On 3/10/2021 6:42 AM, Rudeney wrote:
On 3/9/2021 3:58 PM, Patty Winter wrote:
At least, that's Bob Chapek's current thinking:
https://twitter.com/DisneyParksNews/status/1369358327562477568/photo/1
I wonder whether they'll adjust that scheduled based on when OC
enters the Orange tier, which would allow 25% capacity vs. only 15%
in the Red tier. 15% seems like a skimpy amount to make any money on.
But if OC moves into Red soon, they could progress to Orange by early
April, assuming good news on vaccinations and infections.
If they follow the science, things should open at least that soon, but
it could be accelerated even more. Despite Fauci's claims that we must
have at least 80% population (a.k.a. herd) immunity, most scientists
consider it to be more like 60%. Even so, that's not a line-in-the-dirt number because as the immune population increases, the daily infection
curve takes a steep dive. Even at 30% immunity the curve will have a
strong downward trend.
At this point, we have nearly 18% of the population at least one dose of vaccine. 10% of the population has been confirmed as being infected by COVID-19. This puts total immunity somewhere around 28%, except that
some of the 10% who had COVID-19 are also included in the number
vaccinated, so let's say conservatively we have 20% confirmed immunity
at this point. Based on statistical analysis of antibody testing
results, scientists believe that there are at least twice as many people
with antibodies and no positive test as have had test-confirmed
COVID-19. That means that instead of 10% having immunity through
infection, it's more like 30%. Add in the nearly 18% vaccinated,
account for an overlap, and were probably in the 40% immunity range.
That puts us 2/3 of the way to "population immunity". You can see this
in the graphs today. Better yet, the curve isn't a one-to-one drop with increases in immunity. Because one actively infected person usually
passes the virus to more than one other person, each infection that we prevent drops the infection curve by more than one other person. It
becomes a logarithmic function, which means a very steep downward curve.
This is the good news, which you probably won't hear about "in the news" because giving people hope doesn't sell - drama sells.
Rodney this will be interesting to watch because of a wrinkle with the
mRNA "vaccines". (I suspect you already know everything I'm about to say.)
Herd immunity works because the virus "runs out of places to land",
which gradually attenuates the spread. It's like the experiment with the
room full of mousetraps and ping-pong balls. As people develop immunity,
the virus will effectively bounce off them and fall to the floor.
Eventually the virus stops circulating because there aren't enough
carriers to keep it moving.
But these mRNA vaccines don't work that way - the recipients can still
contract the virus. And they can carry it and spread it. What they won't
do - allegedly - is develop symptoms if they contract the virus.
If this is actually what happens, then the mRNA shots will not
contribute to lessening the geometric rate of spread, or they'll
contribute significantly less. They'll just reduce the fraction of hospitalizations and severe cases. And hence the calls to "keep wearing
your mask even after the shot."
The other shots I'm aware of - J&J, AstraZeneca, Medicago/GSK - aren't mRNA-based, which suggest they'd contribute to herd immunity in the more traditional way. But the biggest contributor figures to be people who
contract asymptomatic cases of Covid, hence developing antibodies and
T-cells, often without even knowing they had it. In other words,
immunity the old-fashioned way.
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