• The price of power going up

    From Gordon@21:1/5 to All on Wed Aug 7 03:21:05 2024
    https://www.stuff.co.nz/politics/350370185/power-prices-hit-another-factory-pain-set-continue

    This is in Stuff so it soon going to main stream in the public's mind.

    The ideas/points in this article are what has been circulating in this ng
    and elsewhere.

    I am sure that the tax adjustments will not pay for the upcoming increase.

    Some snippets from the article.

    "The rising price of wholesale electricity is likely to hit households soon, according to industry experts."

    "John Harbord, chairperson of the Major Electricity Users Group, said most manufacturing and logistics companies were struggling.

    He said those companies were having to compete with nations such as Australia,
    where the wholesale electricity price was below $100.

    Energy Minister Simeon Brown said low rainfall and low gas reserves had
    driven up the cost of electricity.

    “The tight gas supply is a direct result of the last government’s reckless energy policies. They banned oil and gas exploration,” he said.

    Several past Governments (both sides) have taken their eye off the ball.

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From David Goodwin@21:1/5 to All on Wed Aug 7 23:43:27 2024
    In article <[email protected]>, [email protected]
    says...

    https://www.stuff.co.nz/politics/350370185/power-prices-hit-another-factory-pain-set-continue

    This is in Stuff so it soon going to main stream in the public's mind.

    The ideas/points in this article are what has been circulating in this ng
    and elsewhere.

    I am sure that the tax adjustments will not pay for the upcoming increase.

    Some snippets from the article.

    "The rising price of wholesale electricity is likely to hit households soon, according to industry experts."

    "John Harbord, chairperson of the Major Electricity Users Group, said most manufacturing and logistics companies were struggling.

    He said those companies were having to compete with nations such as Australia,
    where the wholesale electricity price was below $100.

    Energy Minister Simeon Brown said low rainfall and low gas reserves had driven up the cost of electricity.

    ?The tight gas supply is a direct result of the last government?s reckless energy policies. They banned oil and gas exploration,? he said.

    This comment from Mr. Brown is far from correct. Even had a massive gas
    deposit been found the day the previous government was sworn in it would
    likely still be a few years away from production, so it is too soon for
    the exploration ban to have had any effect on gas supply negative or
    otherwise.

    And there is no guarantee there is even any further gas to be discovered
    - for all we know had oil & gas exploration not been banned we'd still
    be in the exact same situation we are now. As a result, allowing further exploration isn't a solution to the problem as such.

    If we're very lucky we might find more, but we really shouldn't be
    basing our future plans on something that may very well never happen.

    Several past Governments (both sides) have taken their eye off the ball.

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Rich80105@21:1/5 to [email protected] on Thu Aug 8 08:07:35 2024
    On Wed, 7 Aug 2024 23:43:27 +1200, David Goodwin
    <[email protected]> wrote:

    In article <[email protected]>, [email protected]
    says...

    https://www.stuff.co.nz/politics/350370185/power-prices-hit-another-factory-pain-set-continue

    This is in Stuff so it soon going to main stream in the public's mind.

    The ideas/points in this article are what has been circulating in this ng
    and elsewhere.

    I am sure that the tax adjustments will not pay for the upcoming increase. >>
    Some snippets from the article.

    "The rising price of wholesale electricity is likely to hit households soon, >> according to industry experts."

    "John Harbord, chairperson of the Major Electricity Users Group, said most >> manufacturing and logistics companies were struggling.

    He said those companies were having to compete with nations such as Australia,
    where the wholesale electricity price was below $100.

    Energy Minister Simeon Brown said low rainfall and low gas reserves had
    driven up the cost of electricity.

    ?The tight gas supply is a direct result of the last government?s reckless >> energy policies. They banned oil and gas exploration,? he said.

    This comment from Mr. Brown is far from correct. Even had a massive gas >deposit been found the day the previous government was sworn in it would >likely still be a few years away from production, so it is too soon for
    the exploration ban to have had any effect on gas supply negative or >otherwise.

