50/50 game ... $100 per bet
If you are the only one that can quit, will you play?
On Dec 17, 2023, da pickle wrote
(in article<[email protected]>):
50/50 game ... $100 per bet
If you are the only one that can quit, will you play?
How many times do you need this question answered to consider it answered? I have said no repeatedly, and given the reason (it is zero EV, and an utter waste of time). Exactly how many more times do I need to say “no" to make you finally understand that... the answer is “no"?
On 12/17/2023 7:54 PM, Bill Vanek wrote:
On Dec 17, 2023, da pickle wrote
(in article<[email protected]>):
50/50 game ... $100 per bet
If you are the only one that can quit, will you play?
How many times do you need this question answered to consider it answered? I
have said no repeatedly, and given the reason (it is zero EV, and an utter waste of time). Exactly how many more times do I need to say “no" to make you finally understand that... the answer is “no"?
So, you think the risk to win $100 is too great?
Why?
On Monday, December 18, 2023 at 12:41:57 PM UTC-5, Bill Vanek wrote:
On Dec 18, 2023, da pickle wrote
(in article<[email protected]>):
On 12/17/2023 7:54 PM, Bill Vanek wrote:Look, Jerry, I clearly answered that question in the very post you are
On Dec 17, 2023, da pickle wrote
(in article<[email protected]>):
50/50 game ... $100 per bet
If you are the only one that can quit, will you play?
How many times do you need this question answered to consider it answered? I
have said no repeatedly, and given the reason (it is zero EV, and an utter >>>> waste of time). Exactly how many more times do I need to say “no" to make
you finally understand that... the answer is “no"?
So, you think the risk to win $100 is too great?
Why?
replying to.
Let me see if you can still think at all. You say that your “advantage”, >> whatever you mean by that, is based on you playing once, and then quitting >> while ahead one bet. So here’s the problem I can’t seem to grasp at all: >> let’s say you win your one bet and quit, and that’s that. But what if a >> week later you are tempted to do it again? You keep saying you can do this >> once with an advantage. But what changed a week later where you can’t do it
again? And if you *can* do it again, why can’t you just get rich doing it >> over and over again?
And here’s another thought experiment: would you get up on a stage and
present this idea of yours in front of a seminar for actuaries, or for math >> profs who teach probability? If so, what would you expect the reaction to be?
Honestly, the likely reaction would be polite confusion.
On Dec 18, 2023, da pickle wrote
(in article<[email protected]>):
On 12/17/2023 7:54 PM, Bill Vanek wrote:
On Dec 17, 2023, da pickle wrote
(in article<[email protected]>):
50/50 game ... $100 per bet
If you are the only one that can quit, will you play?
How many times do you need this question answered to consider it answered? I
have said no repeatedly, and given the reason (it is zero EV, and an utter >>> waste of time). Exactly how many more times do I need to say “no" to make >>> you finally understand that... the answer is “no"?
So, you think the risk to win $100 is too great?
Why?
Look, Jerry, I clearly answered that question in the very post you are replying to.
Let me see if you can still think at all. You say that your “advantage”, whatever you mean by that, is based on you playing once, and then quitting while ahead one bet. So here’s the problem I can’t seem to grasp at all: let’s say you win your one bet and quit, and that’s that. But what if a week later you are tempted to do it again? You keep saying you can do this once with an advantage. But what changed a week later where you can’t do it again? And if you *can* do it again, why can’t you just get rich doing it over and over again?
And here’s another thought experiment: would you get up on a stage and present this idea of yours in front of a seminar for actuaries, or for math profs who teach probability? If so, what would you expect the reaction to be?
On 12/18/2023 11:41 AM, Bill Vanek wrote:
On Dec 18, 2023, da pickle wrote
(in article<[email protected]>):
On 12/17/2023 7:54 PM, Bill Vanek wrote:
On Dec 17, 2023, da pickle wrote
(in article<[email protected]>):
50/50 game ... $100 per bet
If you are the only one that can quit, will you play?
How many times do you need this question answered to consider it answered? I
have said no repeatedly, and given the reason (it is zero EV, and an utter
waste of time). Exactly how many more times do I need to say “no" to make
you finally understand that... the answer is “no"?
So, you think the risk to win $100 is too great?
Why?
Look, Jerry, I clearly answered that question in the very post you are replying to.
Let me see if you can still think at all. You say that your “advantage”,
whatever you mean by that, is based on you playing once, and then quitting while ahead one bet. So here’s the problem I can’t seem to grasp at all:
let’s say you win your one bet and quit, and that’s that. But what if a week later you are tempted to do it again? You keep saying you can do this once with an advantage. But what changed a week later where you can’t do it
again? And if you *can* do it again, why can’t you just get rich doing it over and over again?
