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  • Re: Joe has managed to revise the interest in revisions

    From mINE109@21:1/5 to ScottW on Thu Feb 8 13:23:44 2024
    On 2/8/24 12:45 PM, ScottW wrote:
    Mention the government’s annual revisions to seasonal adjustment
    factors for monthly inflation data and you’re likely to make eyes
    glaze over, even among hardcore economics nerds. Not this year.

    Economists on Wall Street and in Washington will be tuning in for
    this year’s update, due Friday morning, because of what happened a
    year ago: The revisions to the consumer price index — typically small
    and therefore ignored — were large enough to cast doubt on overall inflation progress. Last year’s tweaks hit with a bang.

    Initial readings had shown consumer prices excluding food and energy
    — an important gauge of inflation’s underlying trend, closely watched
    by the Fed — had risen by just 3.1% on an annualized basis in the
    final three months of 2022, down from 8% in the same period of 2021.

    That positive signal proved a head fake. After the revisions, the
    3.1% was recalculated at a meaningfully higher 4.3%. And four days
    later, core CPI for January came in at an annualized 5.1%. Suddenly
    the tone around inflation, and the outlook for rates, had shifted.

    No reason to think that will happen this year.

    Fast forward a year and Friday’s release is receiving an unusual
    amount of attention, even as some economists are trying to tamp down
    the drama.

    Bidenomics, nothing but bad drama.

    Inspired by the recent upward revisions of the job creation numbers,
    surely and a continuing refusal to accept good economic news with a
    Democrat in the White House.

    It's a miracle we've come out of the pandemic with such a good economy.

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From mINE109@21:1/5 to All on Fri Feb 9 09:38:55 2024
    On 2/8/24 1:23 PM, mINE109 wrote:
    On 2/8/24 12:45 PM, ScottW wrote:
    That positive signal proved a head fake. After the revisions, the
    3.1% was recalculated at a meaningfully higher 4.3%. And four days
    later, core CPI for January came in at an annualized 5.1%. Suddenly
    the tone around inflation, and the outlook for rates, had shifted.

    No reason to think that will happen this year.

    Fast forward a year and Friday’s release is receiving an unusual
    amount of attention, even as some economists are trying to tamp down
    the drama.

    https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/stock-market-today-dow-jones-earnings-02-09-2024/card/disinflation-trend-remains-intact-after-latest-revisions-8At6ta8wo4XcMiaiITMK

    "The overall picture of an economy that saw a sustained cooling in price pressures over the second half of 2023 remains intact.

    Revisions to the consumer price index released by the Labor Department
    Friday showed that so-called core prices—which exclude volatile food and energy items— rose 3.3% in December over the previous three months at an annualized rate. That was was unchanged from earlier figures.

    The six-month annualized core inflation rate was 3.2% in December, also unchanged."

    That's some awkward wording there, WSJ. Maybe that's how they always do
    it but still.

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)