Bloomberg
Ukraine's Surprise Incursion Into Russia Turns the Tables on Putin
...
...
The incursion by as many as 1,000 Ukrainian troops into the Kursk
region that's now in its third day caught out the Russian military.
It's the first time since World War II that another country's army has invaded Russia.
A grim-faced Putin summoned his army and security-service chiefs for
an explanation yesterday. Furious Russian military bloggers accused
top officials of staggering incompetence.
European gas prices rose amid reports of fighting near a key Russian
station on the last remaining pipeline route to Europe via Ukraine. So
far, gas continues to flow.
...
...
Ukraine has said nothing about the mission or its goals. Theories
abound, from an attempt to seize territory as a potential bargaining
chip in future negotiations with Moscow, to a diversionary tactic to
ease pressure on stretched defenses in Ukraine by drawing Russian
forces away from the frontline.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2024-08-08/ukraine-s-surprise-incursion-into-russia-turns-the-tables-on-putin
the more territory they grab, the more area they need to
defend
JAB wrote:has
Bloomberg
Ukraine's Surprise Incursion Into Russia Turns the Tables on Putin
....
....
The incursion by as many as 1,000 Ukrainian troops into the Kursk
region that's now in its third day caught out the Russian military.
It's the first time since World War II that another country's army
invaded Russia.for
A grim-faced Putin summoned his army and security-service chiefs
an explanation yesterday. Furious Russian military bloggers accusedRussian
top officials of staggering incompetence.
European gas prices rose amid reports of fighting near a key
station on the last remaining pipeline route to Europe via Ukraine.So
far, gas continues to flow.bargaining
....
....
Ukraine has said nothing about the mission or its goals. Theories
abound, from an attempt to seize territory as a potential
chip in future negotiations with Moscow, to a diversionary tacticto
ease pressure on stretched defenses in Ukraine by drawing Russian
forces away from the frontline.
On Thu, 8 Aug 2024 22:25:50 +0200, D <[email protected]> wrote:
the more territory they grab, the more area they need to
defend
I'm not sure that's their objective...hit/run weak spots so Russia has
to move troops around...might be the objective.
Interesting! Yes, bargaining chip, or perhaps a pincer maneuver?
On Thu, 8 Aug 2024 22:25:50 +0200, D <[email protected]> wrote:
Interesting! Yes, bargaining chip, or perhaps a pincer maneuver?
Even Russia's state TV propagandists can't hide their alarm at
Ukraine's remarkable cross-border incursion into Kursk. They
ridiculously claim it was engineered by Americans to help Kamala
Harris and undermine Donald Trump. https://x.com/JuliaDavisNews/status/1821934213819469893
But it seems like the world wants to torture Ukraine by giving them just >enough military help and resources to allow them to barely survive, but >definitely not enough to win the war, thus ensuring the maximum amount of >pain and death.
I am convinced, that if Nato and/or Europe decided on a blitz in the early >spring, Moscow and Putin would quickly fall and the war will be over.
bargaining chip theory
bargaining chip theory
On Sat, 10 Aug 2024 11:29:49 +0200, D <[email protected]> wrote:
But it seems like the world wants to torture Ukraine by giving them just
enough military help and resources to allow them to barely survive, but
definitely not enough to win the war, thus ensuring the maximum amount of
pain and death.
I believe the same might apply when US was in South Vietnam...not a
full scale war effort. In Ukraine, their allies may not want to upset
Russia to where the nuke card is used.
================
Towards the end of US's involvement,
"Why did the US bomb Hanoi?
Two days after the 16 December deadline had passed, the U.S. bombed
Hanoi. Senior Air Force officers James R. McCarthy and George B.
Allison stated years later that the operation had been mainly
politically driven, as a negotiation tool to "bring the point home" <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Linebacker_II>
I am convinced, that if Nato and/or Europe decided on a blitz in the early >> spring, Moscow and Putin would quickly fall and the war will be over.
A nuke card issue there...
On Fri, 9 Aug 2024 10:34:00 +0200, D <[email protected]> wrote:
bargaining chip theory
A person would have to know how well Ukraine could defend the turf,
and how Russia would respond. On Russian soil, Putin would be
cautious about how bombs are dropped/etc, especially around
cities....whereas in Ukraine, Putin don't care about destruction.
Fox News is suggesting with the "may" word:
Putin under pressure as Ukraine incursion continues, may give Kyiv
bargaining chips in peace talks: experts
https://www.foxnews.com/world/putin-pressure-ukraine-incursion-continues-may-give-kyiv-bargaining-chips-peace-talks-experts
Since permission is now granted by some western countries to use their >weapons for strikes in russia
whatever it is, it makes Russia look weak because they couldn't defend >themselves, and it forces them to put resources into other areas. Which
can cause further supply problems down the line.
