THE WASHINGTON POST

Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s threat to Biden is inflated in polls. Here’s why.

Kennedy is pulling as much as 19 percent in early
polls, leading Republicans to hope he’ll damage Biden

The good news for President Biden’s just-launched 2024 reelection bid is that, for now, it doesn’t appear as though it will include a serious primary challenger. The bad news is that he’s ceding a significant and potentially embarrassing chunk of
voters to an anti-vaccine activist.

Multiple recent polls show Robert F. Kennedy Jr. pulling double-digit support in the primary, including a Fox News survey Wednesday that showed him at 19 percent.

That network has frequently covered Kennedy’s campaign and interviewed him more than once over the past week or so, as certain Republicans have made clear they see utility in elevating Kennedy to undercut Biden.

How much might the candidacy actually undercut Biden? It’s probably worth not overselling the early polls, for a few reasons.

The National Review this week published an article suggesting that such a double-digit performance from Kennedy could prove costly for Biden. No incumbent president in the past 50 years has ceded that much of the vote to a primary challenger and won
reelection, it noted.

That’s technically true, but it ignores a whole lot of nuance.

The first point is that we’re talking about a small sample size. There have been only three such instances, all more than 30 years ago: Ronald Reagan’s 1976 challenge to Gerald Ford, Ted Kennedy’s 1980 challenge to Jimmy Carter, and Pat Buchanan’
s 1992 challenge to George H.W. Bush.

But each of those primary challenges was also more significant than even the early polls suggest Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s is. Reagan took nearly half of primary votes in 1976, Ted Kennedy took more than one-third, and Buchanan won a surprising 37
percent of the vote in the 1992 New Hampshire primary and about one-quarter overall. In the first two cases in particular, there was genuine concern about the incumbent losing the nomination, not just losing a somewhat embarrassing number of votes.

The next point is that, in case you hadn’t noticed, one of those previous primary challengers shared a last name with Robert F. Kennedy Jr. The latest Kennedy is Ted’s and John F. Kennedy’s nephew and Sen. Robert F. Kennedy’s son.

There’s plenty of reason to believe his early poll standing is significantly inflated by his famous name.

A few weeks ago, another poll on Kennedy caught my eye. It was from YouGov, and it tested his image alongside a dozen other political figures. Of the 13 tested including Biden, Trump and congressional leaders, who was the most popular? Robert F. Kennedy
Jr. Nearly half of Americans had a favorable view of him (48 percent), compared to just 28 percent unfavorable.

Is this because Kennedy is actually that popular? Of course not. It’s doubtful many people really know all that much about him.

But there is probably no name in American politics that is more golden, particularly among left-leaning Americans. A Gallup poll last decade found more Americans thought John F. Kennedy was a good president (74 percent) than any other modern president.

When you layer on top of that the fact that half of Democrats don’t even want Biden to run, it shouldn’t be too surprising that a fair number of people who haven’t really considered the 2024 race might go for a name they know.

We should all be skeptical that this will hold, particularly given Kennedy is best-known for his dubiously founded vaccine skepticism and that Democrats are increasingly the party of vaccines. that doesn’t mean losing voters to such a fringe figure isn�
��t a headache for Biden, and perhaps some voters might like Kennedy’s environmental activism. But the idea that Kennedy will approach even a Buchanan level of support seems unlikely, the early polls notwithstanding.

More likely, it seems, is that this might be a situation akin to 1996. Then, as today, many Democrats didn’t want Bill Clinton to run again, and fringe figure Lyndon LaRouche managed to pull double digits in some primary states. A Chicago woman who
reportedly believed that God told her to spend a $120,000 disability settlement to run for president took 11 percent in Oklahoma. (Clinton went on to win reelection easily despite this.)

We’ve actually seen very recently how this precise name can translate into a sugar high in the polls.

The 2017 Alabama U.S. Senate special election featured a candidate by the name of Robert Kennedy Jr. (no actual relation this time). And a late Democratic primary poll showed him with a shocking share of the vote: 49 percent. That was more than 20 points
ahead of the national party’s favored candidate, Doug Jones, despite Kennedy not seeming to have run an actual campaign.

“I understand that my name will give me some points,” that Robert Kennedy Jr. said when the poll came out. “But to suggest that my name in that particular poll gave me 49 points is disrespectful to the voters.”

Three weeks later, he received 18 percent of the vote, losing to Jones by nearly 50 points.
______________

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On Thursday, April 27, 2023 at 4:49:50 PM UTC-7, VegasJerry wrote:

THE WASHINGTON POST

Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s threat to Biden is inflated in polls. Here’s why.

