The Morning
June 18, 2025

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Good morning. President Trump suggested that the U.S. could join the
conflict against Iran. ICE agents arrested a candidate for New York City
mayor. The Gaza health ministry said dozens of Palestinians were killed
while awaiting food aid.

More news is below. But first, we explain why Israel chose this moment
to go to war with Iran.
Smoke fills the sky over Tehran.
In Tehran yesterday. Arash Khamooshi for The New York Times
The war, explained
Author Headshot

By German Lopez

One way to look at Israel’s war with Iran is that it’s a natural
escalation of the battles that the Jewish state has fought since the
Oct. 7 attack. Israel has leveled much of Gaza to destroy Hamas, which
is backed by Iran. It bombed Lebanon and Yemen to counter Hezbollah and
the Houthi militia, both of which are also backed by Iran. Now, instead
of focusing on proxies, Israel is taking its fight directly to Iran.

But the timing matters. After all, the conflict between Israel and Iran
isn’t new. Iran’s leaders have called for Israel’s destruction for decades. Israel’s prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, has characterized
Iran as an existential threat for decades. Western officials have
debated the wisdom of a pre-emptive attack on Iran’s nuclear program for decades.

What’s new is that Israel now believes it can win.
Why now?

Three issues led Israel to strike last week:

Nuclear weapons: Israeli officials claim that Iranian scientists are
close to making a nuclear weapon — potentially months away. (U.S.
officials are more divided on the topic, CNN reported.) Netanyahu said
he had to strike now before they completed their work.

More urgently, though, Netanyahu likely worried that President Trump
would sign a new nuclear agreement with Iran’s leaders. Israel opposed
the previous deal, established under Barack Obama, in part because it
let Iran keep some nonmilitary nuclear capabilities. If Trump reached a
similar agreement, Israel couldn’t strike without violating the spirit
of that deal and upsetting its biggest ally.

At least for now, Israel has global support in this mission. Western
countries see Iran as a threat because it has supported militants around
the world. They’re happy to let Israel take the burden of dismantling Iran’s nuclear program, even if they disagree with Israel on other
issues. Several Group of 7 countries condemned Israel last month for its offensive in Gaza but blessed it Monday for its strikes on Iran.

Iran’s weakness: Iran is not doing well. Years of sanctions have eroded
its economy. Israel and the United States have killed many of its
military leaders. They’ve also pummeled its proxies across the Middle
East. All of this limits Iran’s ability to retaliate.

The decimation of Iran’s proxies is particularly important to Israel.
Years ago, Hamas and Hezbollah would have responded to strikes on Iran
with direct attacks in Tel Aviv and other Israeli cities. Now, Israel
can hit Iran without stressing as much about the home front.

Domestic politics: Since the Oct. 7 attack, Netanyahu has faced
conflicting political pressure from his right and left flanks. The right
wants a more aggressive war in Gaza, focused on obliterating Hamas and reoccupying the territory. The left wants Netanyahu to focus on bringing
home the hostages taken by Hamas, even if it means letting the group
survive. Netanyahu also faces corruption charges that could land him in
prison if he lost power, and his governing coalition has strained over
debates about military service requirements for ultra-Orthodox Jews.

But strikes on Iran have widespread support. Israelis broadly see Iran
as an existential threat, and they support destroying its nuclear
capabilities. It’s a winning issue, with an election slated for next year. What’s next?

Israel’s war with Iran is likely to last weeks, not days, my colleague Patrick Kingsley reported from Jerusalem. That’s a lot of time for escalation.

One unknown: Trump says he may join the fray. To truly dismantle Iran’s nuclear program, Israel needs a particular U.S. bomb to strike
facilities buried deep underground. But Trump ran for president
promising “no more wars,” and parts of his MAGA base take an
isolationist view of the world.

Trump, however, might go back on his word. Yesterday, he reiterated that
Iran should never get nuclear weapons, demanded the country’s “UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER” and threatened to kill its supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
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HOW WE COVER THE CONFLICT
People cry over a body draped in an Iranian flag.

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