• Why incarceration works

    From risky biz@21:1/5 to All on Mon Mar 6 12:05:32 2023
    Democratic NY City mayor Eric Adams:
    “We have a recidivism problem in New York and far too many people, there’s about 2,000 people who are repeatedly catch, release, repeat in crimes,” Adams said. “If we don’t take them off our streets, they’re going to continue to prey on
    innocent people.” https://nypost.com/2023/03/05/adams-says-lightfoots-loss-in-chicago-is-warning-sign-for-country/

    Higher incarceration rates = lower number of violent crimes http://cdn2.vox-cdn.com/assets/4385485/Screen_Shot_2014-04-30_at_3.36.46_PM.png

    👉Incarceration rate one tenth of 1%. Homicide, motor vehicle theft and burglary aggressively climbing at a 45° angle.

    👉Incarceration rate five tenths of 1%. Homicide, motor vehicle theft and burglary aggressively DECLINE at a 45° angle.

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
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  • From BillB@21:1/5 to risky biz on Mon Mar 6 12:51:48 2023
    On Monday, March 6, 2023 at 12:05:36 PM UTC-8, risky biz wrote:
    Democratic NY City mayor Eric Adams:
    “We have a recidivism problem in New York and far too many people, there’s about 2,000 people who are repeatedly catch, release, repeat in crimes,” Adams said. “If we don’t take them off our streets, they’re going to continue to prey on
    innocent people.”
    https://nypost.com/2023/03/05/adams-says-lightfoots-loss-in-chicago-is-warning-sign-for-country/

    Higher incarceration rates = lower number of violent crimes http://cdn2.vox-cdn.com/assets/4385485/Screen_Shot_2014-04-30_at_3.36.46_PM.png

    Looks like the crime rates are about the same as they were 60 years ago, even though the incarceration rate in 5x higher. Oh well.

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From risky biz@21:1/5 to BillB on Mon Mar 6 13:02:20 2023
    On Monday, March 6, 2023 at 12:51:52 PM UTC-8, BillB wrote:
    On Monday, March 6, 2023 at 12:05:36 PM UTC-8, risky biz wrote:
    Democratic NY City mayor Eric Adams:
    “We have a recidivism problem in New York and far too many people, there’s about 2,000 people who are repeatedly catch, release, repeat in crimes,” Adams said. “If we don’t take them off our streets, they’re going to continue to prey on
    innocent people.”
    https://nypost.com/2023/03/05/adams-says-lightfoots-loss-in-chicago-is-warning-sign-for-country/

    Higher incarceration rates = lower number of violent crimes http://cdn2.vox-cdn.com/assets/4385485/Screen_Shot_2014-04-30_at_3.36.46_PM.png

    ~ Looks like the crime rates are about the same as they were 60 years ago, even though the incarceration rate in 5x higher. Oh well.


    Bill Blabbermouth, certified '98% of the graph doesn't count' expert. LOL.

    Mushbrain.

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From BillB@21:1/5 to risky biz on Mon Mar 6 13:16:17 2023
    On Monday, March 6, 2023 at 1:02:24 PM UTC-8, risky biz wrote:
    On Monday, March 6, 2023 at 12:51:52 PM UTC-8, BillB wrote:
    On Monday, March 6, 2023 at 12:05:36 PM UTC-8, risky biz wrote:
    Democratic NY City mayor Eric Adams:
    “We have a recidivism problem in New York and far too many people, there’s about 2,000 people who are repeatedly catch, release, repeat in crimes,” Adams said. “If we don’t take them off our streets, they’re going to continue to prey on
    innocent people.”
    https://nypost.com/2023/03/05/adams-says-lightfoots-loss-in-chicago-is-warning-sign-for-country/

    Higher incarceration rates = lower number of violent crimes http://cdn2.vox-cdn.com/assets/4385485/Screen_Shot_2014-04-30_at_3.36.46_PM.png
    ~ Looks like the crime rates are about the same as they were 60 years ago, even though the incarceration rate in 5x higher. Oh well.


    Bill Blabbermouth, certified '98% of the graph doesn't count' expert. LOL.

    Mushbrain.

    Over a period of sixty years, as incarceration rates increased by a factor of five, crime went up and came down, and ended up right about where it started. That is not great support for your half-baked and hopelessly simplistic theory. Have you checked
    to see if very similar countries like Canada had a similar steep decrease in crime around the same period *without* that rapid increase in incarceration rate? Have you considered the fact that correlation does not equal causation and that there may be
    other important factors driving that decline (ex. age demographics)?