And here’s another thought experiment: would you get up on a stage and present this idea of yours in front of a seminar for actuaries, or for math profs who teach probability? If so, what would you expect the reaction to be?
Have you ever played roulette in a casino?
On Dec 19, 2023, da pickle wrote
(in article<[email protected]>):
On 12/18/2023 11:41 AM, Bill Vanek wrote:
On Dec 18, 2023, da pickle wrote
(in article<[email protected]>):
On 12/17/2023 7:54 PM, Bill Vanek wrote:
On Dec 17, 2023, da pickle wrote
(in article<[email protected]>):
50/50 game ... $100 per bet
If you are the only one that can quit, will you play?
How many times do you need this question answered to consider it
answered? I
have said no repeatedly, and given the reason (it is zero EV, and an utter
waste of time). Exactly how many more times do I need to say “no" to >>>>> make
you finally understand that... the answer is “no"?
So, you think the risk to win $100 is too great?
Why?
Look, Jerry, I clearly answered that question in the very post you are
replying to.
Let me see if you can still think at all. You say that your “advantage”,
whatever you mean by that, is based on you playing once, and then quitting >>> while ahead one bet. So here’s the problem I can’t seem to grasp at all:
let’s say you win your one bet and quit, and that’s that. But what if a >>> week later you are tempted to do it again? You keep saying you can do this >>> once with an advantage. But what changed a week later where you can’t do >>> it
again? And if you *can* do it again, why can’t you just get rich doing it >>> over and over again?
And here’s another thought experiment: would you get up on a stage and >>> present this idea of yours in front of a seminar for actuaries, or for math >>> profs who teach probability? If so, what would you expect the reaction to >>> be?
Have you ever played roulette in a casino?
I didn’t see a single answer to my two simple questions. The answer to your question is yes.
On 12/19/2023 10:42 AM, Bill Vanek wrote:
On Dec 19, 2023, da pickle wrote
(in article<[email protected]>):
On 12/18/2023 11:41 AM, Bill Vanek wrote:
On Dec 18, 2023, da pickle wrote
(in article<[email protected]>):
On 12/17/2023 7:54 PM, Bill Vanek wrote:
On Dec 17, 2023, da pickle wrote
(in article<[email protected]>):
50/50 game ... $100 per bet
If you are the only one that can quit, will you play?
How many times do you need this question answered to consider it answered? I
have said no repeatedly, and given the reason (it is zero EV, and an
utter
waste of time). Exactly how many more times do I need to say “no" to
make
you finally understand that... the answer is “no"?
So, you think the risk to win $100 is too great?
Why?
Look, Jerry, I clearly answered that question in the very post you are replying to.
Let me see if you can still think at all. You say that your “advantage”,
whatever you mean by that, is based on you playing once, and then quitting
while ahead one bet. So here’s the problem I can’t seem to grasp at all:
let’s say you win your one bet and quit, and that’s that. But what if
a
week later you are tempted to do it again? You keep saying you can do this
once with an advantage. But what changed a week later where you can’t do
it
again? And if you *can* do it again, why can’t you just get rich doing
it
over and over again?
And here’s another thought experiment: would you get up on a stage and
present this idea of yours in front of a seminar for actuaries, or for math
profs who teach probability? If so, what would you expect the reaction to
be?
Have you ever played roulette in a casino?
I didn’t see a single answer to my two simple questions. The answer to your
question is yes.
The answer to your questions is yes if I was invited ... I would expect
that I would not be invited but if I was, it would be interesting to
hear their views.
As to your playing roulette ... what bet or bets did you place and why
would you play a less that 50/50 bet at all?
Thank you for your response.
On Dec 19, 2023, da pickle wrote
(in article<[email protected]>):
On 12/19/2023 10:42 AM, Bill Vanek wrote:
On Dec 19, 2023, da pickle wrote
(in article<[email protected]>):
On 12/18/2023 11:41 AM, Bill Vanek wrote:
On Dec 18, 2023, da pickle wrote
(in article<[email protected]>):
On 12/17/2023 7:54 PM, Bill Vanek wrote:
On Dec 17, 2023, da pickle wrote
(in article<[email protected]>):
50/50 game ... $100 per bet
If you are the only one that can quit, will you play?
How many times do you need this question answered to consider it >>>>>>> answered? I
have said no repeatedly, and given the reason (it is zero EV, and an >>>>>>> utter
waste of time). Exactly how many more times do I need to say “no" to >>>>>>> make
you finally understand that... the answer is “no"?
So, you think the risk to win $100 is too great?
Why?
Look, Jerry, I clearly answered that question in the very post you are >>>>> replying to.
