• A Good Article on the power (energy) situation.

    From Gordon@21:1/5 to All on Thu Sep 5 02:21:50 2024
    https://newzealandenergy.substack.com/p/field-of-dreams

    Points out that NZ needs to build some more cheap power supplies so that industry will come. Paid for by the dividends to the Government from the
    power generators.

    Also points out that back in the 70's the politicians new that more power
    would encourage industry.

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  • From Crash@21:1/5 to Gordon on Thu Sep 5 16:14:23 2024
    On 5 Sep 2024 02:21:50 GMT, Gordon <[email protected]> wrote:

    https://newzealandenergy.substack.com/p/field-of-dreams

    Points out that NZ needs to build some more cheap power supplies so that >industry will come. Paid for by the dividends to the Government from the >power generators.

    I agree that something needs to be done, but the article does not
    quantify how much the dividends received by the Government are. A
    quick couple of Google searches also failed to reveal this (reported
    numbers are totals therefore include dividends paid to minority
    shareholders). I have no doubt that the cost of new generation would
    be considerably more that the Government receives in dividends from
    the gentailers.

    I would also remind readers that when the Government sold minority shareholdings to private investors, the proceeds were used to retire
    Government debt which had risen as the result of earthquake costs that
    so affected Christchurch. So while the taxpayer funded generation
    assets, they also retain majority ownership of those assets and
    received payment for the minority shareholdings sold.


    Also points out that back in the 70's the politicians new that more power >would encourage industry.

    Not really. There was considerable effort to get electricity as a
    widely available commodity going back to the early 1900s. Muldoon's
    'Think Big' projects simply resumed this push, which stalled in the
    early 1960s when Manapouri stage 1 generation was completed.


    --
    Crash McBash

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  • From Rich80105@21:1/5 to All on Thu Sep 5 17:18:14 2024
    On Thu, 05 Sep 2024 16:14:23 +1200, Crash <[email protected]d>
    wrote:

    On 5 Sep 2024 02:21:50 GMT, Gordon <[email protected]> wrote:

    https://newzealandenergy.substack.com/p/field-of-dreams

    Points out that NZ needs to build some more cheap power supplies so that >>industry will come. Paid for by the dividends to the Government from the >>power generators.

    I agree that something needs to be done, but the article does not
    quantify how much the dividends received by the Government are. A
    quick couple of Google searches also failed to reveal this (reported
    numbers are totals therefore include dividends paid to minority >shareholders). I have no doubt that the cost of new generation would
    be considerably more that the Government receives in dividends from
    the gentailers.

    I would also remind readers that when the Government sold minority >shareholdings to private investors, the proceeds were used to retire >Government debt which had risen as the result of earthquake costs that
    so affected Christchurch. So while the taxpayer funded generation
    assets, they also retain majority ownership of those assets and
    received payment for the minority shareholdings sold.


    Also points out that back in the 70's the politicians new that more power >>would encourage industry.

    Not really. There was considerable effort to get electricity as a
    widely available commodity going back to the early 1900s. Muldoon's
    'Think Big' projects simply resumed this push, which stalled in the
    early 1960s when Manapouri stage 1 generation was completed.

    The article says:
    "The root cause is that our current market-based model ensures that we
    will remain a country of energy scarcity.

    We have privatized and fragmented the energy sector and now have the
    inverse vision to Ray and his field of dreams. We have the �if they
    come, we will build it� approach to energy infrastructure. We need
    someone to buy the electricity or the gas before we will invest the
    capital necessary to exploit these energy sources. This can only
    result in continued scarcity.

    The boards and CEO�s of our electricity generators have a fiduciary
    duty to provide a return to shareholders. They are competing with each
    other. No single entity has the capacity to radically overbuild and
    create energy abundance, that would ultimately result in very low
    energy prices. What we see instead is the boards of each of these
    companies all nervously biting their nails and looking across the
    fence to see what the competition is doing."

    and later: "Each one of these things will have a material impact on
    the other generators in the market. Hydro, geo-thermal and coal
    generators for example will also be looking for curtailment mechanisms
    which pay them to keep their plants online and available, but not
    generating, while up to 1GW of offshore wind generation erratically
    comes in and out of the grid.

    So, they watch, and they wait, only investing in token incremental
    additional generation such as 100MW of solar, which has a capacity
    factor of 15%, so it only produces 15MW on average with a relatively predictable generation profile. As such there is no risk that it will de-stabilize the market. It looks good on the ESG report but does
    little to address the scarcity in the market."
    _____________

    The problem is that the incentives for the companies are to keep
    prices for power high - and to do that they have "gone slow" on
    building more generation. They are not erquired to take power from
    small generators, so while some small generators (large homes or small businesses) do get some money for excess electricity available to the
    grid, it is at rates low enough not to be a big incentive.