    And there is no guarantee there is even any further gas to be discovered
    - for all we know had oil & gas exploration not been banned we'd still
    be in the exact same situation we are now. As a result, allowing further >exploration isn't a solution to the problem as such.

    If we're very lucky we might find more, but we really shouldn't be
    basing our future plans on something that may very well never happen.

    Several past Governments (both sides) have taken their eye off the ball.


    The past few explorations by companies were not successful - in one
    case they left the government having to spend a lot of money to clean
    up to avoid a danger to shipping. It was a National-led government
    that decided that the tenders for drilling were not sufficient to
    cover costs; and during most of the last Labour Governments nobody was
    wanting to put in tenders anyway.

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Willy Nilly@21:1/5 to David Goodwin on Wed Aug 7 21:58:43 2024
    On Wed, 7 Aug 2024, David Goodwin <[email protected]> wrote:
    This comment from Mr. Brown is far from correct. Even had a massive gas >deposit been found the day the previous government was sworn in it would >likely still be a few years away from production, so it is too soon for
    the exploration ban to have had any effect on gas supply negative or >otherwise.

    Nonsense, 7 years is far in excess of time req to bring to production.

    And there is no guarantee there is even any further gas to be discovered
    - for all we know had oil & gas exploration not been banned we'd still
    be in the exact same situation we are now. As a result, allowing further >exploration isn't a solution to the problem as such.

    More nonsense from you. More gas & oil are absolutely guaranteed, the
    question is simply how easy they are to access. 98% of NZ has not
    been surveyed for gas & oil in terms of on-site evaluation. Your
    idiocy goes further -- in terms of pure logic, you claim that in the
    absence of guaranteed results, one shouldn't even explore. But
    exploration is how one finds the results! Therefore, by your moronic
    "logic", navel-gazing whilst sitting in our mud huts is the only way
    to go. You lefties are the opposite of civilisation.

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From David Goodwin@21:1/5 to All on Thu Aug 8 10:37:00 2024
    In article <[email protected]>, [email protected] says...

    On Wed, 7 Aug 2024, David Goodwin <[email protected]> wrote:
    This comment from Mr. Brown is far from correct. Even had a massive gas >deposit been found the day the previous government was sworn in it would >likely still be a few years away from production, so it is too soon for
    the exploration ban to have had any effect on gas supply negative or >otherwise.

    Nonsense, 7 years is far in excess of time req to bring to production.

    Got any reputable sources? A quick search suggests around 10 years from
    permit to production for off-shore gas.

    And there is no guarantee there is even any further gas to be discovered
    - for all we know had oil & gas exploration not been banned we'd still
    be in the exact same situation we are now. As a result, allowing further >exploration isn't a solution to the problem as such.

    More nonsense from you. More gas & oil are absolutely guaranteed, the question is simply how easy they are to access. 98% of NZ has not
    been surveyed for gas & oil in terms of on-site evaluation.

    As it has not been evaluated we don't *know* there is gas there. Maybe
    there is, maybe there isn't. There is a finite supply of the stuff in
    the ground so all economically exploitable deposits *will* be consumed
    sooner or later.

    Your
    idiocy goes further -- in terms of pure logic, you claim that in the
    absence of guaranteed results, one shouldn't even explore.

    I never said that. I said we shouldn't count on finding more because
    finding more is not guaranteed. What *is* guaranteed is that someday the
    gas will run out and an alternative will be required.

    But
    exploration is how one finds the results!

    And for all we know the result may be no more (or not enough) gas. We
    need an alternative in place *before* our gas supplies run out. Given
    supplies are already starting to run low should we really wait until
    we've proven there is no more gas to be found before we deploy an
    alternative?

    Therefore, by your moronic
    "logic", navel-gazing whilst sitting in our mud huts is the only way
    to go. You lefties are the opposite of civilisation.

    Your logic would appear to have us run on gas only until the the rolling blackouts start due to shortages and only then start considering what
    should replace it. You appear to be opposed to planning ahead for events
    that are certain to occur until or you believe that we have an
    inexhaustible supply of gas that somehow hasn't been discovered despite
    decades of exploration.

