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from https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2025/03/ukraines-winning-cards-against-russia-in-the-black-sea/

Ukraine’s Winning Cards Against Russia In The Black Sea
Published on 12/03/2025
By H I Sutton
In News
Ukrainian Navy unmanned boat (USV) launches an FPV drone against Russian targets
An FPV drone's eye view of a Ukrainian Navy uncrewed vessel (USV) as it
lifts off. Ukraine continues to have the upper hand in both innovation
and impact.
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The war in the Black Sea is often characterised as the surface drone’s
arena. Ukraine has gained the upper hand, against the odds, and now
denies Russia sea control. It is an aspect of the war where Ukraine
holds the cards.

Ukraine’s Navy, vastly out gunned and overmatched by Russia’s Black Sea Fleet at the beginning of the 2022 invasion, has been fighting back.
Together with the country’s intelligence agencies, the HUR and SBU, it
has pushed the greater power back to its own coast. Russia has, despite
the odds stacked in its favour, lost sea control.

Ukraine can continue to dominate the Russian Navy in the Black Sea. It
has the means to inflict serious damage if the Russian fleet re-enters
the open waters, and at the same time has the ecosystem to continue
innovating and stay ahead. It is a space where most of the cards are now
in Ukraine’s hand.

The Big Reversal
Whereas Russian warships shelled Ukrainian targets from within eyeshot
of Odesa, they are now largely confined to the eastern Black Sea. And it
is now the Ukrainian Navy who are striking Russian targets on Crimea.
Initially this was driven by the deployment of shore based anti-ship
missiles in spring 2022. The watershed came when two indigenous Neptune missiles sunk the Russian flagship, Moskva in April 2022. Together with subsequent strikes, this effectively pushed the Russians back over the
radar horizon.

It was the arrival of uncrewed surface vessels (USVs), together with
Storm Shadow and later ATACMS missiles which could hit ships inside
Sevastopol, which pushed them further east. Only the USVs can really hit Russian ships in the furthest reaches of the Eastern Black Sea. The
Russian fleet is now confined to the port of Novorossiysk, far away from
Odesa.

The Russian Navy for its part has continued to launch Kalibr cruise
missiles against Ukrainian cities. And at sea they continue to develop
defences against the Ukrainian USVs. Thus although the situation is
largely reversed, the Russian Navy remains a serious threat.

Russia’s grip on Crimea is about more than just the famous naval base at Sevastopol. That is a strategic asset, but so are the natural resources
in the waters around the peninsular. The borders of the EEZ (exclusive
economic zone) could give Russia a vast swathe of Ukraine’s natural gas reserves. Thus the lines on the map, even at sea, are thus
consequential. This had made the withdrawal of the Russian Navy from
Sevastopol all the more significant.

The Fight-On Scenario – It Gets Harder
Politically the situation is developing fast. One scenario may see
Ukraine pressured into a lop-sided deal which amounts to a surrender. In
which case building capabilities to deter Russia’s next wave of
invasion, which many believe will be inevitable, will be key. But
another scenario to consider is that Ukraine fights on, without American support.

The fight would be more challenging for Ukraine. Although some Ukrainian
USVs have varying level of U.S input, it is not the hardware which will
be most affected. The loss of American intelligence sharing could make
it safer for Russian Navy ships to return to open waters.

Russian warships might for example feel safer in the Northwest Black
Sea, an area where they haven’t been active for months. Ukrainian USVs
and naval forces would equally feel less aware of approaching Russian
assets.

However, these capabilities can be largely replaced by other allies, and
can be further developed in-country. Ukraine’s uncrewed platforms will continue to have a cost and disposability advantage over the traditional
crewed Russian Navy. Possibly Russia will also increase the use of
uncrewed platforms. There are signs that Russian weaponized USVs are
already on the battlefield, but so far not visibly. Even in that future however, the cards remain in Ukraine’s hands.

Tags
Russia, Ukraine
Picture of H I Sutton
H I Sutton
H I Sutton writes about the secretive and under-reported submarines,
seeking out unusual and interesting vessels and technologies involved in fighting beneath the waves. Submarines, capabilities, naval special
forces underwater vehicles and the changing world of underwater warfare
and seabed warfare. To do this he combines the latest Open Source
Intelligence (OSINT) with the traditional art and science of defense
analysis. He occasionally writes non-fiction books on these topics and
draws analysis-based illustrations to bring the subject to life. In
addition, H I Sutton is a naval history buff and data geek. His personal website about these topics is Covert Shores (www.hisutton.com)

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