Let me see if you can still think at all. You say that your
“advantage”,
whatever you mean by that, is based on you playing once, and then quitting
while ahead one bet. So here’s the problem I can’t seem to grasp at >>>>> all:
let’s say you win your one bet and quit, and that’s that. But what if >>>>> a
week later you are tempted to do it again? You keep saying you can do this
once with an advantage. But what changed a week later where you can’t do
it
again? And if you *can* do it again, why can’t you just get rich doing >>>>> it
over and over again?
And here’s another thought experiment: would you get up on a stage and >>>>> present this idea of yours in front of a seminar for actuaries, or for >>>>> math
profs who teach probability? If so, what would you expect the reaction to >>>>> be?
Have you ever played roulette in a casino?
I didn’t see a single answer to my two simple questions. The answer to >>> your
question is yes.
The answer to your questions is yes if I was invited ... I would expect
that I would not be invited but if I was, it would be interesting to
hear their views.
What about the other question? What changes after you win your bet the first time? What makes it a bad bet a week later?
As to your playing roulette ... what bet or bets did you place and why
would you play a less that 50/50 bet at all?
Thank you for your response.
Cover bets. I would try to get a seat at a BJ table next to the roulette so I could pretend to wait for the “right moment” to jump over and place a bet while playing. The “right moment” was whenever I was pretty sure the pit would notice. It helps to look like just another stupid gambler, and doesn’t cost much.
On 12/19/2023 12:10 PM, Bill Vanek wrote:
On Dec 19, 2023, da pickle wrote
(in article<[email protected]>):
On 12/19/2023 10:42 AM, Bill Vanek wrote:
On Dec 19, 2023, da pickle wrote
(in article<[email protected]>):
On 12/18/2023 11:41 AM, Bill Vanek wrote:
On Dec 18, 2023, da pickle wrote
(in article<[email protected]>):
On 12/17/2023 7:54 PM, Bill Vanek wrote:
On Dec 17, 2023, da pickle wrote
(in article<[email protected]>):
50/50 game ... $100 per bet
If you are the only one that can quit, will you play?
How many times do you need this question answered to consider it
answered? I
have said no repeatedly, and given the reason (it is zero EV, and an
utter
waste of time). Exactly how many more times do I need to say “no" to
make
you finally understand that... the answer is “no"?
So, you think the risk to win $100 is too great?
Why?
Look, Jerry, I clearly answered that question in the very post you are
replying to.
Let me see if you can still think at all. You say that your “advantage”,
whatever you mean by that, is based on you playing once, and then quitting
while ahead one bet. So here’s the problem I can’t seem to grasp at
all:
let’s say you win your one bet and quit, and that’s that. But what
if
a
week later you are tempted to do it again? You keep saying you can do
this
once with an advantage. But what changed a week later where you can’t
do
it
again? And if you *can* do it again, why can’t you just get rich doing
it
over and over again?
And here’s another thought experiment: would you get up on a stage and
present this idea of yours in front of a seminar for actuaries, or for
math
profs who teach probability? If so, what would you expect the reaction
to
be?
Have you ever played roulette in a casino?
I didn’t see a single answer to my two simple questions. The answer to
your
question is yes.
The answer to your questions is yes if I was invited ... I would expect that I would not be invited but if I was, it would be interesting to
hear their views.
What about the other question? What changes after you win your bet the first
time? What makes it a bad bet a week later?
I hope to win the first time. It is not necessarily a "bad bet" the
next time. I think I would get your hundred if you would play. Why
would not take it? You could win a lot and not lose but a hundred.
Continue? I did that maybe ten times at most all those years I played BJ, and they had value outside of the expectation. If I get to play a +EV game longer because the pit thinks I’m an idiot, that’s the value. The value of that one bet with you is very, very -EV. You keep forgetting that you were asking for 100:1 payoff in a game where you are a 100:1 favorite to win that bet. Do you not understand the insanity of that? And if all you meant this time isAs to your playing roulette ... what bet or bets did you place and why would you play a less that 50/50 bet at all?
Thank you for your response.
Cover bets. I would try to get a seat at a BJ table next to the roulette so I
could pretend to wait for the “right moment” to jump over and place a bet
while playing. The “right moment” was whenever I was pretty sure the pit
would notice. It helps to look like just another stupid gambler, and doesn’t cost much.
You continue to place less than 50/50 bets to cover your one odds-on bet
at BJ? And yet you will not play for just a single $100 loss with me.
Thanks for your thoughts.
On Dec 19, 2023, da pickle wrote
(in article<[email protected]>):
On 12/19/2023 12:10 PM, Bill Vanek wrote:
On Dec 19, 2023, da pickle wrote
(in article<[email protected]>):
On 12/19/2023 10:42 AM, Bill Vanek wrote:
On Dec 19, 2023, da pickle wrote
(in article<[email protected]>):
On 12/18/2023 11:41 AM, Bill Vanek wrote:
On Dec 18, 2023, da pickle wrote
(in article<[email protected]>):
On 12/17/2023 7:54 PM, Bill Vanek wrote:
On Dec 17, 2023, da pickle wrote
(in article<[email protected]>): >>>>>>>>>
50/50 game ... $100 per bet
If you are the only one that can quit, will you play?