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Rich80105@21:1/5 to Willy Nilly on Thu Aug 8 14:08:36 2024
    On Wed, 07 Aug 2024 21:58:43 GMT, [email protected] (Willy Nilly) wrote:

    On Wed, 7 Aug 2024, David Goodwin <[email protected]> wrote:
    This comment from Mr. Brown is far from correct. Even had a massive gas >>deposit been found the day the previous government was sworn in it would >>likely still be a few years away from production, so it is too soon for
    the exploration ban to have had any effect on gas supply negative or >>otherwise.

    Nonsense, 7 years is far in excess of time req to bring to production.
    Before bringing it to production there is the exploration step - if
    commercial companies are not prepared to pay enough for a permit to
    cover clean-up expenses if they walk away, why should the government
    take that risk?

    And there is no guarantee there is even any further gas to be discovered
    - for all we know had oil & gas exploration not been banned we'd still
    be in the exact same situation we are now. As a result, allowing further >>exploration isn't a solution to the problem as such.

    More nonsense from you. More gas & oil are absolutely guaranteed, the >question is simply how easy they are to access. 98% of NZ has not
    been surveyed for gas & oil in terms of on-site evaluation. Your
    idiocy goes further -- in terms of pure logic, you claim that in the
    absence of guaranteed results, one shouldn't even explore. But
    exploration is how one finds the results! Therefore, by your moronic >"logic", navel-gazing whilst sitting in our mud huts is the only way
    to go. You lefties are the opposite of civilisation.

    Oil and gas need to be in sufficient quantity to be commercially
    viable - and those involved in the industry have not been prepared to
    risk their capital to try to compete with relatively cheap fuel from
    elsewhere around the world. Who do you want to pay to do some more
    exploring, Willy Nilly?

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Willy Nilly@21:1/5 to David Goodwin on Thu Aug 8 02:40:30 2024
    On Thu, 8 Aug 2024, David Goodwin <[email protected]> wrote:
    In article <[email protected]>, [email protected] says...
    7 years is far in excess of time req to bring to production.

    Got any reputable sources? A quick search suggests around 10 years from >permit to production for off-shore gas.

    We were not talking about off-shore, plenty of land-based to explore.

    More gas & oil are absolutely guaranteed, the
    question is simply how easy they are to access. 98% of NZ has not
    been surveyed for gas & oil in terms of on-site evaluation.

    As it has not been evaluated we don't *know* there is gas there.

    You are not numerate. "Know" means we are assured of it up to a
    certain error bounds called "delta". Delta can be very small but is
    never zero. Your pedantic haggling about a 100.000000% certain
    "knowledge" is pure rhetoric, devoid of useful meaning. You are
    clownishly pretending knowledge.

    There is a finite supply of the stuff in
    the ground so all economically exploitable deposits *will* be consumed
    sooner or later.

    It depends how much there is, and deep oil deposits, when exploited,
    often partly replenish from seepage from lower depths. You are a
    "peak oil" cultist, unrehabilitated from decades of proclaiming that
    oil production will fall *this year* for sure, always wrong, never
    dissuaded.

    And for all we know the result may be no more (or not enough) gas. We
    need an alternative in place *before* our gas supplies run out. Given >supplies are already starting to run low should we really wait until
    we've proven there is no more gas to be found before we deploy an >alternative?

    So you are pro-nuclear, right? What, you're not?!? Well then, you are
    just a rhetorician, pretending logic but only actually interested in
    finding pathways to a pre-determined outcome. Pure leftist preening.


    Your logic would appear to have us run on gas only until the the rolling >blackouts start due to shortages and only then start considering what
    should replace it. You appear to be opposed to planning ahead for events
    that are certain to occur until or you believe that we have an
    inexhaustible supply of gas that somehow hasn't been discovered despite >decades of exploration.

