• Spiderweb - "This attack is a window to future war,"

    From a425couple@21:1/5 to All on Tue Jun 3 08:13:20 2025
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    from https://www.businessinsider.com/operation-spiderweb-5-ways-ukraine-drone-attack-new-era-warfare-2025-6

    5 ways Ukraine's audacious 'Spiderweb' drone attack marks a new threat
    for top militaries
    By Mia Jankowicz
    A blurry aerial image of a Tu-95 "Bear" bomber at an air base.
    Ukraine struck aircraft like this Tu-95 "Bear" bomber at air bases
    across Russia on Sunday. EYEPRESS via Reuters Connect
    Jun 2, 2025, 12:33 PM PT

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    Ukraine's latest attack on Russian airfields has written a new chapter
    for drone tactics.
    Operatives snuck the drones into Russia and remotely launched them near
    bases, Ukraine said.
    These tactics highlight vulnerabilities for the world's most advanced militaries.
    The new tactics deployed by Ukraine in striking a reported 41 Russian
    warplanes have devastating implications — not only for Russia's air
    power but for all advanced militaries, defense experts told Business
    Insider.

    "This attack is a window to future war," said James Patton Rogers, a
    drone expert who's the executive director of the Cornell Brooks Tech
    Policy Institute.

    Ukraine has attacked Russia with drones many times before. But on
    Sunday, its Security Service, or SBU, targeted four Russian airfields simultaneously with a wildly creative gambit it dubbed "Operation
    Spiderweb."

    The SBU said operatives smuggled the military quadcopters into Russia,
    later packing them into wooden house-like structures. These were then
    mounted on trucks, which were driven close to the airfields, where the
    drones were launched, causing a reported $7 billion in damage. The
    proximity and number of small attack drones appear to have given air
    defense crews little, if any, chance to respond.

    While details of the attack need to be independently confirmed, initial
    visual information suggests that this is "a stunning success for
    Ukraine's special services," said Justin Bronk, an influential air power
    expert at the Royal United Services Institute.

    Here's what it could mean for Russia and the Ukraine war — and the rest
    of the world.

    Containers on wheels.
    Ukraine's Security Service used containers carried on trucks to smuggle
    attack drones near Russian military bases. EYEPRESS via Reuters Connect Limiting conventional air defences
    Ukraine's previous drone attacks have frequently been countered by
    Russia's advanced air defense systems, such as its S-300 and S-400
    missile launchers. But, it seems, these latest drones didn't need to run
    the S-400 gauntlet.

    The SBU said that rather than flying larger, long-range drones through
    Russian airspace from Ukraine, it trucked the containers out to the
    airfields, activating the smuggled drones after remotely retracting the
    roofs to release them.

    With a much-shortened and simplified journey to their target, the drones
    struck warplanes at the airfields of Belaya, Diaghilev, Olenya, and
    Ivanovo, the SBU said.

    A powerful statement of Ukraine going it alone
    Lithuania's former foreign minister Gabrielius Landsbergis said on
    Monday that the attack showed Ukraine's ability to innovate and surprise
    the world.

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    Russia's attack drones are flying higher and faster. A Ukrainian air
    defender says old machine guns aren't enough to kill them anymore.
    "Its scale and ingenuity — carried out without visible Western
    intelligence or logistical support — suggests Ukraine is now less
    reliant on outside help," he wrote.

    (Ukraine's Western backers, such as the US, have resisted providing the weaponry and intelligence Ukraine has sought for retaliation against
    Russian bases, from which it launches regular attacks on Ukrainian
    civilian infrastructure and defensive lines.)

    Powered largely by domestically produced armaments, Ukraine once again innovated "while the world talks, hosts meetings, and forms yet another 'coalition of the willing,'" Landsbergis wrote.

    "Ukraine is preparing to fight on its own terms," he added. "If you ever wondered what strategic autonomy looks like — this might be it."

    Ukraine showed that a fleet of $150 million bombers on a runway can be
    made prey to the kind of cheap drones modified slightly from racing and
    wedding photos.

    It enables Ukraine to hit deeper into Russia
    Prior to these coordinated strikes, Ukraine's drone attacks on Russia
    have reached as far as 1,100 miles from their shared border.

    That distance is dwarfed by the reach of Sunday's attack, where the
    farthest airfield, at Belaya in the eastern-central Irkutsk region, was
    more than 2,500 miles from Ukraine.

    Russia most likely viewed bases far from Ukraine as being at less risk
    of attack.

    Bronk said that even if only half of the reported 41 planes were damaged
    or destroyed, it would have a "significant impact" on Russia's ability
    to launch long-range cruise missile attacks on Ukraine's civilian infrastructure.

    Bronk estimates that Russia had about 60 active Tu-95 "Bear" bombers and
    about 20 Tu-160 "Blackjack" bombers involved in this aerial campaign,
    and he said replacing damaged planes would be a huge challenge, as
    production on both models has either slowed or halted completely in
    recent decades.

    An image from the camera of a drone showing a plane exploding.
    An image from a Ukrainian drone shows the large-scale attack on Russian military bombers in Siberia on Sunday. EYEPRESS via Reuters Connect
    No hard shelter for planes
    Videos and images from the attack show that the planes were parked in
    the open air, outside any shelter. This may have made them an easy target.

    Satellite images have suggested that this is a point of some anxiety for Russia, which appears to have tried to pile tires onto the wings of its
    bombers to try to trick visual guidance systems. An aircraft on the
    ground is highly vulnerable to attack and is wholly dependent on
    airborne aircraft and nearby air defenses.

    Russia isn't the only country with this issue.

    While China is reported to have enough hardened air shelters to house
    the majority of its combat aircraft, the US has invested far less in
    this capability.

    A US F-16 fighter jet sits in a hardened shelter.
    A US F-16 fighter jet in a hardened shelter at Spangdahlem Air Base in
    Germany in 2025. Senior Airman Demi M. Ebert/US Air Force
    'Sleeper' drones
    Ukraine didn't detail how it successfully smuggled the drones past
    Russian authorities. But the fact that it did so "highlights the
    vulnerability of Russian transport and logistics system," Patton Rogers
    said.

    "The question for Russia must be, how many more are lying in wait?" he said.

    At the same time, Russia has shown itself quick to learn throughout the
    war, which could worry the West.

    The attack is a "stark reminder" of a new phase in war, Karl Rosander,
    the CEO and cofounder of the Swedish defence tech startup Nordic Air
    Defence, said in emailed comments. "One where drones can be covertly
    deployed and lie dormant behind enemy lines, waiting to strike."

    It's "only a matter of time" before the tactic is taken up by Russia and
    other hostile state actors, he added.

    The implications of this are wide-ranging. An air base needs a
    combination of armored shelters for aircraft, electronic jammers to
    disrupt drone guidance systems, and enough missiles or guns to shoot
    them down.

    All are costs measured in billions of dollars — and Ukraine has just
    devised a new threat costing in the mere thousands.

    Patton Rogers questioned how vulnerable NATO air bases are to such
    attacks, while pointing out how the tactic could be adopted elsewhere.

    "Drones won't be confined to a set battlefield," he said.

    While long-range drones will continue to strike, weaponized short-range
    drones will be "hidden and waiting for launch" to attack deep inside
    adversary territory, he said, adding: "The question is, are NATO allies
    ready for this new reality?"


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