How many times do you need this question answered to consider it >>>>>>>>> answered? I
have said no repeatedly, and given the reason (it is zero EV, and an >>>>>>>>> utter
waste of time). Exactly how many more times do I need to say “no" to
make
you finally understand that... the answer is “no"?
So, you think the risk to win $100 is too great?
Why?
Look, Jerry, I clearly answered that question in the very post you are >>>>>>> replying to.
Let me see if you can still think at all. You say that your
“advantage”,
whatever you mean by that, is based on you playing once, and then >>>>>>> quitting
while ahead one bet. So here’s the problem I can’t seem to grasp at >>>>>>> all:
let’s say you win your one bet and quit, and that’s that. But what >>>>>>> if
a
week later you are tempted to do it again? You keep saying you can do >>>>>>> this
once with an advantage. But what changed a week later where you can’t >>>>>>> do
it
again? And if you *can* do it again, why can’t you just get rich doing
it
over and over again?
And here’s another thought experiment: would you get up on a stage and
present this idea of yours in front of a seminar for actuaries, or for >>>>>>> math
profs who teach probability? If so, what would you expect the reaction >>>>>>> to
be?
Have you ever played roulette in a casino?
I didn’t see a single answer to my two simple questions. The answer to >>>>> your
question is yes.
The answer to your questions is yes if I was invited ... I would expect >>>> that I would not be invited but if I was, it would be interesting to
hear their views.
What about the other question? What changes after you win your bet the first
time? What makes it a bad bet a week later?
I hope to win the first time. It is not necessarily a "bad bet" the
next time. I think I would get your hundred if you would play. Why
would not take it? You could win a lot and not lose but a hundred.
You “hope to win”? You sound very much like you are backing off your claim to have that advantage you were talking about, where you “win every single time". Is that the case? If so, congratulations.
Continue? I did that maybe ten times at most all those years I played BJ, and they had value outside of the expectation. If I get to play a +EV game longer because the pit thinks I’m an idiot, that’s the value. The value of that one bet with you is very, very -EV. You keep forgetting that you were asking for 100:1 payoff in a game where you are a 100:1 favorite to win that bet. Do you not understand the insanity of that? And if all you meant this time is $100 bets in coin flips, you are still {YOURBANKROLL}:1 to win my single bet before I win all your bets. You said I can’t quit, right? So what is the value for me? Entertainment? I’m not a gambler. It does nothing for me.As to your playing roulette ... what bet or bets did you place and why >>>> would you play a less that 50/50 bet at all?
Thank you for your response.
Cover bets. I would try to get a seat at a BJ table next to the roulette so >>> I
could pretend to wait for the “right moment” to jump over and place a >>> bet
while playing. The “right moment” was whenever I was pretty sure the pit
would notice. It helps to look like just another stupid gambler, and
doesn’t cost much.
You continue to place less than 50/50 bets to cover your one odds-on bet
at BJ? And yet you will not play for just a single $100 loss with me.
Thanks for your thoughts.
On 12/19/2023 1:16 PM, Bill Vanek wrote:
On Dec 19, 2023, da pickle wrote
(in article<[email protected]>):
On 12/19/2023 12:10 PM, Bill Vanek wrote:
On Dec 19, 2023, da pickle wrote
(in article<[email protected]>):
On 12/19/2023 10:42 AM, Bill Vanek wrote:
On Dec 19, 2023, da pickle wrote
(in article<[email protected]>):
On 12/18/2023 11:41 AM, Bill Vanek wrote:
On Dec 18, 2023, da pickle wrote
(in article<[email protected]>):
On 12/17/2023 7:54 PM, Bill Vanek wrote:
On Dec 17, 2023, da pickle wrote
(in article<[email protected]>):
50/50 game ... $100 per bet
If you are the only one that can quit, will you play?
How many times do you need this question answered to consider it
answered? I
have said no repeatedly, and given the reason (it is zero EV, and an
utter
waste of time). Exactly how many more times do I need to say “no"
to
make
you finally understand that... the answer is “no"?
So, you think the risk to win $100 is too great?
Why?
Look, Jerry, I clearly answered that question in the very post you are
replying to.
Let me see if you can still think at all. You say that your “advantage”,
whatever you mean by that, is based on you playing once, and then
quitting
while ahead one bet. So here’s the problem I can’t seem to grasp
at
all:
let’s say you win your one bet and quit, and that’s that. But what
if
a
week later you are tempted to do it again? You keep saying you can do
this
once with an advantage. But what changed a week later where you can’t
do
it
again? And if you *can* do it again, why can’t you just get rich
doing
it
over and over again?