    Your representations of what I stand for are willfully false. I
    oppose bad "solutions" which don't work, specifically wind turbines.
    I am all for solutions which do work, like hydro and nuclear. My
    praise of coal & gas is simply to highlight that these generators, so
    despised by you greenie nitwits, are far preferable to your golden
    idols of wind and solar. But hydro is excellent, and nuclear is the
    ticket to a cheap-energy future -- but for the mindless opposition of green-themed noobs like you. Anyways, until we return to a
    meritocracy, nuclear isn't realistic as DEI cannot build such complex technology. China can.

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Rich80105@21:1/5 to Willy Nilly on Thu Aug 8 15:56:21 2024
    On Thu, 08 Aug 2024 02:40:30 GMT, [email protected] (Willy Nilly) wrote:

    On Thu, 8 Aug 2024, David Goodwin <[email protected]> wrote:
    In article <[email protected]>, [email protected] says...
    7 years is far in excess of time req to bring to production.

    Got any reputable sources? A quick search suggests around 10 years from >>permit to production for off-shore gas.

    We were not talking about off-shore, plenty of land-based to explore.

    According to a radio report earlier today, the organisation that uses
    a lot of our current gas reserves has been actively exploring for gas
    under land for some years with no success


    More gas & oil are absolutely guaranteed, the
    question is simply how easy they are to access. 98% of NZ has not
    been surveyed for gas & oil in terms of on-site evaluation.

    As it has not been evaluated we don't *know* there is gas there.

    You are not numerate. "Know" means we are assured of it up to a
    certain error bounds called "delta". Delta can be very small but is
    never zero. Your pedantic haggling about a 100.000000% certain
    "knowledge" is pure rhetoric, devoid of useful meaning. You are
    clownishly pretending knowledge.
    Of the 98% that has not been explored, what percentage is unlikely to
    be productive from known other factors?

    There is a finite supply of the stuff in
    the ground so all economically exploitable deposits *will* be consumed >>sooner or later.

    It depends how much there is, and deep oil deposits, when exploited,
    often partly replenish from seepage from lower depths. You are a
    "peak oil" cultist, unrehabilitated from decades of proclaiming that
    oil production will fall *this year* for sure, always wrong, never
    dissuaded.

    Those predictions quite a lot of years ago were proved wrong due to
    shale oil - but now the middle east oil-producing countries are
    preparing for when they are no longer able to earn money from oil
    exports - perhaps they are part of your cult, Willy Nilly . . .

    And for all we know the result may be no more (or not enough) gas. We
    need an alternative in place *before* our gas supplies run out. Given >>supplies are already starting to run low should we really wait until
    we've proven there is no more gas to be found before we deploy an >>alternative?

    So you are pro-nuclear, right? What, you're not?!? Well then, you are
    just a rhetorician, pretending logic but only actually interested in
    finding pathways to a pre-determined outcome. Pure leftist preening.
    So is Lake Onslow starting to look good for you, Willy Nilly?

    Your logic would appear to have us run on gas only until the the rolling >>blackouts start due to shortages and only then start considering what >>should replace it. You appear to be opposed to planning ahead for events >>that are certain to occur until or you believe that we have an >>inexhaustible supply of gas that somehow hasn't been discovered despite >>decades of exploration.

    Your representations of what I stand for are willfully false. I
    oppose bad "solutions" which don't work, specifically wind turbines.
    Why do you believe wind turbines do not work, Wlly Nilly? Without wind
    power we would have much greater problems with maintaining supply -
    currently wind represents around 10% of current generation.

    I am all for solutions which do work, like hydro and nuclear. My
    praise of coal & gas is simply to highlight that these generators, so >despised by you greenie nitwits, are far preferable to your golden
    idols of wind and solar. But hydro is excellent, and nuclear is the
    ticket to a cheap-energy future -- but for the mindless opposition of >green-themed noobs like you. Anyways, until we return to a
    meritocracy, nuclear isn't realistic as DEI cannot build such complex >technology. China can.

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From David Goodwin@21:1/5 to All on Thu Aug 8 20:30:58 2024
    In article <[email protected]>, [email protected] says...