    In other countries, it is worthwhile for schools and other enterprises
    with large roofs to install solar - and during school holidays their
    own usage would be very low. Here it seems it does not make economic
    sense - the cartel is able to keep payments to other generators low
    enough so that they do not have to be competitive.

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    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Crash@21:1/5 to All on Thu Sep 5 20:46:42 2024
    On Thu, 05 Sep 2024 17:18:14 +1200, Rich80105 <[email protected]>
    wrote:

    On Thu, 05 Sep 2024 16:14:23 +1200, Crash <[email protected]d>
    wrote:

    On 5 Sep 2024 02:21:50 GMT, Gordon <[email protected]> wrote:

    https://newzealandenergy.substack.com/p/field-of-dreams

    Points out that NZ needs to build some more cheap power supplies so that >>>industry will come. Paid for by the dividends to the Government from the >>>power generators.

    I agree that something needs to be done, but the article does not
    quantify how much the dividends received by the Government are. A
    quick couple of Google searches also failed to reveal this (reported >>numbers are totals therefore include dividends paid to minority >>shareholders). I have no doubt that the cost of new generation would
    be considerably more that the Government receives in dividends from
    the gentailers.

    I would also remind readers that when the Government sold minority >>shareholdings to private investors, the proceeds were used to retire >>Government debt which had risen as the result of earthquake costs that
    so affected Christchurch. So while the taxpayer funded generation
    assets, they also retain majority ownership of those assets and
    received payment for the minority shareholdings sold.


    Also points out that back in the 70's the politicians new that more power >>>would encourage industry.

    Not really. There was considerable effort to get electricity as a
    widely available commodity going back to the early 1900s. Muldoon's
    'Think Big' projects simply resumed this push, which stalled in the
    early 1960s when Manapouri stage 1 generation was completed.

    The article says:
    "The root cause is that our current market-based model ensures that we
    will remain a country of energy scarcity.

    Emotive and baseless conjecture. We currently have an electricity
    shortage because of low hydro lake levels. Name any industry that
    will build production capacity expansion based on a short-term issue.

    We have privatized and fragmented the energy sector and now have the
    inverse vision to Ray and his field of dreams. We have the �if they
    come, we will build it� approach to energy infrastructure. We need
    someone to buy the electricity or the gas before we will invest the
    capital necessary to exploit these energy sources. This can only
    result in continued scarcity.

    'Ray and his field of dreams' is an emotive irrelevancy. Anyone will
    build future additional production capacity if they see a likely
    profitable market, based either on expanded demand or competitive
    advantage (or both).

    The boards and CEO�s of our electricity generators have a fiduciary
    duty to provide a return to shareholders. They are competing with each
    other. No single entity has the capacity to radically overbuild and
    create energy abundance, that would ultimately result in very low
    energy prices. What we see instead is the boards of each of these
    companies all nervously biting their nails and looking across the
    fence to see what the competition is doing."

    They are most likely seeing that the current situation will most
    likely not produce a return on increased generation - see above about
    the temporary nature and causes of electricity shortage.

    and later: "Each one of these things will have a material impact on
    the other generators in the market. Hydro, geo-thermal and coal
    generators for example will also be looking for curtailment mechanisms
    which pay them to keep their plants online and available, but not
    generating, while up to 1GW of offshore wind generation erratically
    comes in and out of the grid.

    So, they watch, and they wait, only investing in token incremental
    additional generation such as 100MW of solar, which has a capacity
    factor of 15%, so it only produces 15MW on average with a relatively >predictable generation profile. As such there is no risk that it will >de-stabilize the market. It looks good on the ESG report but does
    little to address the scarcity in the market."
    _____________

    The problem is that the incentives for the companies are to keep
    prices for power high - and to do that they have "gone slow" on
    building more generation. They are not erquired to take power from
    small generators, so while some small generators (large homes or small >businesses) do get some money for excess electricity available to the
    grid, it is at rates low enough not to be a big incentive.

    In other countries, it is worthwhile for schools and other enterprises
    with large roofs to install solar - and during school holidays their
    own usage would be very low. Here it seems it does not make economic
    sense - the cartel is able to keep payments to other generators low
    enough so that they do not have to be competitive.

    Another continuation of a diatribe born of political bias. If you
    were correct then a Labour Government would have long since fixed
    this. The last Labour Government was not encumbered by a coalition
    partner for 3 years and did nothing because the problem about which
    you are complaining is caused by short-term issues.

    Consider the long-threatened closure of the Tiwai Point smelter. If
    this happened, and if Transpower (a Government-owned monopoly) were to
    build the infrastructure to make electricity generated by Manapouri
    available to all of NZ then there would be no problem.

    This all adds up to no sustainable business case to justify
    large-scale expansion of electricity generation capacity.

    I predict you will ignore this, just as you ignore anything that does
    not meet your political bias against the current Government.


    --
    Crash McBash

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