• Presidential Election Determined by Faithless Elector

    From Rick@21:1/5 to All on Sat Oct 19 08:01:28 2024
    With the upcoming US presidential election as close as it is, the chance
    of a 269-269 tie or a 270-268 narrow win in the Electoral College is
    certainly a mathematical possibility. This means it is possible that a faithless elector or two could actually swing the vote away from the
    intended winner through their actions. In the case of a 269-269 tie, we
    know the conventional wisdom is that Trump would probably win due to the Republicans expected to have a majority of Congressional delegations. A faithless Trump elector switching their vote to Harris in this case
    would basically hand her the election she would not have otherwise won.
    In the case of a 270-268 margin for Harris, a faithless Harris elector
    could effectively swing the election back to Trump.

    My question is about what the legal process would be if that happens.
    My understanding is that most state laws require electors to case their
    vote for the intended candidate and, in some cases, at least, require replacement of the elector with one who commits to voting for the right
    person. But some state laws merely impose fines and do not remove the
    elector or require the vote to change. More important, perhaps, the
    fact that a faithless elector even exists might not become known until
    the votes are actually read on January 6th. I'm just wondering what the
    legal recourse would be, if any, for a candidate who discovers on
    January 6th that the victory he or she expected is taken away due to a faithless elector.

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  • From Barry Gold@21:1/5 to Rick on Sat Oct 19 13:56:36 2024
    On 10/19/2024 8:01 AM, Rick wrote:
    My question is about what the legal process would be if that happens. My understanding is that most state laws require electors to case their
    vote for the intended candidate and, in some cases, at least, require replacement of the elector with one who commits to voting for the right person.  But some state laws merely impose fines and do not remove the elector or require the vote to change.  More important, perhaps, the
    fact that a faithless elector even exists might not become known until
    the votes are actually read on January 6th.  I'm just wondering what the legal recourse  would be, if any, for a candidate who discovers on
    January 6th that the victory he or she expected is taken away due to a faithless elector.

    As you noted, some states require electors to vote for the candidate on
    whose slate he/she was elected. The Supreme Court has ruled that the
    vote will be counted for that candidate regardless of the elector's
    choice. (I think that this ruling is in error and against the plain
    language of the Constitution - talk about "original intent" - but I'm
    not even a lawyer.)

    In the case of a challenge - whether of a faithless elector or a dispute
    over the election, vote count, etc. - the procedure is set by the
    Electoral Count Act of 1887.

    “Objections to individual state returns must be made in writing by at
    least one Member each of the Senate and House of Representatives. If an objection meets these requirements, the joint session recesses and the
    two houses separate and debate the question in their respective chambers
    for a maximum of two hours,” the CRS said. “The two houses then vote separately to accept or reject the objection. They then reassemble in
    joint session, and announce the results of their respective votes. An
    objection to a state’s electoral vote must be approved by BOTH houses in order for any contested votes to be excluded.”
    (emphasis mine)


    --
    I do so have a memory. It's backed up on DVD... somewhere...

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  • From Rick@21:1/5 to Barry Gold on Sat Oct 19 20:44:26 2024
    On 10/19/2024 4:56 PM, Barry Gold wrote:
    On 10/19/2024 8:01 AM, Rick wrote:
    My question is about what the legal process would be if that happens.
    My understanding is that most state laws require electors to case
    their vote for the intended candidate and, in some cases, at least,
    require replacement of the elector with one who commits to voting for
    the right person.  But some state laws merely impose fines and do not
    remove the elector or require the vote to change.  More important,
    perhaps, the fact that a faithless elector even exists might not
    become known until the votes are actually read on January 6th.  I'm
    just wondering what the legal recourse  would be, if any, for a
    candidate who discovers on January 6th that the victory he or she
    expected is taken away due to a faithless elector.