    On Thu, 8 Aug 2024, David Goodwin <[email protected]> wrote:
    In article <[email protected]>, [email protected] says...
    7 years is far in excess of time req to bring to production.

    Got any reputable sources? A quick search suggests around 10 years from >permit to production for off-shore gas.

    We were not talking about off-shore, plenty of land-based to explore.

    If I'm not mistaken, it was only off-shore exploration that was banned.
    This would mean we are talking *specifically* about off-shore
    exploration.

    More gas & oil are absolutely guaranteed, the
    question is simply how easy they are to access. 98% of NZ has not
    been surveyed for gas & oil in terms of on-site evaluation.

    As it has not been evaluated we don't *know* there is gas there.

    You are not numerate. "Know" means we are assured of it up to a
    certain error bounds called "delta". Delta can be very small but is
    never zero. Your pedantic haggling about a 100.000000% certain
    "knowledge" is pure rhetoric, devoid of useful meaning. You are
    clownishly pretending knowledge.

    Companies have been exploring for oil and gas here for over half a
    century. How many decades has it been since the last major discovery?

    If they're searching and not finding, perhaps there is little to find.

    Are we planning for the potential outcome of not finding enough in time?
    I guess building an LNG terminal is a plan, but not a cheap one.

    There is a finite supply of the stuff in
    the ground so all economically exploitable deposits *will* be consumed >sooner or later.

    It depends how much there is, and deep oil deposits, when exploited,
    often partly replenish from seepage from lower depths. You are a
    "peak oil" cultist, unrehabilitated from decades of proclaiming that
    oil production will fall *this year* for sure, always wrong, never
    dissuaded.

    And for all we know the result may be no more (or not enough) gas. We
    need an alternative in place *before* our gas supplies run out. Given >supplies are already starting to run low should we really wait until
    we've proven there is no more gas to be found before we deploy an >alternative?

    So you are pro-nuclear, right? What, you're not?!? Well then, you are
    just a rhetorician, pretending logic but only actually interested in
    finding pathways to a pre-determined outcome. Pure leftist preening.

    I have no problem with nuclear power in general. If it were economic to
    build here then I'd have no problem living next to it. There is no
    reason it can't be done safely and cleanly given proper regulation and application of technology.

    Your logic would appear to have us run on gas only until the the rolling >blackouts start due to shortages and only then start considering what >should replace it. You appear to be opposed to planning ahead for events >that are certain to occur until or you believe that we have an >inexhaustible supply of gas that somehow hasn't been discovered despite >decades of exploration.

    Your representations of what I stand for are willfully false. I
    oppose bad "solutions" which don't work, specifically wind turbines.

    You often make this claim, but the most I've ever got from you when
    asked to back it up was various unfounded claims about grid-size
    batteries and accusations of being a troll.

    I am all for solutions which do work, like hydro and nuclear. My
    praise of coal & gas is simply to highlight that these generators, so despised by you greenie nitwits, are far preferable to your golden
    idols of wind and solar. But hydro is excellent, and nuclear is the
    ticket to a cheap-energy future -- but for the mindless opposition of green-themed noobs like you. Anyways, until we return to a
    meritocracy, nuclear isn't realistic as DEI cannot build such complex technology. China can.


    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Rich80105@21:1/5 to [email protected] on Thu Aug 8 20:59:25 2024
    On Thu, 8 Aug 2024 20:30:58 +1200, David Goodwin
    <[email protected]> wrote:

    In article <[email protected]>, [email protected] says...

    On Thu, 8 Aug 2024, David Goodwin <[email protected]> wrote:
    In article <[email protected]>, [email protected] says...
    7 years is far in excess of time req to bring to production.

    Got any reputable sources? A quick search suggests around 10 years from
    permit to production for off-shore gas.

    We were not talking about off-shore, plenty of land-based to explore.

    If I'm not mistaken, it was only off-shore exploration that was banned.
    This would mean we are talking *specifically* about off-shore
    exploration.

