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Gallup: 2024 Election Environment Favors Republicans
The Facts
* A Gallup report released this week said that nearly all measures of
the political environment for the 2024 US presidential
election favor the Republican Party over the Democratic Party.
* This comes as 1,007 US adults were polled between Sept. 3-15 about 10 indicators that either have moderate to strong links to
past presidential elections outcomes or are related to current
perceptions of the two parties.
* Those include "party identification and leaning" and which party is "better able to handle [the] most important problem," which
have been strongly connected to previous outcomes. Republicans beats Democrats in both — 48% to 45% and 46% to 41%, respectively.
* The poll further found that economic confidence, national
satisfaction, and presidential job approval are low, that most
Americans want the government to do less, and that Republicans are
seen as better able to keep America safe from global threats
and keep America prosperous.
* This comes as American University professor Dr. Allan Lichtman dubbed
the "Nostradamus" of US presidential elections, used his
"Keys to the White House" method to predict earlier this month that
Kamala Harris will defeat Donald Trump.
* As of Tuesday, ABC's FiveThirtyEight put Harris' chances of winning at 57%. According to the RealClear poll averages with "no
toss-up states," Harris would win 276 Electoral College votes to
Trump's 262 if the election were held last week.
Republican narrative
This poll confirms that Americans don't want four more years of the
disastrous Biden-Harris agenda and that the presidential election
is Trump's to lose. Republicans haven't had such an advantage in decades,
and not even the liberal media can ignore that.
Democratic narrative
Even if Gallup figures are correct, that's quite a logical jump to claim
that these numbers indicate that the election environment
favors Republicans. Several other polls put Harris ahead of Trump, and — perhaps most importantly — the average voter also expects
her to win.
Nerd narrative
There's a 56% chance that Kamala Harris will be elected US President in
2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
From
https://www.improvethenews.org/ .
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