    As you noted, some states require electors to vote for the candidate on
    whose slate he/she was elected. The Supreme Court has ruled that the
    vote will be counted for that candidate regardless of the elector's
    choice. (I think that this ruling is in error and against the plain
    language of the Constitution - talk about "original intent" - but I'm
    not even a lawyer.)

    In the case of a challenge - whether of a faithless elector or a dispute
    over the election, vote count, etc. - the procedure is set by the
    Electoral Count Act of     1887.

    “Objections to individual state returns must be made in writing by at
    least one Member each of the Senate and House of Representatives. If an objection meets these requirements, the joint session recesses and the
    two houses separate and debate the question in their respective chambers
    for a maximum of two hours,” the CRS said. “The two houses then vote separately to accept or reject the objection. They then reassemble in
    joint session, and announce the results of their respective votes. An objection to a state’s electoral vote must be approved by BOTH houses in order for any contested votes to be excluded.”
    (emphasis mine)



    Unfortunately, that's a political solution which may be influenced by
    the political makeup of the two bodies. For example, if Candidate A
    wins the election but due to the actions of a faithless elector or two, Candidate B ends up with the most votes, and if Candidate B's party
    happens to hold the majority in at least one body, they may not choose
    to act. In that case, the country could end up with a president who
    would have lost the electoral vote based on the actual state results.

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  • From Jethro_uk@21:1/5 to All on Sun Oct 20 12:33:59 2024
    I used to think the UK should have a written constitution.

    I'm not so sure now ....

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  • From Barry Gold@21:1/5 to Rick on Sun Oct 20 12:38:59 2024
    On 10/19/2024 8:44 PM, Rick wrote:
    “Objections to individual state returns must be made in writing by at
    least one Member each of the Senate and House of Representatives. If
    an objection meets these requirements, the joint session recesses and
    the two houses separate and debate the question in their respective
    chambers for a maximum of two hours,” the CRS said. “The two houses
    then vote separately to accept or reject the objection. They then
    reassemble in joint session, and announce the results of their
    respective votes. An objection to a state’s electoral vote must be
    approved by BOTH houses in order for any contested votes to be excluded.” >> (emphasis mine)



    Unfortunately, that's a political solution which may be influenced by
    the political makeup of the two bodies.  For example, if Candidate A
    wins the election but due to the actions of a faithless elector or two, Candidate B ends up with the most votes, and if Candidate B's party
    happens to hold the majority in at least one body, they may not choose
    to act.  In that case, the country could end up with a president who
    would have lost the electoral vote based on the actual state results.

    Perhaps. Then again, the elector may have good reason for being
    "faithless". Like he/she woke up to the fact that the candidate is a
    would-be dictator and a felon.

    In any case, it is pretty well established that a Congress can not
    legally bind a later COngress. So if the election ends up in Congress
    because of disputed votes etc., they might follow the 1887 Electoral
    Count Act, or they might make up new rules on the spot.

    --
    I do so have a memory. It's backed up on DVD... somewhere...

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  • From micky@21:1/5 to [email protected] on Sun Oct 20 22:18:10 2024
    In misc.legal.moderated, on Sun, 20 Oct 2024 12:33:59 -0700 (PDT),
    Jethro_uk <[email protected]> wrote:

    I used to think the UK should have a written constitution.

    I'm not so sure now ....

    Lots of big problems with ours, giving the same number of senators to
    small states as big. When we got started, the ratio in population was
    iirc 8-1, now California to Wyoming is aiui 80-1. And the number of
    electors is the sum of the number of reps and senators, so again small
    states get an unfair advantage.

    But what is worse is the winner take all rule regarding state electors.
    I guess it's left over from the early feeling that each state was almost
    as separate as a separate country and if one candidate got a majority,
    ALL the electors should vote for him. When I lived in Chicago and NY,
    I guess there was plenty of nation-centered activity. Chicago had the Democratic convention and NYC has loads of stuff.

