I think now that Tim is not only right about the math, but that he’s also right when he says you have no understanding of probability at all.
Here’s a quick little test. Here are two betting cases. Answer the
questions at the end:

It’s a fair, even money coin flip game, restricted to one bet at a time on any trial.

Case A: One player has 100 bets. The opponent has one bet and cannot quit.

Case B: One player has 100 bets. The opponent has 1000 bets and cannot quit. The player with 100 bets is going to quit when he gets one bet ahead.

1. Tell me the difference between the two cases.
2. Tell me how many bets the opponent effectively has in each case.
3. Tell me in which case the Gambler’s ruin calculation applies, and what
the result of the calculation is.
4. Tell me which player is most likely to win in each case, which I guess is what you might mean by “advantage”, even though you refuse to clearly define it.

Good luck.

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On 12/16/2023 4:38 PM, Bill Vanek wrote:

I think now that Tim is not only right about the math, but that he’s also right when he says you have no understanding of probability at all.
Here’s a quick little test. Here are two betting cases. Answer the questions at the end:

It’s a fair, even money coin flip game, restricted to one bet at a time on any trial.

Case A: One player has 100 bets. The opponent has one bet and cannot quit.

Case B: One player has 100 bets. The opponent has 1000 bets and cannot quit. The player with 100 bets is going to quit when he gets one bet ahead.

1. Tell me the difference between the two cases.

I see no difference at all for my proposal ... give the house a million
bets. It does not matter. I can lose a hundred bets or I can win one
bet with continued play ... but the 100 v 1000 might be 101 v 999 after
the first play (50/50) and the playing is over. I leave. If it is 99 v
1001 we play again and maybe it is back to 100/1000 so we play again ...
I believe the odds will take it back and forth before I lose my 100 bets
... when I get ahead one bet, I quit ... a winner.

2. Tell me how many bets the opponent effectively has in each case.

I think the 100 bets person will have either 99 bets left after the
first game or be gone. He might be back to 100 of the next try and that
is like starting the whole thing over again ... and again ... and again.

3. Tell me in which case the Gambler’s ruin calculation applies, and what the result of the calculation is.

I think you may be misunderstanding this game completely.

4. Tell me which player is most likely to win in each case, which I guess is what you might mean by “advantage”, even though you refuse to clearly define it.

I think the player that wants to win one net chip is the most likely to
win one chip. I think that is why if we play for a large enough chip,
the player that only wants to win a net one chip has the advantage.

Good luck.

Tim will not play me ... why would you not play me?

You both got confused by the every "single" time that we play. We play
the game until I get ahead one bet and that is the one time (single)
that we play.

[You have the chance to get ahead two bets just like I do along the long
path to one of us winning every single chip either of us could possibly
have ... the one who quits "ahead" is the winner. That ahead moves back
and forth and back and forth.]

Not worth it for a penny a bet ... might be worth it for $100.

You would take the $100 a bet game in a minute ... IF you could quit if
you won the first bet.

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On Dec 17, 2023, da pickle wrote
(in article<[email protected]>):

On 12/16/2023 4:38 PM, Bill Vanek wrote:

I think now that Tim is not only right about the math, but that he’s also right when he says you have no understanding of probability at all. Here’s a quick little test. Here are two betting cases. Answer the questions at the end:

It’s a fair, even money coin flip game, restricted to one bet at a time on
any trial.

Case A: One player has 100 bets. The opponent has one bet and cannot quit.

Case B: One player has 100 bets. The opponent has 1000 bets and cannot quit.
The player with 100 bets is going to quit when he gets one bet ahead.

1. Tell me the difference between the two cases.

I see no difference at all for my proposal ... give the house a million
bets. It does not matter.

YAAAAAY!!! CONGRATULATIONS!!!! You have taken the first baby step to understanding your misunderstanding. You must grasp that Case A is a very simple case of the most basic gamblers ruin calculation, and that is all that you are betting on. The player with 100 bets is 100:1 to win the opponent’s single dollar. Once you grasp that, you may continue reading. BTW, in case
you don’t really know the definition of gamblers ruin, it is simply the probability of a player losing his entire designated bankroll. In case A,
that entire bankroll is $1. Still following? Then let’s go on.

