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Are we prepared for Chinese preeminence on the moon and Mars? (op-ed)
News
By Chris Carberry, Joe Cassady published April 19, 2024
China is moving fast in the final frontier.
Comments (27)
an illustration of a Chinese moon base
Artist's illustration of a possible Chinese moon base. (Image credit: gremlin/Getty Images)
Chris Carberry is CEO of Explore Mars, Inc. and author of "The Music of
Space" and "Alcohol in Space." Joe Cassady is Director, Civil Space at
L3Harris as well as Executive VP of Explore Mars, Inc. They contributed
this article to Space.com's Expert Voices: Op-Ed & Insights.
The United States appears to be entering the golden age of space
exploration. Over the past few years, the nation has conducted an
unprecedented number of launches, countless space hardware developments,
and notched innumerable other milestones. Nevertheless, despite these accomplishments, the United States could lose its decades-old leadership
in space exploration and technology to China.
The People's Republic of China (PRC) is making steady drives forward in
all aspects of human and robotics capabilities. China's space
accomplishments over the past few years include the success of the Long
March 5B heavy-lift vehicle and the construction of the Tiangong space
station. In 2019, China became the first nation to successfully
"soft-land" a vehicle, the robotic Chang'e 4 rover-lander duo, on the
far side of the moon. Then, a year later, the Chang'e 5 mission
successfully accomplished a sample-return mission from the moon.
Related: China moving at 'breathtaking speed' in final frontier, Space
Force says
More recently, on March 20, 2024, China launched its relay satellite, Queqiao-2. This accomplishment will enable the Chinese to conduct
operations on the far side of the moon, and lays the groundwork for the
Chang'e 6 lunar far side sample return mission later this year, to be
followed by the Chang'e 7 lander and rover in 2026 and the Chang'e 8
mission in 2028, which will include a lunar In-Situ Resource Utilization
(ISRU) demonstration. China has also announced a goal for surface
missions by Chinese taikonauts, possibly by 2030. And, as the United
States and its partners continue to struggle with achieving a Mars
Sample Return mission, China has announced its goal to conduct such a
mission in 2030.
While these accomplishments still pale by comparison to those of the
United States over the past 60 years, the rate at which the Chinese have
been catching up is alarming. According to a 2022 Pentagon report, the
U.S. could lose its lead in space technology as soon as 2045. The report
notes that, while U.S. industrial capacity is expanding, "the upward
trajectory of the People's Republic of China…is even steeper, with a significant rate of overtake, requiring urgent action." The report added
that "the U.S. lacks a clear and cohesive long-term vision, a grand
strategy for space that sustains economic, technological, environmental,
social and military (defense) leadership for the next half century and
beyond."
a banner advertising a conference titled "humans to mars"
Learn more about the 2024 Humans to Mars summit here. (Image credit: ExploreMars.Org)
Why is this important? Investment in space exploration and development capabilities is an investment in the country. These endeavors bolster innovation and new markets, as well as national standing, diplomacy and national security, while at the same time assure that the United States
remains the undisputed leader in scientific discovery, inspiration and
STEM (science, technology, engineering and math) education. And while
NASA is a civilian space agency, we can't ignore the broader
implications of surrendering our lead in space. According to the
U.S-China Economic and Security Review Commission's report to Congress, "Beijing has specific plans not merely to explore space, but to
industrially dominate the space within the moon's orbit of Earth. China
has invested significant resources in exploring the national security
and economic value of this area, including its potential for space-based manufacturing, resource extraction, and power generation, although
experts differ on the feasibility of some of these activities."
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The good news is that the United States still has a clear advantage in
this competition. Over the past several years, we have seen the
successful launch of the Artemis 1 mission, with Artemis 2 and 3
scheduled to occur by the end of 2027. Meanwhile, commercial entities
are launching at an unprecedented rate, significantly expanding our
overall national capacity to reach space. In short, this is our race to
lose.