    But you are right to an extent, in that if you locked up everyone there would be less crime. lol But that is hardly practical, affordable or desirable. Sociologists and criminologists who have studied the topic have tended to conclude that increased
    incarceration does lower crime, but the effect is rather marginal once you control for all the other more important factors. The real key is not creating criminals in the first place.

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
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  • From risky biz@21:1/5 to BillB on Mon Mar 6 13:22:24 2023
    On Monday, March 6, 2023 at 1:16:21 PM UTC-8, BillB wrote:
    On Monday, March 6, 2023 at 1:02:24 PM UTC-8, risky biz wrote:
    On Monday, March 6, 2023 at 12:51:52 PM UTC-8, BillB wrote:
    On Monday, March 6, 2023 at 12:05:36 PM UTC-8, risky biz wrote:
    Democratic NY City mayor Eric Adams:
    “We have a recidivism problem in New York and far too many people, there’s about 2,000 people who are repeatedly catch, release, repeat in crimes,” Adams said. “If we don’t take them off our streets, they’re going to continue to prey
    on innocent people.”
    https://nypost.com/2023/03/05/adams-says-lightfoots-loss-in-chicago-is-warning-sign-for-country/

    Higher incarceration rates = lower number of violent crimes http://cdn2.vox-cdn.com/assets/4385485/Screen_Shot_2014-04-30_at_3.36.46_PM.png
    ~ Looks like the crime rates are about the same as they were 60 years ago, even though the incarceration rate in 5x higher. Oh well.



    Bill Blabbermouth, certified '98% of the graph doesn't count' expert. LOL.

    Mushbrain.

    ~ Over a period of sixty years, as incarceration rates increased by a factor of five, crime went up and came down, and ended up right about where it started. That is not great support for your half-baked and hopelessly simplistic theory. Have you checked
    to see if very similar countries like Canada had a similar steep decrease in crime around the same period *without* that rapid increase in incarceration rate? Have you considered the fact that correlation does not equal causation and that there may be
    other important factors driving that decline (ex. age demographics)?

    But you are right to an extent, in that if you locked up everyone there would be less crime. lol But that is hardly practical, affordable or desirable. Sociologists and criminologists who have studied the topic have tended to conclude that increased
    incarceration does lower crime, but the effect is rather marginal once you control for all the other more important factors. The real key is not creating criminals in the first place.


    Go away, troll.

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From BillB@21:1/5 to risky biz on Mon Mar 6 13:24:12 2023
    On Monday, March 6, 2023 at 1:22:27 PM UTC-8, risky biz wrote:
    On Monday, March 6, 2023 at 1:16:21 PM UTC-8, BillB wrote:
    On Monday, March 6, 2023 at 1:02:24 PM UTC-8, risky biz wrote:
    On Monday, March 6, 2023 at 12:51:52 PM UTC-8, BillB wrote:
    On Monday, March 6, 2023 at 12:05:36 PM UTC-8, risky biz wrote:
    Democratic NY City mayor Eric Adams:
    “We have a recidivism problem in New York and far too many people, there’s about 2,000 people who are repeatedly catch, release, repeat in crimes,” Adams said. “If we don’t take them off our streets, they’re going to continue to
    prey on innocent people.”
    https://nypost.com/2023/03/05/adams-says-lightfoots-loss-in-chicago-is-warning-sign-for-country/

    Higher incarceration rates = lower number of violent crimes http://cdn2.vox-cdn.com/assets/4385485/Screen_Shot_2014-04-30_at_3.36.46_PM.png
    ~ Looks like the crime rates are about the same as they were 60 years ago, even though the incarceration rate in 5x higher. Oh well.



    Bill Blabbermouth, certified '98% of the graph doesn't count' expert. LOL.

    Mushbrain.
    ~ Over a period of sixty years, as incarceration rates increased by a factor of five, crime went up and came down, and ended up right about where it started. That is not great support for your half-baked and hopelessly simplistic theory. Have you
    checked to see if very similar countries like Canada had a similar steep decrease in crime around the same period *without* that rapid increase in incarceration rate? Have you considered the fact that correlation does not equal causation and that there
    may be other important factors driving that decline (ex. age demographics)?

    But you are right to an extent, in that if you locked up everyone there would be less crime. lol But that is hardly practical, affordable or desirable. Sociologists and criminologists who have studied the topic have tended to conclude that increased
    incarceration does lower crime, but the effect is rather marginal once you control for all the other more important factors. The real key is not creating criminals in the first place.
    Go away, troll.