In case B, the opponent has 1000 bets that he is willing to risk. So with a 50/50 game played out, he would be a 1000:100, or 10:1 favorite to win all of the other player’s 100 bets. Still following? Now the next step is the
tricky part, so read it very closely:

When you decide that you are going to quit the game immediately when you are one chip ahead - now read this very carefully - the opponent’s bankroll is effectively reduced to ONE BET. If the light finally went off in your head,
you can now see that cases A & B are identical gamblers ruin situations, and the calculations are identical. When you decide to quit at one bet ahead, effectively reducing the opponent’s bankroll to one bet, you are once again
a 100:1 favorite to “break” him, which amounts to getting one bet ahead.

In spite of your off and on claims, you were never offering a bet and
claiming to have an advantage in say red, you were simply making a side bet
on a gamblers ruin problem, in this case, a problem with a very clear probability. Either your thinking is muddled, or you are trolling. I don’t think you are trolling.

If you finally understand this, what I wrote above should address everything you wrote below.

I can lose a hundred bets or I can win one
bet with continued play ... but the 100 v 1000 might be 101 v 999 after
the first play (50/50) and the playing is over. I leave. If it is 99 v
1001 we play again and maybe it is back to 100/1000 so we play again ...
I believe the odds will take it back and forth before I lose my 100 bets
... when I get ahead one bet, I quit ... a winner.

2. Tell me how many bets the opponent effectively has in each case.

I think the 100 bets person will have either 99 bets left after the
first game or be gone. He might be back to 100 of the next try and that
is like starting the whole thing over again ... and again ... and again.

3. Tell me in which case the Gambler’s ruin calculation applies, and what the result of the calculation is.

I think you may be misunderstanding this game completely.

4. Tell me which player is most likely to win in each case, which I guess is
what you might mean by “advantage”, even though you refuse to clearly define it.

I think the player that wants to win one net chip is the most likely to
win one chip. I think that is why if we play for a large enough chip,
the player that only wants to win a net one chip has the advantage.

Good luck.

Tim will not play me ... why would you not play me?

You both got confused by the every "single" time that we play. We play
the game until I get ahead one bet and that is the one time (single)
that we play.

[You have the chance to get ahead two bets just like I do along the long
path to one of us winning every single chip either of us could possibly
have ... the one who quits "ahead" is the winner. That ahead moves back
and forth and back and forth.]

Not worth it for a penny a bet ... might be worth it for $100.

You would take the $100 a bet game in a minute ... IF you could quit if
you won the first bet.

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On 12/17/2023 11:37 AM, Bill Vanek wrote:

On Dec 17, 2023, da pickle wrote
(in article<[email protected]>):

On 12/16/2023 4:38 PM, Bill Vanek wrote:

I think now that Tim is not only right about the math, but that he’s also >>> right when he says you have no understanding of probability at all.
Here’s a quick little test. Here are two betting cases. Answer the
questions at the end:

It’s a fair, even money coin flip game, restricted to one bet at a time on
any trial.

Case A: One player has 100 bets. The opponent has one bet and cannot quit. >>>
Case B: One player has 100 bets. The opponent has 1000 bets and cannot quit.
The player with 100 bets is going to quit when he gets one bet ahead.

1. Tell me the difference between the two cases.

I see no difference at all for my proposal ... give the house a million
bets. It does not matter.

YAAAAAY!!! CONGRATULATIONS!!!! You have taken the first baby step to understanding your misunderstanding. You must grasp that Case A is a very simple case of the most basic gamblers ruin calculation, and that is all that you are betting on. The player with 100 bets is 100:1 to win the opponent’s single dollar.

50/50 that he will win the first time.

Is it now 99/2 that he will win back one of the two bets left or is it
50/50 that he wins one of those back?

The only gambler's "ruin" is the guy who plays a 50/50 game over and
over again for a single $100 chip and does not quit when he is ahead ...
in my case, one bet. That is why you will not play me a 50/50 for a significant amount ... I will take one bet from you.