    But when I got to Maryland, I gradually noticed that we are left out of
    the presidential campaign. This has been true of other states too and
    this year all the campaigning is in 7 states. That's not right.

    If we got rid of the winner-take-all-rule, then *every* state would have
    at least one elector in play. Candidates would campaign in all 50
    states and no one's vote would be as unimportant as mine is this year.
    Both Democrats and Republicans in states that are certain to go one way
    or the other have no impact on the election.

    A good book on this is _No Democracy Lasts Forever_ by the dean of the
    law school of UC Berkeley. Based on his 1-hour radio interview, he
    seems to make what I consider one mistake. A caller asked him about gerrymandering and wouldn't that pollute the electoral votes like it
    does congressional votes, and he agreed and said it could be remedied by
    a federal law outlawing partisan gerrymandering.

    Yes it could, but I don't think electors should be elected from
    Congressional districts. The state should cast its votes and the
    percent of the vote that each candidate gets state-wide should determine
    the percent of electors he gets, unrelated to where in the state his
    votes were cast. As good and democratic as this is, Republicans in
    Congress won't vote for it because it would diminish their power. And
    nothing has shown more clearly than the last 3 years that power is what
    they want. For example, see all the nasty things Mitch McConnell said
    about trump and yet he's on their team now. And Nikki Haley and others.

    --
    I think you can tell, but just to be sure:
    I am not a lawyer.

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  • From Jethro_uk@21:1/5 to All on Mon Oct 21 06:59:22 2024
    I think for the US, "winner takes all" seems to cause similar problems to
    the UKs First Past The Post system. Where in many cases the winning
    candidate can safely ignore the majority of the electorate.

    One thing I have noticed in my life, is nature tends to solve problems
    where man can't (or won't). Electoral reform being an example. However,
    another thing I have noticed is that nature really doesn't care how it
    fixes things. Something victims of extreme weather events (or a
    succession thereof) will probably agree with.

    Electoral systems based on 2 parties fail spectacularly quickly in cases
    where the electorate can be polarized around several mutually exclusive
    single issues. For the UK Brexit (and now membership of the Council of
    Europe) did just that. In the US it seems to be womens rights in general,
    plus gun laws, plus immigration. And both sides of the water that is an engineered and artificial situation.

    When the bookies start taking odds on the next US civil war, it will be
    an interesting choice who to back. In 1860 it was a no brainer the Union
    would prevail. However there doesn't seem to be a modern equivalent.
    Although I suspect if you live in Mississippi you may well be on the
    losing side.

    Again.

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  • From Rick@21:1/5 to micky on Mon Oct 21 10:23:50 2024
    On 10/21/2024 1:18 AM, micky wrote:
    In misc.legal.moderated, on Sun, 20 Oct 2024 12:33:59 -0700 (PDT),
    Jethro_uk <[email protected]> wrote:

    I used to think the UK should have a written constitution.

    I'm not so sure now ....

    Lots of big problems with ours, giving the same number of senators to
    small states as big. When we got started, the ratio in population was
    iirc 8-1, now California to Wyoming is aiui 80-1. And the number of
    electors is the sum of the number of reps and senators, so again small
    states get an unfair advantage.

    But what is worse is the winner take all rule regarding state electors.
    I guess it's left over from the early feeling that each state was almost
    as separate as a separate country and if one candidate got a majority,
    ALL the electors should vote for him. When I lived in Chicago and NY,
    I guess there was plenty of nation-centered activity. Chicago had the Democratic convention and NYC has loads of stuff.

    But when I got to Maryland, I gradually noticed that we are left out of
    the presidential campaign. This has been true of other states too and
    this year all the campaigning is in 7 states. That's not right.

    If we got rid of the winner-take-all-rule, then *every* state would have
    at least one elector in play. Candidates would campaign in all 50
    states and no one's vote would be as unimportant as mine is this year.
    Both Democrats and Republicans in states that are certain to go one way
    or the other have no impact on the election.