History shows that countries that invade Russia may have
initial success
but ultimately suffer devastating defeat.
On Mon, 12 Aug 2024 13:40:39 -0400, Auric Hellman
<[email protected]> wrote:
History shows that countries that invade Russia may have
initial success
but ultimately suffer devastating defeat.
With the UN & NATO, a question mark...along with potential world trade repercussions.
On 8/12/2024 1:25 PM, JAB wrote:
On Fri, 9 Aug 2024 12:31:29 +0200, kyonshi <[email protected]> wrote:
whatever it is, it makes Russia look weak because they couldn't defend
themselves, and it forces them to put resources into other areas. Which
can cause further supply problems down the line.
Plus, Ukrainians get to kill/damage Russian troops/equipment.
Ukrainians essentially just "walked-into" Russia, which gives them
time to dig in. This shows Russia did not expect a Plan B by
Ukrainians.
History shows that countries that invade Russia may have initial success but ultimately suffer devastating defeat. One needs to go back to the 1600s to find the last victorious army (Polish-Lithuanian).
bargaining chip theory
pose threats to nuclear power facilities
attack civilians and civilian infrastructure
On Fri, 9 Aug 2024 10:34:00 +0200, D <[email protected]> wrote:
bargaining chip theory
"In remarks published by the Kremlin, Putin said Ukraine had invaded
Kursk in order to grab territory for negotiations but that he refused
to negotiate with people who "attack civilians and civilian
infrastructure, or pose threats to nuclear power facilities."?
https://thehill.com/policy/defense/4824231-russia-evacuates-kursk-putin-ukraine/
pose threats to nuclear power facilities
Be interesting to know more on this topic...
attack civilians and civilian infrastructure
Oh....do as I say, not as I do...
Top general says Ukrainian forces have captured almost as much Russian territory in the last week as Russia has land in Ukraine this year
Ukrainian forces launched a surprise offensive into Russia's Kursk
region last Tuesday.
They have captured around 1,000 square kilometers of Russian land
so far, Kyiv's top general said.
That figure is almost as much territory as Russia has seized in
Ukraine this year.
https://www.businessinsider.com/ukraine-captured-hundreds-square-miles-russian-territory-general-2024-8
On Mon, 12 Aug 2024, JAB wrote:
Top general says Ukrainian forces have captured almost as
much Russian territory in the last week as Russia has land
in Ukraine this year
Ukrainian forces launched a surprise offensive into
Russia's Kursk region last Tuesday.
They have captured around 1,000 square kilometers of
Russian land so far, Kyiv's top general said.
That figure is almost as much territory as Russia has
seized in Ukraine this year.
Well, who knows... maybe once Ukraine has captured as much
land as russia is currently occupying, they'll do a 1 for 1
switch?
"In remarks published by the Kremlin, Putin said Ukraine had invaded
Kursk in order to grab territory for negotiations but that he refused
to negotiate with people who "attack civilians and civilian
infrastructure, or pose threats to nuclear power facilities."?
I hope it doesn't start snowing... we all remember what happened
to the Germans and their tanks once the Russian winter set in!!!
"In remarks published by the Kremlin, Putin said Ukraine had invaded
Kursk in order to grab territory for negotiations.....
That means he doesn't negotiate with himself or other Russians.
a person who loves to discuss and develop stories
Haha, yes, Putin can be such a funny guy. Sometimes I think he lives in a >complete separate reality.
As Hagbard Celine said.... communication is only possible between equals.
communication is only possible between equals
D wrote:
On Mon, 12 Aug 2024, JAB wrote:
Top general says Ukrainian forces have captured almost as
much Russian territory in the last week as Russia has land
in Ukraine this year
Ukrainian forces launched a surprise offensive into
Russia's Kursk region last Tuesday.
They have captured around 1,000 square kilometers of
Russian land so far, Kyiv's top general said.
That figure is almost as much territory as Russia has
seized in Ukraine this year.
Well, who knows... maybe once Ukraine has captured as much
land as russia is currently occupying, they'll do a 1 for 1
switch?
I hope it doesn't start snowing... we all remember what happened
to the Germans and their tanks once the Russian winter set in!!!
As Hagbard Celine said.... communication is only possible between equals.
But this confirms me in my suspicion that russia, apart from the
front, is ridiculously ill defended. The wagner rebellion almost
reached Moscow before they persuaded them to stop. And now this. I am convinced, that if Nato and/or Europe decided on a blitz in the early
spring, Moscow and Putin would quickly fall and the war will be over.