Related: NASA's Artemis program: Everything you need to know
Given the progress that the United States has made in developing space infrastructure and capabilities in recent years, why are we at risk of
being surpassed? Dean Cheng of the U.S. Institute of Peace told us
thatpart of the problem is, “while people are interested in space, it is
not as in the public imagination and concern as it was during the Space
Race of the 1960s, when there were space launches every few weeks.
Ironically, because space has become more routinized, there is less
concern about competition.” With so many other major national issues
that hold center stage, the Administration and Congress also do not
appear to be appropriately focused and motivated in what truly
constitutes the new Space Race. Stable bipartisan support remains, but
we seem to lack a sense of national urgency.
Nevertheless, unlike most domestic programs, our plan to send humans to
the moon and Mars is something of a "unicorn" in our divisive political environment. It represents a program and an objective that has had
strong bipartisan support for over a decade. This rare example of
political solidarity should not be ignored. It should be embraced as
evidence that our elected officials can unite on some issues — and in so doing, help to solidify our national standing for decades to come.
However, we must not repeat the policy mistakes of the Apollo program of
the 1960s and early 1970s. While Apollo successfully landed crews on the
moon by the end of the 1960s, it was not a sustainable program from a
budgetary or political perspective. Upwards of 4%of the annual federal
budget was committed to Apollo (as compared to NASA's current budget of
less than 0.5% of the federal budget). The program also only had one significant political objective — to beat the Soviet Union to the moon.
It succeeded spectacularly in this regard. It was unquestionably a major milestone in human history. But after its success and the realization
that the Soviet Union was abandoning its lunar aspirations, there
remained little political motivation to continue the program, and it was abruptly halted.
RELATED STORIES:
— 'We're in a space race:' NASA chief says US 'better watch out' for China
— China plans to put astronauts on the moon before 2030
— US must beat China back to the moon, Congress tells NASA
NASA's current budget is unlikely to increase dramatically in the near
future, but the United States can nevertheless still build a sustainable program that ensures that we retain our hard-earned status as the
preeminent space nation. Rather than the military-like campaign of the
Apollo program, we have a chance to prevail by harnessing the ingenuity
and capabilities of our U.S. commercial industry and our international partners. By doing so, we simultaneously advance a vital national
interest but also stimulate innovative new markets and strengthen our international alliances.
Are there risks? Of course. Virtually every great human accomplishment
has required innumerable forms of risk. However, by accepting these
risks, we will give ourselves a very real chance that the rest of the
21st century will not only be an American century but one where we have nurtured major new markets and created stronger international relations.
Note: An expert panel will be discussing this topic at the 2024 Humans
to Mars Summit taking place on May 7-8, 2024 at the Jack Morton
Auditorium, at the George Washington University in Washington, D.C.
Join our Space Forums to keep talking space on the latest missions,
night sky and more! And if you have a news tip, correction or comment,
let us know at:
[email protected].
Chris Carberry
Chris Carberry
CEO and co-founder of Explore Mars, Inc.
Chris Carberry is the CEO and co-founder of Explore Mars, Inc. (Explore
Mars), a 501(c)(3) nonprofit space advocacy. In this role, he has
overseen Explore Mars’ annual Humans to Mars Summit, the largest annual conference focused on sending humans to Mars, and has spearheaded dozens
of programs, projects, and outreach efforts. Prior to joining Explore
Mars, Carberry served as Executive Director of The Mars Society.
Carberry has presented oral (and written) testimony to both the United
States Senate as well as the United States House of Representatives. He
is also the author of over 100 articles that have appeared in
publications around the world and has been featured in over 100 national
and international television, radio programs and podcasts. Carberry is
the author of the 2019 book "Alcohol in Space: Past, Present and
Future," which is currently being adapted into documentary film that
will be released in 2023. Carberry also has two books scheduled for
release: "Scoring Space" (2023) and "A Future Spacefaring Society" (2024).
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