I am not trying to win all your money and you will not win all of mine.

Let us just play some time. You might win everything I have. It will
not cost you anything more than $100.

Once you grasp that, you may continue reading. BTW, in case
you don’t really know the definition of gamblers ruin, it is simply the probability of a player losing his entire designated bankroll. In case A, that entire bankroll is $1. Still following? Then let’s go on.

In case B, the opponent has 1000 bets that he is willing to risk. So with a 50/50 game played out, he would be a 1000:100, or 10:1 favorite to win all of the other player’s 100 bets. Still following? Now the next step is the tricky part, so read it very closely:

When you decide that you are going to quit the game immediately when you are one chip ahead - now read this very carefully - the opponent’s bankroll is effectively reduced to ONE BET. If the light finally went off in your head, you can now see that cases A & B are identical gamblers ruin situations, and the calculations are identical. When you decide to quit at one bet ahead, effectively reducing the opponent’s bankroll to one bet, you are once again a 100:1 favorite to “break” him, which amounts to getting one bet ahead.

I think you do not want to listen ... even Tim finally understood I have
the advantage if only I could quit.

In spite of your off and on claims, you were never offering a bet and claiming to have an advantage in say red, you were simply making a side bet on a gamblers ruin problem, in this case, a problem with a very clear probability. Either your thinking is muddled, or you are trolling. I don’t think you are trolling.

I am not trolling. You still do not understand the original bet. I am
NOT talking about the "side bet" offer. I know that was over the top.

If you finally understand this, what I wrote above should address everything you wrote below.

No, you did not address what I wrote below ... you ignored it. If I win
the first 50/50, the game is OVER. I tried to show your error below.
Read it again

You misunderstand that each and every fun is 50/50 ... it is a 50/50
game. Every time. The Say Red game calculations are talking about the
runs through the deck ... how many times red or black get "ahead" ...
that is not a 50/50 game. If I pick the LAST card each time, all those calculations go away. It is 50/50 each time on the last card. [We
assumed a real 50/50 game.]

The net 1 win each goes up and down and up and down ... be in the LONG
run, it will be even. And the long run is a lot longer than you want to
admit.

Your gambler's ruin calculations are for trying to win all of the money,
not one bet.

[Start by YOU trying to win two net bets instead of only one.]

I can lose a hundred bets or I can win one
bet with continued play ... but the 100 v 1000 might be 101 v 999 after
the first play (50/50) and the playing is over. I leave. If it is 99 v
1001 we play again and maybe it is back to 100/1000 so we play again ...
I believe the odds will take it back and forth before I lose my 100 bets
... when I get ahead one bet, I quit ... a winner.

2. Tell me how many bets the opponent effectively has in each case.

I think the 100 bets person will have either 99 bets left after the
first game or be gone. He might be back to 100 of the next try and that
is like starting the whole thing over again ... and again ... and again.

3. Tell me in which case the Gambler’s ruin calculation applies, and what >>> the result of the calculation is.

I think you may be misunderstanding this game completely.

4. Tell me which player is most likely to win in each case, which I guess is
what you might mean by “advantage”, even though you refuse to clearly >>> define it.

I think the player that wants to win one net chip is the most likely to
win one chip. I think that is why if we play for a large enough chip,
the player that only wants to win a net one chip has the advantage.

Good luck.

Tim will not play me ... why would you not play me?

You both got confused by the every "single" time that we play. We play
the game until I get ahead one bet and that is the one time (single)
that we play.

[You have the chance to get ahead two bets just like I do along the long
path to one of us winning every single chip either of us could possibly
have ... the one who quits "ahead" is the winner. That ahead moves back
and forth and back and forth.]

Not worth it for a penny a bet ... might be worth it for $100.

You would take the $100 a bet game in a minute ... IF YOU could quit if
you won the first bet.

Wouldn't you?

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On Dec 17, 2023, da pickle wrote
(in article<[email protected]>):

Your gambler's ruin calculations are for trying to win all of the money,
not one bet.

And there lies the problem. One bet *IS* ALL THE MONEY for the opponent, if
you quit after you get ahead one bet. It’s just crazy that you can’t
grasp that.