Kennedy is pulling as much as 19 percent in early
polls, leading Republicans to hope he’ll damage Biden

The good news for President Biden’s just-launched 2024 reelection bid is that, for now, it doesn’t appear as though it will include a serious primary challenger. The bad news is that he’s ceding a significant and potentially embarrassing chunk of

voters to an anti-vaccine activist.

Multiple recent polls show Robert F. Kennedy Jr. pulling double-digit support in the primary, including a Fox News survey Wednesday that showed him at 19 percent.

That network has frequently covered Kennedy’s campaign and interviewed him more than once over the past week or so, as certain Republicans have made clear they see utility in elevating Kennedy to undercut Biden.

How much might the candidacy actually undercut Biden? It’s probably worth not overselling the early polls, for a few reasons.

The National Review this week published an article suggesting that such a double-digit performance from Kennedy could prove costly for Biden. No incumbent president in the past 50 years has ceded that much of the vote to a primary challenger and won

reelection, it noted.

That’s technically true, but it ignores a whole lot of nuance.

The first point is that we’re talking about a small sample size. There have been only three such instances, all more than 30 years ago: Ronald Reagan’s 1976 challenge to Gerald Ford, Ted Kennedy’s 1980 challenge to Jimmy Carter, and Pat Buchanan�

�s 1992 challenge to George H.W. Bush.

But each of those primary challenges was also more significant than even the early polls suggest Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s is. Reagan took nearly half of primary votes in 1976, Ted Kennedy took more than one-third, and Buchanan won a surprising 37

percent of the vote in the 1992 New Hampshire primary and about one-quarter overall. In the first two cases in particular, there was genuine concern about the incumbent losing the nomination, not just losing a somewhat embarrassing number of votes.

The next point is that, in case you hadn’t noticed, one of those previous primary challengers shared a last name with Robert F. Kennedy Jr. The latest Kennedy is Ted’s and John F. Kennedy’s nephew and Sen. Robert F. Kennedy’s son.

There’s plenty of reason to believe his early poll standing is significantly inflated by his famous name.

A few weeks ago, another poll on Kennedy caught my eye. It was from YouGov, and it tested his image alongside a dozen other political figures. Of the 13 tested including Biden, Trump and congressional leaders, who was the most popular? Robert F.

Kennedy Jr. Nearly half of Americans had a favorable view of him (48 percent), compared to just 28 percent unfavorable.

Is this because Kennedy is actually that popular? Of course not. It’s doubtful many people really know all that much about him.

But there is probably no name in American politics that is more golden, particularly among left-leaning Americans. A Gallup poll last decade found more Americans thought John F. Kennedy was a good president (74 percent) than any other modern president.

When you layer on top of that the fact that half of Democrats don’t even want Biden to run, it shouldn’t be too surprising that a fair number of people who haven’t really considered the 2024 race might go for a name they know.

We should all be skeptical that this will hold, particularly given Kennedy is best-known for his dubiously founded vaccine skepticism and that Democrats are increasingly the party of vaccines. that doesn’t mean losing voters to such a fringe figure

isn’t a headache for Biden, and perhaps some voters might like Kennedy’s environmental activism. But the idea that Kennedy will approach even a Buchanan level of support seems unlikely, the early polls notwithstanding.

More likely, it seems, is that this might be a situation akin to 1996. Then, as today, many Democrats didn’t want Bill Clinton to run again, and fringe figure Lyndon LaRouche managed to pull double digits in some primary states. A Chicago woman who

reportedly believed that God told her to spend a $120,000 disability settlement to run for president took 11 percent in Oklahoma. (Clinton went on to win reelection easily despite this.)

We’ve actually seen very recently how this precise name can translate into a sugar high in the polls.

The 2017 Alabama U.S. Senate special election featured a candidate by the name of Robert Kennedy Jr. (no actual relation this time). And a late Democratic primary poll showed him with a shocking share of the vote: 49 percent. That was more than 20

points ahead of the national party’s favored candidate, Doug Jones, despite Kennedy not seeming to have run an actual campaign.

“I understand that my name will give me some points,” that Robert Kennedy Jr. said when the poll came out. “But to suggest that my name in that particular poll gave me 49 points is disrespectful to the voters.”

Three weeks later, he received 18 percent of the vote, losing to Jones by nearly 50 points.
______________

RIP Jerry Bahahahahahaha

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On Thursday, April 27, 2023 at 7:49:50 PM UTC-4, VegasJerry wrote:

THE WASHINGTON POST

Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s threat to Biden is inflated in polls. Here’s why.