And here’s another thought experiment: would you get up on a stage
and
present this idea of yours in front of a seminar for actuaries, or for
math
profs who teach probability? If so, what would you expect the reaction
to
be?
Have you ever played roulette in a casino?
I didn’t see a single answer to my two simple questions. The answer to
your
question is yes.
The answer to your questions is yes if I was invited ... I would expect
that I would not be invited but if I was, it would be interesting to hear their views.
What about the other question? What changes after you win your bet the first
time? What makes it a bad bet a week later?
I hope to win the first time. It is not necessarily a "bad bet" the
next time. I think I would get your hundred if you would play. Why
would not take it? You could win a lot and not lose but a hundred.
You “hope to win”? You sound very much like you are backing off your claim to have that advantage you were talking about, where you “win every single time". Is that the case? If so, congratulations.
As to your playing roulette ... what bet or bets did you place and why
would you play a less that 50/50 bet at all?
Thank you for your response.
Cover bets. I would try to get a seat at a BJ table next to the roulette
so
I
could pretend to wait for the “right moment” to jump over and place a
bet
while playing. The “right moment” was whenever I was pretty sure the
pit
would notice. It helps to look like just another stupid gambler, and doesn’t cost much.
You continue to place less than 50/50 bets to cover your one odds-on bet at BJ? And yet you will not play for just a single $100 loss with me. Thanks for your thoughts.Continue? I did that maybe ten times at most all those years I played BJ, and
they had value outside of the expectation. If I get to play a +EV game longer
because the pit thinks I’m an idiot, that’s the value. The value of that
one bet with you is very, very -EV. You keep forgetting that you were asking
for 100:1 payoff in a game where you are a 100:1 favorite to win that bet. Do
you not understand the insanity of that? And if all you meant this time is $100 bets in coin flips, you are still {YOURBANKROLL}:1 to win my single bet
before I win all your bets. You said I can’t quit, right? So what is the value for me? Entertainment? I’m not a gambler. It does nothing for me.
Thank you ... I have an advantage and nobody but a fool would play.
That is what started this whole mess. Thanks for clearing it up.
Game over. Maybe we can decide just how much the advantage might be.
On Dec 19, 2023, da pickle wrote
(in article<[email protected]>):
On 12/19/2023 1:16 PM, Bill Vanek wrote:
On Dec 19, 2023, da pickle wroteThank you ... I have an advantage and nobody but a fool would play.
(in article<[email protected]>):
On 12/19/2023 12:10 PM, Bill Vanek wrote:
On Dec 19, 2023, da pickle wrote
(in article<[email protected]>):
On 12/19/2023 10:42 AM, Bill Vanek wrote:
On Dec 19, 2023, da pickle wrote
(in article<[email protected]>):
On 12/18/2023 11:41 AM, Bill Vanek wrote:
On Dec 18, 2023, da pickle wrote
(in article<[email protected]>): >>>>>>>>>
On 12/17/2023 7:54 PM, Bill Vanek wrote:
On Dec 17, 2023, da pickle wrote
(in article<[email protected]>): >>>>>>>>>>>
50/50 game ... $100 per bet
If you are the only one that can quit, will you play?
How many times do you need this question answered to consider it >>>>>>>>>>> answered? I
have said no repeatedly, and given the reason (it is zero EV, and an
utter
waste of time). Exactly how many more times do I need to say “no" >>>>>>>>>>> to
make
you finally understand that... the answer is “no"?
So, you think the risk to win $100 is too great?
Why?
Look, Jerry, I clearly answered that question in the very post you are
replying to.
Let me see if you can still think at all. You say that your
“advantage”,
whatever you mean by that, is based on you playing once, and then >>>>>>>>> quitting
while ahead one bet. So here’s the problem I can’t seem to grasp >>>>>>>>> at
all:
let’s say you win your one bet and quit, and that’s that. But what
if
a
week later you are tempted to do it again? You keep saying you can do >>>>>>>>> this
once with an advantage. But what changed a week later where you >>>>>>>>> can’t
do
it
again? And if you *can* do it again, why can’t you just get rich >>>>>>>>> doing
it
over and over again?
And here’s another thought experiment: would you get up on a stage >>>>>>>>> and
present this idea of yours in front of a seminar for actuaries, or for
math
profs who teach probability? If so, what would you expect the reaction
to
be?
Have you ever played roulette in a casino?
I didn’t see a single answer to my two simple questions. The answer to
your
question is yes.
The answer to your questions is yes if I was invited ... I would expect >>>>>> that I would not be invited but if I was, it would be interesting to >>>>>> hear their views.