Tim was right about two things: the math, and his suggestion that you have
zero understanding of probability, or at least of gambler’s ruin. I tried
to give a simple explanation of what gamblers ruin actually addresses, but I guess you can’t understand.

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On 12/17/2023 1:47 PM, Bill Vanek wrote:

On Dec 17, 2023, da pickle wrote
(in article<[email protected]>):

Your gambler's ruin calculations are for trying to win all of the money,
not one bet.

And there lies the problem. One bet *IS* ALL THE MONEY for the opponent, if you quit after you get ahead one bet. It’s just crazy that you can’t grasp that.

Tim was right about two things: the math, and his suggestion that you have zero understanding of probability, or at least of gambler’s ruin. I tried to give a simple explanation of what gamblers ruin actually addresses, but I guess you can’t understand.

Why cut all the meat and refuse to address the issues.

WILL you play me a 50/50 game where only I can leave? You do not need a
lot of money ... just a single $100 chip. You could win thousands ...
what are your chances?

I do not think it will take but a few minutes of your time ... I could
win the first try and it is over ... but I could be wrong and you could
win a LOT of money. [Do you agree with Tim that I have an "advantage"?]

Yes or no ... play or not

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On Dec 17, 2023, da pickle wrote
(in article<[email protected]>):

On 12/17/2023 1:47 PM, Bill Vanek wrote:

On Dec 17, 2023, da pickle wrote
(in article<[email protected]>):

Your gambler's ruin calculations are for trying to win all of the money, not one bet.

And there lies the problem. One bet *IS* ALL THE MONEY for the opponent, if you quit after you get ahead one bet. It’s just crazy that you can’t grasp that.

Tim was right about two things: the math, and his suggestion that you have zero understanding of probability, or at least of gambler’s ruin. I tried to give a simple explanation of what gamblers ruin actually addresses, but I
guess you can’t understand.

Why cut all the meat and refuse to address the issues.

WILL you play me a 50/50 game where only I can leave? You do not need a
lot of money ... just a single $100 chip. You could win thousands ...
what are your chances?

Wow. There are clear signs of insanity here. "What are my chances"? That has been CLEARLY stated here over and over and over and over by both me and Tim. Did you not see that even once? Why would you see it next time?

I do not think it will take but a few minutes of your time ... I could
win the first try and it is over ... but I could be wrong and you could
win a LOT of money. [Do you agree with Tim that I have an "advantage"?]

Yes or no ... play or not

You could save yourself a whole lot of typing by just using the methods of
your mentor, Jerry: just write, “knew you couldn’t show”, and leave it
at that. It’s as effective an argument as anything you’ve written in this entire thread.

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On 12/17/2023 4:16 PM, Bill Vanek wrote:

On Dec 17, 2023, da pickle wrote
(in article<[email protected]>):

On 12/17/2023 1:47 PM, Bill Vanek wrote:

On Dec 17, 2023, da pickle wrote
(in article<[email protected]>):

Your gambler's ruin calculations are for trying to win all of the money, >>>> not one bet.

And there lies the problem. One bet *IS* ALL THE MONEY for the opponent, if >>> you quit after you get ahead one bet. It’s just crazy that you can’t >>> grasp that.

Tim was right about two things: the math, and his suggestion that you have >>> zero understanding of probability, or at least of gambler’s ruin. I tried >>> to give a simple explanation of what gamblers ruin actually addresses, but I
guess you can’t understand.

Why cut all the meat and refuse to address the issues.

WILL you play me a 50/50 game where only I can leave? You do not need a
lot of money ... just a single $100 chip. You could win thousands ...
what are your chances?

Wow. There are clear signs of insanity here. "What are my chances"? That has been CLEARLY stated here over and over and over and over by both me and Tim. Did you not see that even once? Why would you see it next time?

Will you play? Yes or No

I do not think it will take but a few minutes of your time ... I could
win the first try and it is over ... but I could be wrong and you could
win a LOT of money. [Do you agree with Tim that I have an "advantage"?]

