XPost: soc.history.war.misc, sci.military.naval, alt.astronomy
XPost: or.politics

from https://www.businessinsider.com/china-taiwan-invasion-plan-rethink-after-iran-attacks-israel-report-2024-4

China's scenarios for invading Taiwan could be altered following Iran's
failed attack on Israel, report says
Cameron Manley Apr 21, 2024, 10:11 AM PDT

Chinese military vehicles carrying DF-21D anti-ship ballistic missiles, potentially capable of sinking a U.S. Nimitz-class aircraft carrier in a
single strike, drive past the Tiananmen Gate during a military parade to
mark the 70th anniversary of the end of World War Two on September 3,
2015, in Beijing, China.
Chinese military vehicles carrying DF-21D anti-ship ballistic missiles
during a military parade in 2015. Andy Wong - Pool /Getty Images

China is likely analyzing Iran's failed attack on Israel to prepare for
a possible invasion of Taiwan.
Experts believe China will focus on how Israel and its allies thwarted
the attack, a report said.
Tensions between China and Taiwan have heightened in recent years.
Insider Today

China will analyze the failed Iranian drone and missile attack on Israel
in order to better prepare for an invasion of Taiwan, experts believe.

Iran launched more than 300 drones and missiles in a direct attack on
Israel last week, but Israel and its allies were able to shoot down most
of the munitions.

Rupert Hammond-Chambers, the president of the US-Taiwan Business
Council, told The Telegraph that China would likely look at the incident
to work out how it could get past the technology and the alliance that
foiled the attack.

"They will be picking apart what transpired, not just in the way in
which the Iranians attacked but also how we responded – the Israelis and
the coalition that supported them," he said.

"The kill rate for the drones and the missiles was extremely high,
almost perfect. The walk-away for the PLA [People's Liberation Army]
will be that the Americans and their allies have the technology to significantly blunt an attack," he added.

xi jinping
Chinese President Xi Jingping. Reuters
Much like Israel, Taipei expects to be able to rely on US support in the
event of an attack from China, which considers Taiwan a part of its
territory.

A vote in the US House of Representatives on Saturday, which saw almost
$61 billion in aid for Ukraine approved by the US House, also confirmed
that around $8 billion would go toward security in the Indo-Pacific
region, including to Taiwan.

Related stories

Iran's unprecedented attack on Israel has pushed the region to the edge
— but not past the point of no return yet, analyst says

Iran will learn from its failed attack on Israel and work to make its
next big attack more devastating, war analysts warn

Iran doesn't want to get into a full-on war, but that won't stop it
threatening one

However, Hammond-Chambers did not believe the pro-Taiwan alliance was
operating as smoothly as in the case of Israel.

"The Jordanians, the Brits, the States and the Israelis all worked
together to negate the Iranian attack. To what extent do we have that in
place in North Asia?" Hammond-Chambers said, per The Telegraph.

"It's coming but I've not seen that yet – that common operating platform
that allows for seamless interoperability," he added.

It follows a warning from former commander of the Office of Naval
Intelligence Mike Studeman, in which he said Beijing appeared to be on
the "march to war."

In an article for War on the Rocks, Studeman wrote: "The war machine of
the People's Liberation Army continues to modernize at a sprint in every
area."

"In 2020, Xi accelerated significant military milestones from 2035 to
2027 because he wanted China's military to modernize faster and give him
Taiwan options earlier," he added.

Tensions have risen between China and Taiwan since the island's
Democratic Progressive Party, which favors independence from China, won
a third consecutive term in Taiwan's 2024 presidential elections.

In August 2022, following then-speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi's visit
to Taiwan, tensions reached near-boiling point as China began military exercises over the island, including "live-fire drills."

In April 2023, China again launched military drills around the island
after then-president Tsai Ing-wen visited the US.

At the time, China described the drills as a "stern warning against the collusion between separatist forces."

Read next

MILITARY & DEFENSE
Iran's unprecedented attack on Israel has pushed the region to the edge
— but not past the point of no return yet, analyst says

MILITARY & DEFENSE
Iran will learn from its failed attack on Israel and work to make its
next big attack more devastating, war analysts warn

MILITARY & DEFENSE
Iran doesn't want to get into a full-on war, but that won't stop it
threatenin

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)