Kennedy is pulling as much as 19 percent in early
polls, leading Republicans to hope he’ll damage Biden

The good news for President Biden’s just-launched 2024 reelection bid is that, for now, it doesn’t appear as though it will include a serious primary challenger. The bad news is that he’s ceding a significant and potentially embarrassing chunk of

voters to an anti-vaccine activist.

Multiple recent polls show Robert F. Kennedy Jr. pulling double-digit support in the primary, including a Fox News survey Wednesday that showed him at 19 percent.

That network has frequently covered Kennedy’s campaign and interviewed him more than once over the past week or so, as certain Republicans have made clear they see utility in elevating Kennedy to undercut Biden.

How much might the candidacy actually undercut Biden? It’s probably worth not overselling the early polls, for a few reasons.

The National Review this week published an article suggesting that such a double-digit performance from Kennedy could prove costly for Biden. No incumbent president in the past 50 years has ceded that much of the vote to a primary challenger and won

reelection, it noted.

That’s technically true, but it ignores a whole lot of nuance.

The first point is that we’re talking about a small sample size. There have been only three such instances, all more than 30 years ago: Ronald Reagan’s 1976 challenge to Gerald Ford, Ted Kennedy’s 1980 challenge to Jimmy Carter, and Pat Buchanan�

�s 1992 challenge to George H.W. Bush.

But each of those primary challenges was also more significant than even the early polls suggest Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s is. Reagan took nearly half of primary votes in 1976, Ted Kennedy took more than one-third, and Buchanan won a surprising 37

percent of the vote in the 1992 New Hampshire primary and about one-quarter overall. In the first two cases in particular, there was genuine concern about the incumbent losing the nomination, not just losing a somewhat embarrassing number of votes.

The next point is that, in case you hadn’t noticed, one of those previous primary challengers shared a last name with Robert F. Kennedy Jr. The latest Kennedy is Ted’s and John F. Kennedy’s nephew and Sen. Robert F. Kennedy’s son.

There’s plenty of reason to believe his early poll standing is significantly inflated by his famous name.

A few weeks ago, another poll on Kennedy caught my eye. It was from YouGov, and it tested his image alongside a dozen other political figures. Of the 13 tested including Biden, Trump and congressional leaders, who was the most popular? Robert F.

Kennedy Jr. Nearly half of Americans had a favorable view of him (48 percent), compared to just 28 percent unfavorable.

Is this because Kennedy is actually that popular? Of course not. It’s doubtful many people really know all that much about him.

But there is probably no name in American politics that is more golden, particularly among left-leaning Americans. A Gallup poll last decade found more Americans thought John F. Kennedy was a good president (74 percent) than any other modern president.

When you layer on top of that the fact that half of Democrats don’t even want Biden to run, it shouldn’t be too surprising that a fair number of people who haven’t really considered the 2024 race might go for a name they know.

We should all be skeptical that this will hold, particularly given Kennedy is best-known for his dubiously founded vaccine skepticism and that Democrats are increasingly the party of vaccines. that doesn’t mean losing voters to such a fringe figure

isn’t a headache for Biden, and perhaps some voters might like Kennedy’s environmental activism. But the idea that Kennedy will approach even a Buchanan level of support seems unlikely, the early polls notwithstanding.

More likely, it seems, is that this might be a situation akin to 1996. Then, as today, many Democrats didn’t want Bill Clinton to run again, and fringe figure Lyndon LaRouche managed to pull double digits in some primary states. A Chicago woman who

reportedly believed that God told her to spend a $120,000 disability settlement to run for president took 11 percent in Oklahoma. (Clinton went on to win reelection easily despite this.)

We’ve actually seen very recently how this precise name can translate into a sugar high in the polls.

The 2017 Alabama U.S. Senate special election featured a candidate by the name of Robert Kennedy Jr. (no actual relation this time). And a late Democratic primary poll showed him with a shocking share of the vote: 49 percent. That was more than 20

points ahead of the national party’s favored candidate, Doug Jones, despite Kennedy not seeming to have run an actual campaign.

“I understand that my name will give me some points,” that Robert Kennedy Jr. said when the poll came out. “But to suggest that my name in that particular poll gave me 49 points is disrespectful to the voters.”

Three weeks later, he received 18 percent of the vote, losing to Jones by nearly 50 points.
______________

None of this matters, the primaries are already rigged, even more so than HRC in 2016. Plus no debates LOL.

I would pay huge money to see the cardboard cutout POTUS debate anyone.