Yes or no ... play or not

You could save yourself a whole lot of typing by just using the methods of your mentor, Jerry: just write, “knew you couldn’t show”, and leave it at that. It’s as effective an argument as anything you’ve written in this entire thread.

You are the one dodging a simple question.

Do you agree with Tim that I have an "advantage"?

Yes or No will do for this question?

[Jerry is the one that runs from simple questions.]

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On Dec 17, 2023, da pickle wrote
(in article<[email protected]>):

On 12/17/2023 4:16 PM, Bill Vanek wrote:

On Dec 17, 2023, da pickle wrote
(in article<[email protected]>):

On 12/17/2023 1:47 PM, Bill Vanek wrote:

On Dec 17, 2023, da pickle wrote
(in article<[email protected]>):

Your gambler's ruin calculations are for trying to win all of the money,
not one bet.

And there lies the problem. One bet *IS* ALL THE MONEY for the opponent,
if
you quit after you get ahead one bet. It’s just crazy that you can’t
grasp that.

Tim was right about two things: the math, and his suggestion that you have
zero understanding of probability, or at least of gambler’s ruin. I tried
to give a simple explanation of what gamblers ruin actually addresses, but I
guess you can’t understand.

Why cut all the meat and refuse to address the issues.

WILL you play me a 50/50 game where only I can leave? You do not need a lot of money ... just a single $100 chip. You could win thousands ... what are your chances?

Wow. There are clear signs of insanity here. "What are my chances"? That has
been CLEARLY stated here over and over and over and over by both me and Tim.
Did you not see that even once? Why would you see it next time?

Will you play? Yes or No

I do not think it will take but a few minutes of your time ... I could win the first try and it is over ... but I could be wrong and you could win a LOT of money. [Do you agree with Tim that I have an "advantage"?]

Yes or no ... play or not

You could save yourself a whole lot of typing by just using the methods of your mentor, Jerry: just write, “knew you couldn’t show”, and leave it
at that. It’s as effective an argument as anything you’ve written in this
entire thread.

You are the one dodging a simple question.

Do you agree with Tim that I have an "advantage"?

Yes or No will do for this question?

[Jerry is the one that runs from simple questions.]

HEEEEEEEEEEERRRRREEES JOHNNY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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Jack a dull boy all work and no play makes Jack a dull boy all work and no
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work and no play makes Jack a dull boy all work and no play makes Jack a dull boy all work and no play makes Jack a dull boy all work and no play makes
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Jack a dull boy all work and no play makes Jack a dull boy all work and no
play makes Jack a dull boy all work and no play makes Jack a dull boy all
work and no play makes Jack a dull boy all work and no play makes Jack a dull boy all work and no play makes Jack a dull boy all work and no play makes
Jack a dull boy all work and no play makes Jack a dull boy all work and no
play makes Jack a dull boy all work and no play makes Jack a dull boy all
work and no play makes Jack a dull boy all work and no play makes Jack a dull boy all work and no play makes Jack a dull boy all work and no play makes
Jack a dull boy all work and no play makes Jack a dull boy all work and no
play makes Jack a dull boy

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On Dec 17, 2023, da pickle wrote
(in article<[email protected]>):

You would play if only YOU could quit.

Why?

You know, if the thinking you are showing in this thread is something that
came with you into the courtroom during your practice, The Asshole might have been right about you. Scary thought.

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On 12/17/2023 7:04 PM, Bill Vanek wrote:

On Dec 17, 2023, da pickle wrote

Will you play? Yes or N

No response

You are the one dodging a simple question.

Do you agree with Tim that I have an "advantage"?

Yes or No will do for this question?

[Jerry is the one that runs from simple questions.]

And here is the run.