    You are not mistaken - there has been a lot of money spent on
    exploration on land in recent times - without success (or at least
    without commercial quantities being found).

    More gas & oil are absolutely guaranteed, the
    question is simply how easy they are to access. 98% of NZ has not
    been surveyed for gas & oil in terms of on-site evaluation.

    As it has not been evaluated we don't *know* there is gas there.

    You are not numerate. "Know" means we are assured of it up to a
    certain error bounds called "delta". Delta can be very small but is
    never zero. Your pedantic haggling about a 100.000000% certain
    "knowledge" is pure rhetoric, devoid of useful meaning. You are
    clownishly pretending knowledge.

    Companies have been exploring for oil and gas here for over half a
    century. How many decades has it been since the last major discovery?

    If they're searching and not finding, perhaps there is little to find. Exactly, but there is opportunity for more wind power and polar power
    - often in the same places. Some have had resource consents for years
    with nothing started - we go back to the priority being the interests
    of shareholders . . .)


    Are we planning for the potential outcome of not finding enough in time?
    I guess building an LNG terminal is a plan, but not a cheap one.

    There is a finite supply of the stuff in
    the ground so all economically exploitable deposits *will* be consumed
    sooner or later.

    It depends how much there is, and deep oil deposits, when exploited,
    often partly replenish from seepage from lower depths. You are a
    "peak oil" cultist, unrehabilitated from decades of proclaiming that
    oil production will fall *this year* for sure, always wrong, never
    dissuaded.

    And for all we know the result may be no more (or not enough) gas. We
    need an alternative in place *before* our gas supplies run out. Given
    supplies are already starting to run low should we really wait until
    we've proven there is no more gas to be found before we deploy an
    alternative?

    So you are pro-nuclear, right? What, you're not?!? Well then, you are
    just a rhetorician, pretending logic but only actually interested in
    finding pathways to a pre-determined outcome. Pure leftist preening.

    I have no problem with nuclear power in general. If it were economic to
    build here then I'd have no problem living next to it. There is no
    reason it can't be done safely and cleanly given proper regulation and >application of technology.

    It would be good to get an idea of the costs of creating, and
    operating the plant - even if as expected it would be more expensive
    than current developments.

    Your logic would appear to have us run on gas only until the the rolling
    blackouts start due to shortages and only then start considering what
    should replace it. You appear to be opposed to planning ahead for events
    that are certain to occur until or you believe that we have an
    inexhaustible supply of gas that somehow hasn't been discovered despite
    decades of exploration.

    Your representations of what I stand for are willfully false. I
    oppose bad "solutions" which don't work, specifically wind turbines.

    We are already using wind turbines - show us that burning gas will
    deliver long term at lower cost . . .

    You often make this claim, but the most I've ever got from you when
    asked to back it up was various unfounded claims about grid-size
    batteries and accusations of being a troll.

    I am all for solutions which do work, like hydro and nuclear. My
    praise of coal & gas is simply to highlight that these generators, so
    despised by you greenie nitwits, are far preferable to your golden
    idols of wind and solar. But hydro is excellent, and nuclear is the
    ticket to a cheap-energy future -- but for the mindless opposition of
    green-themed noobs like you. Anyways, until we return to a
    meritocracy, nuclear isn't realistic as DEI cannot build such complex
    technology. China can.



    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)
  • From Willy Nilly@21:1/5 to [email protected] on Fri Aug 9 00:33:22 2024
    On Thu, 08 Aug 2024, Rich80105 <[email protected]> wrote:
    Why do you believe wind turbines do not work, Wlly Nilly? Without wind
    power we would have much greater problems with maintaining supply -
    currently wind represents around 10% of current generation.

    Your thickness knows no bounds, Rich. What do you think the word
    "currently" means? In the last 3 days, wind has been contributing
    just 4% to current generation, in the week before that, only 2%. Wind
    is notoriously unreliable, and must always be backed up by coal & gas generating capability. These price spikes we are currently having are
    because wind hasn't been worth squat. Nor are your brains.

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
    * Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)