What about the other question? What changes after you win your bet the >>>>> first
time? What makes it a bad bet a week later?
I hope to win the first time. It is not necessarily a "bad bet" the
next time. I think I would get your hundred if you would play. Why
would not take it? You could win a lot and not lose but a hundred.
You “hope to win”? You sound very much like you are backing off your >>> claim to have that advantage you were talking about, where you “win every >>> single time". Is that the case? If so, congratulations.
Continue? I did that maybe ten times at most all those years I played BJ, >>> andAs to your playing roulette ... what bet or bets did you place and why >>>>>> would you play a less that 50/50 bet at all?
Thank you for your response.
Cover bets. I would try to get a seat at a BJ table next to the roulette >>>>> so
I
could pretend to wait for the “right moment” to jump over and place a >>>>> bet
while playing. The “right moment” was whenever I was pretty sure the >>>>> pit
would notice. It helps to look like just another stupid gambler, and >>>>> doesn’t cost much.
You continue to place less than 50/50 bets to cover your one odds-on bet >>>> at BJ? And yet you will not play for just a single $100 loss with me.
Thanks for your thoughts.
they had value outside of the expectation. If I get to play a +EV game
longer
because the pit thinks I’m an idiot, that’s the value. The value of that
one bet with you is very, very -EV. You keep forgetting that you were asking
for 100:1 payoff in a game where you are a 100:1 favorite to win that bet. >>> Do
you not understand the insanity of that? And if all you meant this time is >>> $100 bets in coin flips, you are still {YOURBANKROLL}:1 to win my single bet
before I win all your bets. You said I can’t quit, right? So what is the >>> value for me? Entertainment? I’m not a gambler. It does nothing for me. >>
That is what started this whole mess. Thanks for clearing it up.
Game over. Maybe we can decide just how much the advantage might be.
Unfuckingbelievable. For the thousandth time, YOU DO NOT HAVE AN ADVANTAGE IN SAY RED, OR ANY COIN FLIP EVEN MONEY GAME! What in the fuck? Your only “advantage” is in a risk of ruin side bet. And, “maybe we can decide just how much the advantage might be.”? Holy shit. We have told you so many times *exactly* what the odds are. You *are* Jerry. Just put “knew you couldn’t show” into a keyboard shortcut, and you can more or less auto-reply to every last thing you are told without even reading it, which is exactly what you are doing now, only more slowly. I truly feel sorry for all of your past clients. You might very well be the very first thing BillB was ever right about.
On 12/19/2023 2:14 PM, Bill Vanek wrote:
On Dec 19, 2023, da pickle wrote
(in article<[email protected]>):
On 12/19/2023 1:16 PM, Bill Vanek wrote:
On Dec 19, 2023, da pickle wrote
(in article<[email protected]>):
On 12/19/2023 12:10 PM, Bill Vanek wrote:
On Dec 19, 2023, da pickle wrote
(in article<[email protected]>):
On 12/19/2023 10:42 AM, Bill Vanek wrote:
On Dec 19, 2023, da pickle wrote
(in article<[email protected]>):
On 12/18/2023 11:41 AM, Bill Vanek wrote:
On Dec 18, 2023, da pickle wrote
(in article<[email protected]>):
On 12/17/2023 7:54 PM, Bill Vanek wrote:
On Dec 17, 2023, da pickle wrote
(in article<[email protected]>):
50/50 game ... $100 per bet
If you are the only one that can quit, will you play?
How many times do you need this question answered to consider it
answered? I
have said no repeatedly, and given the reason (it is zero EV, and
an
utter
waste of time). Exactly how many more times do I need to say
“no"
to
make
you finally understand that... the answer is “no"?
So, you think the risk to win $100 is too great?
Why?
Look, Jerry, I clearly answered that question in the very post you
are
replying to.
Let me see if you can still think at all. You say that your “advantage”,
whatever you mean by that, is based on you playing once, and then
quitting
while ahead one bet. So here’s the problem I can’t seem to grasp
at
all:
let’s say you win your one bet and quit, and that’s that. But
what
if
a
week later you are tempted to do it again? You keep saying you can
do
this
once with an advantage. But what changed a week later where you
can’t
do
it
again? And if you *can* do it again, why can’t you just get rich
doing
it
over and over again?
And here’s another thought experiment: would you get up on a stage
and
present this idea of yours in front of a seminar for actuaries, or
for
math
profs who teach probability? If so, what would you expect the
reaction
to
be?
Have you ever played roulette in a casino?
I didn’t see a single answer to my two simple questions. The answer
to
your
question is yes.
The answer to your questions is yes if I was invited ... I would expect
that I would not be invited but if I was, it would be interesting to
hear their views.