    A good book on this is _No Democracy Lasts Forever_ by the dean of the
    law school of UC Berkeley. Based on his 1-hour radio interview, he
    seems to make what I consider one mistake. A caller asked him about gerrymandering and wouldn't that pollute the electoral votes like it
    does congressional votes, and he agreed and said it could be remedied by
    a federal law outlawing partisan gerrymandering.

    Yes it could, but I don't think electors should be elected from
    Congressional districts. The state should cast its votes and the
    percent of the vote that each candidate gets state-wide should determine
    the percent of electors he gets, unrelated to where in the state his
    votes were cast. As good and democratic as this is, Republicans in Congress won't vote for it because it would diminish their power. And nothing has shown more clearly than the last 3 years that power is what
    they want. For example, see all the nasty things Mitch McConnell said
    about trump and yet he's on their team now. And Nikki Haley and others.


    I suspect if the roles were reversed and it was the Democrats who
    dominated the rural areas and small states like Utah and Wyoming and the Republicans who dominated big cities and large states like NY and
    California, you might feel differently. I find that most people who
    argue for or against the electoral college, or, more precisely, the "winner-take-all" view of how presidential votes are counted, are
    motivated more by their political beliefs than anything else.

    The point is that we (the USA) really are a collection of 50 separate
    political states, each with its own rules and cultures. While we
    clearly have many things in common, there is no dispute that people in
    say, rural Wyoming are very different in they way they view and live
    their lives that someone in Chicago or NYC. The founding Fathers, in
    their wisdom, recognized this, even with only 13 states.

    The current system, where presidential campaigns are only waged in seven battleground states where political views on both sides are equally
    dominant, may strike you as unfair, but consider the alternative. If
    elections were just based on popular votes or some variant thereof,
    campaigns would only be done in a few large metropolitan areas in
    probably far fewer than seven states.

    The real bottom line is that if you want to change the system, get
    enough like-minded people to agree with you and do so. If you are not
    able to do that, than maybe people are more satisfied with the current
    system than you realize.

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  • From Barry Gold@21:1/5 to All on Mon Oct 21 14:35:48 2024
    On 10/21/2024 6:59 AM, Jethro_uk wrote:
    I think for the US, "winner takes all" seems to cause similar problems to
    the UKs First Past The Post system. Where in many cases the winning
    candidate can safely ignore the majority of the electorate.

    One thing I have noticed in my life, is nature tends to solve problems
    where man can't (or won't). Electoral reform being an example. However, another thing I have noticed is that nature really doesn't care how it
    fixes things. Something victims of extreme weather events (or a
    succession thereof) will probably agree with.

    Electoral systems based on 2 parties fail spectacularly quickly in cases where the electorate can be polarized around several mutually exclusive single issues. For the UK Brexit (and now membership of the Council of Europe) did just that. In the US it seems to be womens rights in general, plus gun laws, plus immigration. And both sides of the water that is an engineered and artificial situation.

    When the bookies start taking odds on the next US civil war, it will be
    an interesting choice who to back. In 1860 it was a no brainer the Union would prevail. However there doesn't seem to be a modern equivalent.
    Although I suspect if you live in Mississippi you may well be on the
    losing side.

    The most "obvious" systems, e.g., our plurality-wins system, or a
    ranked-choice system where you eliminate the choice with the fewest
    votes, will inevitably produce undesirable results in some situations.
    See https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arrow's_impossibility_theorem

    However, it is possible to construct systems where "cyclic ties" (think rock-paper-scissors) are rare. Trying to get one implemented in the US
    would be difficult because a significant number of current officeholders
    would lose under those systems.

    One state - Alaska - has implemented a ranked voting system. It seems to
    be doing what it was designed to do: produce winners who are closer to
    the center rather than voters having to choose between two extremists.
    --
    I do so have a memory. It's backed up on DVD... somewhere...