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On April 28, BTSinAustin wrote:

None of this matters, the primaries are already rigged, even more so than HRC in 2016.
Plus no debates LOL.
I would pay huge money to see the cardboard cutout POTUS debate anyone.

If the Repugs have any sense, they'll ignore him, and run against
the Kommie. Make it clear, by insinuation, that the election is between
HER and the Repugnicon (whoever).

--
Rich

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
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On Friday, April 28, 2023 at 2:41:22 PM UTC-4, RichD wrote:

On April 28, BTSinAustin wrote:

None of this matters, the primaries are already rigged, even more so than HRC in 2016.
Plus no debates LOL.
I would pay huge money to see the cardboard cutout POTUS debate anyone.

If the Repugs have any sense, they'll ignore him, and run against
the Kommie. Make it clear, by insinuation, that the election is between
HER and the Repugnicon (whoever).

--
Rich

Odds are we will have the worst lineup in my life, worse than HRC v Trump and Biden v Trump 1.0. At least the man could talk then, now not so much.

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On Friday, April 28, 2023 at 9:14:11 AM UTC-7, BTSinAustin wrote:

On Thursday, April 27, 2023 at 7:49:50 PM UTC-4, VegasJerry wrote:

THE WASHINGTON POST

Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s threat to Biden is inflated in polls. Here’s why.

Kennedy is pulling as much as 19 percent in early
polls, leading Republicans to hope he’ll damage Biden

The good news for President Biden’s just-launched 2024 reelection bid is that, for now, it doesn’t appear as though it will include a serious primary challenger. The bad news is that he’s ceding a significant and potentially embarrassing chunk

of voters to an anti-vaccine activist.

Multiple recent polls show Robert F. Kennedy Jr. pulling double-digit support in the primary, including a Fox News survey Wednesday that showed him at 19 percent.

That network has frequently covered Kennedy’s campaign and interviewed him more than once over the past week or so, as certain Republicans have made clear they see utility in elevating Kennedy to undercut Biden.

How much might the candidacy actually undercut Biden? It’s probably worth not overselling the early polls, for a few reasons.

The National Review this week published an article suggesting that such a double-digit performance from Kennedy could prove costly for Biden. No incumbent president in the past 50 years has ceded that much of the vote to a primary challenger and won

reelection, it noted.

That’s technically true, but it ignores a whole lot of nuance.

The first point is that we’re talking about a small sample size. There have been only three such instances, all more than 30 years ago: Ronald Reagan’s 1976 challenge to Gerald Ford, Ted Kennedy’s 1980 challenge to Jimmy Carter, and Pat

Buchanan’s 1992 challenge to George H.W. Bush.

But each of those primary challenges was also more significant than even the early polls suggest Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s is. Reagan took nearly half of primary votes in 1976, Ted Kennedy took more than one-third, and Buchanan won a surprising 37

percent of the vote in the 1992 New Hampshire primary and about one-quarter overall. In the first two cases in particular, there was genuine concern about the incumbent losing the nomination, not just losing a somewhat embarrassing number of votes.

The next point is that, in case you hadn’t noticed, one of those previous primary challengers shared a last name with Robert F. Kennedy Jr. The latest Kennedy is Ted’s and John F. Kennedy’s nephew and Sen. Robert F. Kennedy’s son.

There’s plenty of reason to believe his early poll standing is significantly inflated by his famous name.

A few weeks ago, another poll on Kennedy caught my eye. It was from YouGov, and it tested his image alongside a dozen other political figures. Of the 13 tested including Biden, Trump and congressional leaders, who was the most popular? Robert F.

Kennedy Jr. Nearly half of Americans had a favorable view of him (48 percent), compared to just 28 percent unfavorable.

Is this because Kennedy is actually that popular? Of course not. It’s doubtful many people really know all that much about him.

But there is probably no name in American politics that is more golden, particularly among left-leaning Americans. A Gallup poll last decade found more Americans thought John F. Kennedy was a good president (74 percent) than any other modern

president.

When you layer on top of that the fact that half of Democrats don’t even want Biden to run, it shouldn’t be too surprising that a fair number of people who haven’t really considered the 2024 race might go for a name they know.

We should all be skeptical that this will hold, particularly given Kennedy is best-known for his dubiously founded vaccine skepticism and that Democrats are increasingly the party of vaccines. that doesn’t mean losing voters to such a fringe figure

isn’t a headache for Biden, and perhaps some voters might like Kennedy’s environmental activism. But the idea that Kennedy will approach even a Buchanan level of support seems unlikely, the early polls notwithstanding.