What about the other question? What changes after you win your bet the
first
time? What makes it a bad bet a week later?
I hope to win the first time. It is not necessarily a "bad bet" the next time. I think I would get your hundred if you would play. Why would not take it? You could win a lot and not lose but a hundred.
You “hope to win”? You sound very much like you are backing off your
claim to have that advantage you were talking about, where you “win every
single time". Is that the case? If so, congratulations.
As to your playing roulette ... what bet or bets did you place and why
would you play a less that 50/50 bet at all?
Thank you for your response.
Cover bets. I would try to get a seat at a BJ table next to the roulette
so
I
could pretend to wait for the “right moment” to jump over and place
a
bet
while playing. The “right moment” was whenever I was pretty sure the
pit
would notice. It helps to look like just another stupid gambler, and
doesn’t cost much.
You continue to place less than 50/50 bets to cover your one odds-on betContinue? I did that maybe ten times at most all those years I played BJ,
at BJ? And yet you will not play for just a single $100 loss with me. Thanks for your thoughts.
and
they had value outside of the expectation. If I get to play a +EV game longer
because the pit thinks I’m an idiot, that’s the value. The value of that
one bet with you is very, very -EV. You keep forgetting that you were asking
for 100:1 payoff in a game where you are a 100:1 favorite to win that bet.
Do
you not understand the insanity of that? And if all you meant this time is
$100 bets in coin flips, you are still {YOURBANKROLL}:1 to win my single
bet
before I win all your bets. You said I can’t quit, right? So what is the
value for me? Entertainment? I’m not a gambler. It does nothing for me.
Thank you ... I have an advantage and nobody but a fool would play.
That is what started this whole mess. Thanks for clearing it up.
Game over. Maybe we can decide just how much the advantage might be.
Unfuckingbelievable. For the thousandth time, YOU DO NOT HAVE AN ADVANTAGE IN
SAY RED, OR ANY COIN FLIP EVEN MONEY GAME! What in the fuck? Your only “advantage” is in a risk of ruin side bet. And, “maybe we can decide just how much the advantage might be.”? Holy shit. We have told you so many
times *exactly* what the odds are. You *are* Jerry. Just put “knew you couldn’t show” into a keyboard shortcut, and you can more or less auto-reply to every last thing you are told without even reading it, which is
exactly what you are doing now, only more slowly. I truly feel sorry for all
of your past clients. You might very well be the very first thing BillB was ever right about.
No, it is not just ME that has an advantage, it is any person who can
quit while he is ahead one bet but his opponent cannot quit. That just happens to be the person who is me in this proposed bet.
Don't be confused ... there is NO risk of ruin side bet in this bet. You
only can lose one bet. You just cannot quit. You would not play even
for a dollar because it just does not matter. But you will not play for
$100 dollar bets, because I will walk after I get that $100. You lose
$100 ... I win $100. What is this risk of ruin side bet? There is no
side bet.
50/50 until I win one bet and that is all. We are playing $100 a bet.
That is the game you will not play because I have the advantage ... only
I can quit.
On December 19, da pickle wrote:
I hope to win the first time. It is not necessarily a "bad bet" the
next time. I think I would get your hundred if you would play. Why
would not take it? You could win a lot and not lose but a hundred.
The Lions play the Bears. The Lions have the ball at their own 40 yard line.
The teams are evenly matched, such that on each play, the ball has an
equal chance of moving forward or backward. What is the chance
the Lions reach the opponent's 20 yard line, before getting pushed back
to their own 20?
--
Rich
On Dec 19, 2023, da pickle wrote
50/50 until I win one bet and that is all. We are playing $100 a bet.
That is the game you will not play because I have the advantage ... only
I can quit.
I really don’t expect this sort of thinking from an adult, especially one with your level of education.
On 12/19/2023 4:29 PM, Bill Vanek wrote:
On Dec 19, 2023, da pickle wrote
50/50 until I win one bet and that is all. We are playing $100 a bet. That is the game you will not play because I have the advantage ... only I can quit.
I really don’t expect this sort of thinking from an adult, especially one with your level of education.
And yet, you will not play ... Tim will not play because I have the advantage. I guess I need to start a different sort of thread. You
running from a simple bet is just too much for you. I thought you were
able to just admit that you will not play because you think I will leave
with $100.
On Dec 20, 2023, da pickle wrote
(in article<[email protected]>):
On 12/19/2023 4:29 PM, Bill Vanek wrote:
On Dec 19, 2023, da pickle wrote
50/50 until I win one bet and that is all. We are playing $100 a bet.
That is the game you will not play because I have the advantage ... only >>>> I can quit.
I really don’t expect this sort of thinking from an adult, especially one >>> with your level of education.
