley K. Sherman wrote:
da pickle<[email protected]> wrote:
...Yes, sorry. That was very unclear. I mean that I played through the
10,000 flips like this:
1. Set count to 0
2. If next flip is "1" increment count, else decrement count.
3. If count > 0, return to (1.)
All I was doing was recording the greatest number of flips to get
to
+1.
"85 straight losses" just means that the counter got to -85 at one
point.
What does "85 straight losses" mean in this example?
...
It was a mistake on my part. I should not have used the
word "straight". All it means is that, in my simulation,
one player walked into the random.org coin flip casino
and was down 85 bets. That's the only question I was
looking at.
There's a simpler way to look at your coinflip game. Just
download 10,000 flips (the max allowed at random.org) and
subtract the number of "heads" from the number of "tails".
That's what the house made or lost. There's no way to
avoid that conclusion, assuming an even money bet on each
flip. The "strategy" of the player(s) is completely
irrelevant.
--bks
Thanks ... I am not really interested in whether he loses 85 or a millions net bets. I would like to know if the one net bet loss passes back and forth between the two players along the way.
Seriously? You are asking if sometimes two players in an even money game will
sometimes trade the lead? One player is ahead, then the other player is ahead, and so on... why would you think you even have to ask that question? Have you never personally been ahead and then behind etc. while gambling? You
ask that like you are some deeply thoughtful person who asks the tough questions that others never thought of.
It seems to me that a 50/50 game is just going to be a situation that neither side ever gets infinitely ahead no matter if they play to infinity. It seems to me that the net bet win/loss seeks even with
maybe large net losses to either side cancelling each other out along
the long long way to even again.
That is just my "feeling" and I do not claim it is "correct" but it
seems like that is better than the idea that even money bets are not really even money bets.
Thanks for your information. If you can figure out a program that
tracks the net one win transfer back and forth in a 50/50 game, that would be interesting.
“Seems”? “Feeling”? “If you can figure out a program”? You are oblivious to the world around you. ALL of the goofy questions you are asking
here, and ALL of your silly claims have been addressed, and ANY program you can wish for has been written, probably thousands of time over hundreds of years (except for the computer programs...). You posted your resume here, and
there were technical job histories there, so I don’t get this at all. You sound like a liberal. I used to have the formulas that would answer your questions programmed into my TI82. It’s just that easy. You don’t need to
feel or guess or intuit anything on the subject you brought up. It’s all known already, and has been for a very long time. You could figure out all of
this yourself with very little work, but you choose to look silly here instead.
My simple question is ...
In a non-biased 50/50 game does the net one bet ahead pass back and
forth to each side along the way?
Does that happen a lot more times before you might get to a 85 straight losses run ... you "could" you just start with 85 straight losses that
one really bad time? How often would that be since you only want to win
once?
I think if you win the first time ... you should stop right there. Even
if you lose the first time, you might go through a period of behind even
more or maybe get even again ... you might decide that quitting even is
not so bad.
I really do think you would have an "advantage" if you quit while you
were one net bet ahead ... especially if it was the first try.
On December 24, da pickle wrote:
The game is a series of coin tosses. Each toss is a new bet.
If I win the first toss ... I quit. If I lose the first toss, I toss until >>>> I get ahead one bet and I quit.
You'll never play again? Forever?
I will play until I win ONE TIME ... one net bet.
I think if two people use an unbiased 50/50 coin flipping machine ...
only one of the two will "win" the whole thing on the first flip ... if
"I" do not win on the first flip, I think "we" will each get back to
even net wins (zero) along the way and it will be like a "new" game.
If we each start off with 100 bets ... the smart guys might find that
either side might win that first bet ... it is 50/50. The game is over
if "my" side wins that first bet. The "other" side lost.
You said you'll quit if you gain a profit of one bet.
Will you play the game again the next day, or will
you REALLY AND TRULY quit?
Of course you miss the point of the question, as your
confusion is ineducable.
Sklansky wrote that the notion of poker as a sequence of separate
sessions is an illusion. All poker sessions, until they cover you in
dirt, is actually one long session. That's the same point, which
you also miss.
--
Rich
On Dec 24, 2023, da pickle wrote
I really do think you would have an "advantage" if you quit while you
were one net bet ahead ... especially if it was the first try.
The only advantage you would have is that you cannot lose back that one 50/50 bet you were lucky enough to win.
You actually sound like you have softened your stance on this. Good choice.
On 12/24/2023 1:50 PM, Bill Vanek wrote:
On Dec 24, 2023, da pickle wrote
I really do think you would have an "advantage" if you quit while you were one net bet ahead ... especially if it was the first try.
The only advantage you would have is that you cannot lose back that one 50/50
bet you were lucky enough to win.
You actually sound like you have softened your stance on this. Good choice.
It is nice that you finally admitted that the person who quits while
ahead one bet has an advantage in a 50/50 betting string.
[I did not soften anything ... that was my "stance" all along.]
Merry Christmas
On Dec 25, 2023, da pickle wrote
(in article<[email protected]>):
On 12/24/2023 1:50 PM, Bill Vanek wrote:
On Dec 24, 2023, da pickle wroteIt is nice that you finally admitted that the person who quits while
I really do think you would have an "advantage" if you quit while you
were one net bet ahead ... especially if it was the first try.
The only advantage you would have is that you cannot lose back that one
50/50
bet you were lucky enough to win.
You actually sound like you have softened your stance on this. Good choice. >>
ahead one bet has an advantage in a 50/50 betting string.
[I did not soften anything ... that was my "stance" all along.]
Merry Christmas
You celebrate Christmas with total dishonesty? Interesting.
On 12/24/2023 3:34 PM, RichD wrote:
On December 24, da pickle wrote:
The game is a series of coin tosses. Each toss is a new bet.
If I win the first toss ... I quit. If I lose the first toss, I
toss until
I get ahead one bet and I quit.
You'll never play again? Forever?
I will play until I win ONE TIME ... one net bet.
I think if two people use an unbiased 50/50 coin flipping machine ...
only one of the two will "win" the whole thing on the first flip ... if
"I" do not win on the first flip, I think "we" will each get back to
even net wins (zero) along the way and it will be like a "new" game.
If we each start off with 100 bets ... the smart guys might find that
either side might win that first bet ... it is 50/50. The game is over
if "my" side wins that first bet. The "other" side lost.
You said you'll quit if you gain a profit of one bet.
Will you play the game again the next day, or will
you REALLY AND TRULY quit?
Of course you miss the point of the question, as your
confusion is ineducable.
Sklansky wrote that the notion of poker as a sequence of separate
sessions is an illusion. All poker sessions, until they cover you in
dirt, is actually one long session. That's the same point, which
you also miss.
--
Rich
Poker is not a 50/50 flip.
The idea of poker being one long session is certainly interesting, but
it works just like a regular "single" session if the people change seats
or leave and are replaced with new players and you get tired for keeping
up with the tells that might "vary" you thoughts of the odds on every
single hand and board or players left.
I do not think it is the "same point" at all.
I say the person than quits while ahead one net bet in a coin flipping
game has the advantage. [It is a different idea ... and if the one net
bet is "worth it" ... it would be a "good bet" to try sometime.]
I do not play roulette because I do not feel like I will get "lucky".
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