    ^^ incapable of learning

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From da pickle@21:1/5 to risky biz on Wed Mar 8 09:18:59 2023
    On 3/6/2023 3:22 PM, risky biz wrote:
    On Monday, March 6, 2023 at 1:16:21 PM UTC-8, BillB wrote:
    On Monday, March 6, 2023 at 1:02:24 PM UTC-8, risky biz wrote:
    On Monday, March 6, 2023 at 12:51:52 PM UTC-8, BillB wrote:
    On Monday, March 6, 2023 at 12:05:36 PM UTC-8, risky biz wrote:
    Democratic NY City mayor Eric Adams:
    “We have a recidivism problem in New York and far too many people, there’s about 2,000 people who are repeatedly catch, release, repeat in crimes,” Adams said. “If we don’t take them off our streets, they’re going to continue to prey on
    innocent people.”
    https://nypost.com/2023/03/05/adams-says-lightfoots-loss-in-chicago-is-warning-sign-for-country/

    Higher incarceration rates = lower number of violent crimes
    http://cdn2.vox-cdn.com/assets/4385485/Screen_Shot_2014-04-30_at_3.36.46_PM.png
    ~ Looks like the crime rates are about the same as they were 60 years ago, even though the incarceration rate in 5x higher. Oh well.



    Bill Blabbermouth, certified '98% of the graph doesn't count' expert. LOL. >>>
    Mushbrain.

    ~ Over a period of sixty years, as incarceration rates increased by a factor of five, crime went up and came down, and ended up right about where it started. That is not great support for your half-baked and hopelessly simplistic theory. Have you
    checked to see if very similar countries like Canada had a similar steep decrease in crime around the same period *without* that rapid increase in incarceration rate? Have you considered the fact that correlation does not equal causation and that there
    may be other important factors driving that decline (ex. age demographics)?

    But you are right to an extent, in that if you locked up everyone there would be less crime. lol But that is hardly practical, affordable or desirable. Sociologists and criminologists who have studied the topic have tended to conclude that increased
    incarceration does lower crime, but the effect is rather marginal once you control for all the other more important factors. The real key is not creating criminals in the first place.


    Go away, troll.

    His

    "... correlation does not equal causation ... " always comes back to
    bite him ... and then he slinks away ...

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From da pickle@21:1/5 to da pickle on Fri Mar 10 09:51:46 2023
    On 3/8/2023 9:18 AM, da pickle wrote:
    On 3/6/2023 3:22 PM, risky biz wrote:
    On Monday, March 6, 2023 at 1:16:21 PM UTC-8, BillB wrote:
    On Monday, March 6, 2023 at 1:02:24 PM UTC-8, risky biz wrote:
    On Monday, March 6, 2023 at 12:51:52 PM UTC-8, BillB wrote:
    On Monday, March 6, 2023 at 12:05:36 PM UTC-8, risky biz wrote:
    Democratic NY City mayor Eric Adams:
    “We have a recidivism problem in New York and far too many people, >>>>>> there’s about 2,000 people who are repeatedly catch, release,
    repeat in crimes,” Adams said. “If we don’t take them off our >>>>>> streets, they’re going to continue to prey on innocent people.” >>>>>> https://nypost.com/2023/03/05/adams-says-lightfoots-loss-in-chicago-is-warning-sign-for-country/

    Higher incarceration rates = lower number of violent crimes
    http://cdn2.vox-cdn.com/assets/4385485/Screen_Shot_2014-04-30_at_3.36.46_PM.png
    ~ Looks like the crime rates are about the same as they were 60
    years ago, even though the incarceration rate in 5x higher. Oh well.



    Bill Blabbermouth, certified '98% of the graph doesn't count'
    expert. LOL.

    Mushbrain.

    ~ Over a period of sixty years, as incarceration rates increased by a
    factor of five, crime went up and came down, and ended up right about
    where it started. That is not great support for your half-baked and
    hopelessly simplistic theory. Have you checked to see if very similar
    countries like Canada had a similar steep decrease in crime around the
    same period *without* that rapid increase in incarceration rate? Have
    you considered the fact that correlation does not equal causation and
    that there may be other important factors driving that decline (ex.
    age demographics)?

    But you are right to an extent, in that if you locked up everyone
    there would be less crime. lol But that is hardly practical,
    affordable or desirable. Sociologists and criminologists who have
    studied the topic have tended to conclude that increased
    incarceration does lower crime, but the effect is rather marginal
    once you control for all the other more important factors. The real
    key is not creating criminals in the first place.


    Go away, troll.

    His

    "... correlation does not equal causation ... " always comes back to
    bite him ... and then he slinks away ...

    This sort of stupid mistake is really not like him at all ... health
    problems may have taken over. We will miss him.

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)