HEEEEEEEEEEERRRRREEES JOHNNY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

all work and no play makes Jack a dull boy all work and no play makes Jack a dull boy all work and no play makes Jack a dull boy all work and no play makes Jack a dull boy all work and no play makes Jack a dull boy all work and no play makes Jack a dull boy all work and no play makes Jack a dull boy all work and no play makes Jack a dull boy all work and no play makes Jack a dull boy all work and no play makes Jack a dull boy all work and no play makes Jack a dull boy all work and no play makes Jack a dull boy all work and no play makes Jack a dull boy all work and no play makes Jack a dull boy all work and no play makes Jack a dull boy all work and no play makes Jack a dull boy all work and no play makes Jack a dull boy all work and no play makes Jack a dull boy all work and no play makes Jack a dull boy all work and no play makes Jack a dull boy all work and no play makes Jack a dull boy all work and no play makes Jack a dull boy all work and no play makes Jack a dull boy all work 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playmakes Jack a dull boy all work and no play makes Jack a dull boy all work and no play makes Jack a dull boy all work and no play makes Jack a dull boy all work and no play makes Jack a dull boy all work and no play makes Jack a dull boy all work and no play makes Jack a dull boy all work and no play makes Jack a dull boy all work and no play makes Jack a dull boy all work and no play makes Jack a dull boy all work and no play makes Jack a dull boy all work and no play makes Jack a dull boy all work and no play makes Jack a dull boy all work and no play makes Jack a dull boy all work and no play makes Jack a dull boy all work and no play makes Jack a dull boy all work and no play makes Jack a dull boy all work and no play makes Jack a dull boy all work and no play makes Jack a dull boy all work and no play makes Jack a dull boy all work and no play makes Jack a dull boy all work and no play makes Jack a dull boy all work and no play makes Jack a dull boy all work and no play makes 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boyall work and no play makes Jack a dull boy all work and no play makes Jack a dull boy all work and no play makes Jack a dull boy all work and no play makes Jack a dull boy all work and no play makes Jack a dull boy all work and no play makes Jack a dull boy all work and no play makes Jack a dull boy all work and no play makes Jack a dull boy all work and no play makes Jack a dull boy all work and no play makes Jack a dull boy all work and no play makes Jack a dull boy all work and no play makes Jack a dull boy all work and no play makes Jack a dull boy all work and no play makes Jack a dull boy all work and no play makes Jack a dull boy all work and no play makes Jack a dull boy all work and no play makes Jack a dull boy all work and no play makes Jack a dull boy all work and no play makes Jack a dull boy all work and no play makes Jack a dull boy all work and no play makes Jack a dull boy all work and no play makes Jack a dull boy all work and no play makes Jack a dull boy all work 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all work and no play makes Jack a dull boy all work and no play makes Jack a dull boy all work and no play makes Jack a dull boy all work and no play makes Jack a dull boy all work and no play makes Jack a dull boy all work and no play makes Jack a dull boy all work and no play makes Jack a dull boy all work and no play makes Jack a dull boy all work and no play makes Jack a dull boy all work and no play makes Jack a dull boy all work and no play makes Jack a dull boy all work and no play makes Jack a dull boy all work and no play makes Jack a dull boy all work and no play makes Jack a dull boy all work and no play makes Jack a dull boy all work and no play makes Jack a dull boy all work and no play makes Jack a dull boy all work and no play makes Jack a dull boy all work and no play makes Jack a dull boy all work and no play makes Jack a dull boy all work and no play makes Jack a dull boy all work and no play makes Jack a dull boy all work and no play makes Jack a dull boy all work and no play makes Jack a dull boy all work and no play makes Jack a dull boy all work and no play makes Jack a dull boy all work and no play makes Jack a dull boy all work and no play makes Jack a dull boy all work and no play makes Jack a dull boy all work and no play makes Jack a dull boy all work and no play makes Jack a dull boy all work and no play makes Jack a dull boy all work and no play makes Jack a dull boy all work and no play makes Jack a dull boy all work and no play makes Jack a dull boy all work and no play makes Jack a dull boy all work and no play makes Jack a dull boy

You would play if only YOU could quit.

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
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On 12/17/2023 7:24 PM, Bill Vanek wrote:

On Dec 17, 2023, da pickle wrote
(in article<[email protected]>):

You would play if only YOU could quit.

Why?

You know, if the thinking you are showing in this thread is something that came with you into the courtroom during your practice, The Asshole might have been right about you. Scary thought.

Why did you cut the post and pull a Jerry?

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