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  • Re: CNN's early take on the electoral map

    From mINE109@21:1/5 to ScottW on Mon Jan 8 11:11:43 2024
    On 1/7/24 11:54 PM, ScottW wrote:
    https://twitter.com/jhughes1776/status/1743771264362193156

    So much for Stephen's reputable polls.

    A junk poll doesn't negate reputable ones.

    From twitter (Dec 24):

    11 polls w/Biden lead now (via 538):
    47-45 NYT/Siena (LVs)
    49-48 Monmouth
    49-48 NPR/Marist
    47-46 Quinnipiac
    48-47 Echelon
    42-41 YouGov/Economist 12/2
    44-42 YouGov/Economist 11/25
    39-37 YouGov
    40-36 and 37-35 Leger
    Biden +4 - Reuters battleground states 10/

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From mINE109@21:1/5 to ScottW on Mon Jan 8 13:42:05 2024
    On 1/8/24 12:31 PM, ScottW wrote:
    On Monday, January 8, 2024 at 9:11:49 AM UTC-8, mINE109 wrote:
    On 1/7/24 11:54 PM, ScottW wrote:
    https://twitter.com/jhughes1776/status/1743771264362193156

    So much for Stephen's reputable polls.
    A junk poll doesn't negate reputable ones.

    From twitter (Dec 24):

    11 polls w/Biden lead now (via 538):
    47-45 NYT/Siena (LVs)
    49-48 Monmouth
    49-48 NPR/Marist
    47-46 Quinnipiac
    48-47 Echelon
    42-41 YouGov/Economist 12/2
    44-42 YouGov/Economist 11/25
    39-37 YouGov
    40-36 and 37-35 Leger
    Biden +4 - Reuters battleground states 10/

    Is there a difference between a national poll and an electoral prediction?

    The CNN is not a prediction so that's beside the point.

    Since I see you need help, think of it like black vs white key.

    The inapt comparison is yours since you brought up a black key to
    contradict my white.

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From mINE109@21:1/5 to Art Sackman on Tue Jan 9 10:26:44 2024
    On 1/8/24 2:44 PM, Art Sackman wrote:
    On Monday, January 8, 2024 at 12:11:49 PM UTC-5, mINE109 wrote:
    On 1/7/24 11:54 PM, ScottW wrote:
    https://twitter.com/jhughes1776/status/1743771264362193156

    So much for Stephen's reputable polls.
    A junk poll doesn't negate reputable ones.

    From twitter (Dec 24):

    11 polls w/Biden lead now (via 538):
    47-45 NYT/Siena (LVs)
    49-48 Monmouth
    49-48 NPR/Marist
    47-46 Quinnipiac
    48-47 Echelon
    42-41 YouGov/Economist 12/2
    44-42 YouGov/Economist 11/25
    39-37 YouGov
    40-36 and 37-35 Leger
    Biden +4 - Reuters battleground states 10/


    https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-biden


    The thirteen most recent polls:

    Trump 8
    Biden 3 NYT< Quinnipiac, PBS/NPR, all ultra liberal viewpoints
    Tie 2

    Congratulations! You are arguing by counter-example. Well done!

    However, polls aren't wins like in sports. Looking at 538, after
    eliminating the obvious outliers you end up with just a point or two
    difference either way.

    And, of course, there are no "ultra liberal viewpoint" polls. NYT? The
    headline editors are clearly in the bag for Trump. NPR? "Nice polite Republicans" with a business and institutional bias.

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