More likely, it seems, is that this might be a situation akin to 1996. Then, as today, many Democrats didn’t want Bill Clinton to run again, and fringe figure Lyndon LaRouche managed to pull double digits in some primary states. A Chicago woman who

reportedly believed that God told her to spend a $120,000 disability settlement to run for president took 11 percent in Oklahoma. (Clinton went on to win reelection easily despite this.)

We’ve actually seen very recently how this precise name can translate into a sugar high in the polls.

The 2017 Alabama U.S. Senate special election featured a candidate by the name of Robert Kennedy Jr. (no actual relation this time). And a late Democratic primary poll showed him with a shocking share of the vote: 49 percent. That was more than 20

points ahead of the national party’s favored candidate, Doug Jones, despite Kennedy not seeming to have run an actual campaign.

“I understand that my name will give me some points,” that Robert Kennedy Jr. said when the poll came out. “But to suggest that my name in that particular poll gave me 49 points is disrespectful to the voters.”

Three weeks later, he received 18 percent of the vote, losing to Jones by nearly 50 points.
______________

None of this matters, the primaries are already rigged, even more so than HRC in 2016. Plus no debates LOL.

I would pay huge money to see the cardboard cutout POTUS debate anyone.

.

Replay the last one where Trump got his ass kicked by Biden.

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

On Friday, April 28, 2023 at 12:04:07 PM UTC-7, BTSinAustin wrote:

On Friday, April 28, 2023 at 2:41:22 PM UTC-4, RichD wrote:

On April 28, BTSinAustin wrote:

None of this matters, the primaries are already rigged, even more so than HRC in 2016.
Plus no debates LOL.
I would pay huge money to see the cardboard cutout POTUS debate anyone.

If the Repugs have any sense, they'll ignore him, and run against
the Kommie. Make it clear, by insinuation, that the election is between HER and the Repugnicon (whoever).

--
Rich

Odds are we will have the worst lineup in my life, worse than HRC v Trump and Biden v Trump 1.0. At least the man could talk then, now not so much.

.

"Worse" how? Because of 'talk?' The 'worse' was that Obama was the best in a generation and Trump the worst in our history.

It comes down to the original question I asked. "Why are you voting Republican?" I never got an answer.

(Well, I got one, from Popinjay; "Because I hate your guts.")

It's the party politics you voting for. It's why most of us have no trouble:

"No, I don't want to lose my Social Security and Medicare just so the rich can get another tax cut."

Why are YOU voting to lose your Social Security and Healthcare?

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
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On Friday, April 28, 2023 at 4:29:47 PM UTC-7, VegasJerry wrote:

"Worse" how? Because of 'talk?' The 'worse' was that Obama was the best in a generation and Trump the worst in our history.

Talk? Biden is fully alzheimers. My dad had alzheimers in the end and I very easily recognize that in Biden. Furthermore, I can tell make pretty good guesses when they've jacked him up with aricept or some other alzheimers drug to keep him a bit
functional. I can guarantee you at nighttime biden becomes an absolute freak show and has to be controlled.....and certainly he's at the point of shitting himself at any time, so you know they have him wearing a diaper and controlling what he eats and
when. My guess is they give him lots of ice cream so they don't have to deal with shit as much.


--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
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On Friday, April 28, 2023 at 9:38:50 PM UTC-7, jack roth wrote:

On Friday, April 28, 2023 at 4:29:47 PM UTC-7, VegasJerry wrote:

"Worse" how? Because of 'talk?' The 'worse' was that Obama was the best in a generation and Trump the worst in our history.

.

Talk? Biden is fully alzheimers.

See what I mean about your ignorance?
See what I mean about you still eating admitted bullshit from FOX, then puking up their lies here?
See what I mean about you still not knowing Fox admitting it lies to it’s viewers?

No, he does not have Alzheimer’s, he’s a recovering stutter. AND YOU DIDN’T KNOW!

My dad had alzheimers in the end and I very easily recognize that in Biden.

See? Alzheimer run in the family, and it appears you’re in the first stages.

Furthermore, I can tell make pretty good guesses when they've jacked him up with aricept or some other
alzheimers drug to keep him a bit functional.

Heh, but this self-admitted hallucination is ALL YOURS. LOL!

I can guarantee you ….

And you’re as worthless as your ‘guarantee.’

… at nighttime biden becomes an absolute freak show and has to be controlled.....and certainly he's at the
point of shitting himself at any time, so you know they have him wearing a diaper and controlling what he
eats and when. My guess is they give him lots of ice cream so they don't have to deal with shit as much.

Heh, you just Guaranteed your hallucinations for all of us to see. Now we’ll see how fast you Run & Hide.

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