And yet, you will not play ... Tim will not play because I have the
advantage. I guess I need to start a different sort of thread. You
running from a simple bet is just too much for you. I thought you were
able to just admit that you will not play because you think I will leave
with $100.
I have already said everything that I can about your nonsense “bet”, and nonsense “advantage”. You simply can’t grasp any of this. If you want to discuss your cognitive issues, fine, but I won’t be discussing anything about the probabilities again. I sincerely hope you’re trolling, but I’m pretty sure you’re not. You redefine words, and your definition of probability boils down to, “well surely I *must* get ahead one bet at some point...”.
On 12/20/2023 10:52 AM, Bill Vanek wrote:
On Dec 20, 2023, da pickle wrote
(in article<[email protected]>):
On 12/19/2023 4:29 PM, Bill Vanek wrote:
On Dec 19, 2023, da pickle wrote
50/50 until I win one bet and that is all. We are playing $100 a bet. That is the game you will not play because I have the advantage ... only
I can quit.
I really don’t expect this sort of thinking from an adult, especially one
with your level of education.
And yet, you will not play ... Tim will not play because I have the advantage. I guess I need to start a different sort of thread. You running from a simple bet is just too much for you. I thought you were able to just admit that you will not play because you think I will leave with $100.
I have already said everything that I can about your nonsense “bet”, and
nonsense “advantage”. You simply can’t grasp any of this. If you want to discuss your cognitive issues, fine, but I won’t be discussing anything
about the probabilities again. I sincerely hope you’re trolling, but I’m
pretty sure you’re not. You redefine words, and your definition of probability boils down to, “well surely I *must* get ahead one bet at some
point...”.
But you have not said "why" you will not play ... just once.
I am not
asking about the bet ... the bet is clear. Just say, I will not play
because I am more likely to lose $100 than win a bunch of money. Easy
as pie. Please do not just dodge again.
On Dec 20, 2023, da pickle wrote
(in article<[email protected]>):
On 12/20/2023 10:52 AM, Bill Vanek wrote:
On Dec 20, 2023, da pickle wrote
(in article<[email protected]>):
On 12/19/2023 4:29 PM, Bill Vanek wrote:
On Dec 19, 2023, da pickle wrote
50/50 until I win one bet and that is all. We are playing $100 a bet. >>>>>> That is the game you will not play because I have the advantage ... only >>>>>> I can quit.
I really don’t expect this sort of thinking from an adult, especially >>>>> one
with your level of education.
And yet, you will not play ... Tim will not play because I have the
advantage. I guess I need to start a different sort of thread. You
running from a simple bet is just too much for you. I thought you were >>>> able to just admit that you will not play because you think I will leave >>>> with $100.
I have already said everything that I can about your nonsense “bet”, and
nonsense “advantage”. You simply can’t grasp any of this. If you want >>> to discuss your cognitive issues, fine, but I won’t be discussing anything
about the probabilities again. I sincerely hope you’re trolling, but I’m
pretty sure you’re not. You redefine words, and your definition of
probability boils down to, “well surely I *must* get ahead one bet at some
point...”.
But you have not said "why" you will not play ... just once.
So you don’t understand that all you just said there is, “knew you couldn’t show”, while ignoring again (forgetting?) that I’ve actually said “why” more times than I can count? Do you identify with BillB (troll), or Jerry (idiot)? Your style of debate (gainsay) more closely tracks Jerry’s.
I am not
asking about the bet ... the bet is clear. Just say, I will not play
because I am more likely to lose $100 than win a bunch of money. Easy
as pie. Please do not just dodge again.
But you have not said "why" you will not play ... just once. I am not asking about the bet ... the bet is clear. Just say, I will not play because I am more likely to lose $100 than win a bunch of money. Easy
as pie. Please do not just dodge again.
On 12/18/2023 11:07 PM, Tim Norfolk wrote:
Honestly, the likely reaction would be polite confusion.
Have you ever played roulette in a casino?
On 12/19/2023 8:57 AM, da pickle wrote:
On 12/18/2023 11:07 PM, Tim Norfolk wrote:
Honestly, the likely reaction would be polite confusion.
Have you ever played roulette in a casino?
Question asked, but no answer ...
Tim, have you ever played roulette in a casino?
On December 20, da pickle wrote:
The teams are evenly matched, such that on each play, the ball has an
equal chance of moving forward or backward. What is the chance
the Lions reach the opponent's 20 yard line, before getting pushed back
to their own 20?
I do not know ... do you?
That figures. You get points for honesty, at least.
You play the race track. You consistently score 50-50, no edge.
(you lose slightly due to the rake, if they use that method)
You have two magic 8 balls, which give you tips.
i) One gives correct tips at 55% rate.
ii) The other, correct tips at 45% rate.
What is the monetary value of the information, in each case,
assuming you make $1 bets?
--
Rich
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