But it seems like the world wants to torture Ukraine by giving them
just enough military help and resources to allow them to barely
survive, but definitely not enough to win the war, thus ensuring the
maximum amount of pain and death.
Not arming Ukraine properly in the beginning of the
conflict is a tragedy. This could have been reduced
to a week's fighting if Western Europe and the USA had
the stones to simply jump in throwing punches. Poor
Ukraine.
As for Russia, I agree some day we'll pull back the curtain
and find out just how much of it was smoke and mirrors. That
said, Putin gets points for being a hell of a better
strategist than just about anyone.
On 2024-08-10, D <[email protected]> wrote:
But this confirms me in my suspicion that russia, apart from the
front, is ridiculously ill defended. The wagner rebellion almost
reached Moscow before they persuaded them to stop. And now this. I am
convinced, that if Nato and/or Europe decided on a blitz in the early
spring, Moscow and Putin would quickly fall and the war will be over.
But it seems like the world wants to torture Ukraine by giving them
just enough military help and resources to allow them to barely
survive, but definitely not enough to win the war, thus ensuring the
maximum amount of pain and death.
I agree with you on all points. Not arming Ukraine properly in the
beginning of the conflict is a tragedy. This could have been reduced to
a week's fighting if Western Europe and the USA had the stones to simply
jump in throwing punches. Poor Ukraine.
As for Russia, I agree some day we'll pull back the curtain and find out
just how much of it was smoke and mirrors. That said, Putin gets points
for being a hell of a better strategist than just about anyone.
Let's hope now
On Wed, 14 Aug 2024 19:19:25 +0200, D <[email protected]> wrote:
Let's hope now
Hopefully Ukrainian's military carefully considered consequences of
their blitzkrieg on Russian soil. Either they planned for a transient duration, or long-term if needed.
Putin would not tolerate being mocked. So a land swap is most likely
moot, and most likely he will reject war reparations.
I'm not sure if the Russian propaganda machine could walk back any
statements made by Putin, et.al. I have no idea what their press said
after Soviet-Afghan War (24 December 1979 - 15 February 1989)
Press has stated that "Money generated by Russian financial assets
frozen in Europe will soon start flowing to Ukraine, giving Kyiv a
boost ..." So the interest money from some $282 billion will be used,
but could the principal be used for war reparations...unknown.
I'm not familiar with potential leverage levers that could be used to
make Putin think about consequences.
What I find so strange about that is that in many european countries,
there already are laws which make it easy to confiscate private property >without due process such as cars and boats, for traffic and fishing
crimes.
without due process such as cars and boats,...
He could of course declare tomorrow "mission accomplished"
and the public would just shrug their shoulders
He must win to remain a strong and credible leader.
what everyone is deadly afraid of is to open the legal possibility
in europe of confiscating assets from your political enemies
without due process.
On Thu, 15 Aug 2024 10:49:23 +0200, D <[email protected]> wrote:
What I find so strange about that is that in many european countries,
there already are laws which make it easy to confiscate private property
without due process such as cars and boats, for traffic and fishing
crimes.
Monkey See, Monkey Do effect...politicians do the same thing in US
States. One state creates a law or a change in an existing law, and
other states may imitate it.
He could of course declare tomorrow "mission accomplished"
and the public would just shrug their shoulders
I assume the public reaction there would be somewhat similiar to US's
public reaction, but skewed. Many US citizens don't follow the news,
and many Russians are clueless (due to false news)
He must win to remain a strong and credible leader.
If Ukraine can maintain a stalemate situation, I can't perceive of a
solution if he must "win."
what everyone is deadly afraid of is to open the legal possibility
in europe of confiscating assets from your political enemies
without due process.
Duquesne Law ReviewDuquesne Law Review
Volume 4 Number 1 Article 14
1965
The Legality of Nuremberg
Twenty years have now passed and still the controversy continues as
to whether or not the trials at Nuremberg were in compliance with inter-national law. Although the trials of the major war criminals are
now left to the historian, they are still of great importance to the formulation of present international law and are therefore of great
interest to the legal profession. Throughout the history of man war
has plagued our society. At no time prior to the adoption of the
Charter of the International Military Tribunal did the creation of war constitute a crime. The basic problem faced by Nuremberg was whether
or not the Allies could make the creation of war a crime. In order to
answer this question it must first be ascertained whether or not the
Allies had jurisdiction to prescribe a mandate of this nature and,
secondly, whether or not they had jurisdiction to enforce that
mandate.
https://core.ac.uk/download/pdf/327126335.pdf
simplest analysis
bargaining chip theory is not sound then.
bargaining chip theory
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