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
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  • From Jethro_uk@21:1/5 to Rick on Mon Oct 21 14:39:24 2024
    On Mon, 21 Oct 2024 10:23:50 -0700, Rick wrote:

    The real bottom line is that if you want to change the system, get
    enough like-minded people to agree with you and do so. If you are not
    able to do that, than maybe people are more satisfied with the current
    system than you realize.

    You could have said the same thing in 1788 in France ...

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
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  • From micky@21:1/5 to [email protected] on Tue Oct 22 08:49:15 2024
    In misc.legal.moderated, on Mon, 21 Oct 2024 06:59:22 -0700 (PDT),
    Jethro_uk <[email protected]> wrote:

    I think for the US, "winner takes all" seems to cause similar problems to
    the UKs First Past The Post system. Where in many cases the winning
    candidate can safely ignore the majority of the electorate.

    One thing I have noticed in my life, is nature tends to solve problems
    where man can't (or won't). Electoral reform being an example. However, >another thing I have noticed is that nature really doesn't care how it
    fixes things. Something victims of extreme weather events (or a
    succession thereof) will probably agree with.

    Electoral systems based on 2 parties fail spectacularly quickly in cases >where the electorate can be polarized around several mutually exclusive >single issues. For the UK Brexit (and now membership of the Council of >Europe) did just that. In the US it seems to be womens rights in general, >plus gun laws, plus immigration.

    But none of that is causing the electoral system to fail. Even the US
    Civil War did not. What do you mean "fail"?

    And both sides of the water that is an
    engineered and artificial situation.

    ???

    When the bookies start taking odds on the next US civil war, it will be
    an interesting choice who to back. In 1860 it was a no brainer the Union >would prevail. However there doesn't seem to be a modern equivalent.
    Although I suspect if you live in Mississippi you may well be on the
    losing side.

    Again.

    There's not going to be a civil war.

    --
    I think you can tell, but just to be sure:
    I am not a lawyer.

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  • From Jethro_uk@21:1/5 to Barry Gold on Tue Oct 22 08:51:42 2024
    On Mon, 21 Oct 2024 14:35:48 -0700, Barry Gold wrote:

    One state - Alaska - has implemented a ranked voting system. It seems to
    be doing what it was designed to do: produce winners who are closer to
    the center rather than voters having to choose between two extremists.

    Well - as nobody ever said: "Where Alaska goes, the US follows" ...

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  • From micky@21:1/5 to [email protected] on Tue Oct 22 08:50:08 2024
    In misc.legal.moderated, on Mon, 21 Oct 2024 14:39:24 -0700 (PDT),
    Jethro_uk <[email protected]> wrote:

    On Mon, 21 Oct 2024 10:23:50 -0700, Rick wrote:

    The real bottom line is that if you want to change the system, get
    enough like-minded people to agree with you and do so. If you are not
    able to do that, than maybe people are more satisfied with the current
    system than you realize.

    You could have said the same thing in 1788 in France ...

    Those who make peaceful revolution impossible make violent revolution inevitable.

    I bet you'll be surprised at who said this.

    --
    I think you can tell, but just to be sure:
    I am not a lawyer.

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
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  • From micky@21:1/5 to [email protected] on Tue Oct 22 08:48:15 2024
    In misc.legal.moderated, on Mon, 21 Oct 2024 10:23:50 -0700 (PDT), Rick <[email protected]> wrote:

    On 10/21/2024 1:18 AM, micky wrote:
    In misc.legal.moderated, on Sun, 20 Oct 2024 12:33:59 -0700 (PDT),
    Jethro_uk <[email protected]> wrote:

    I used to think the UK should have a written constitution.

    I'm not so sure now ....

    Lots of big problems with ours, giving the same number of senators to
    small states as big. When we got started, the ratio in population was
    iirc 8-1, now California to Wyoming is aiui 80-1. And the number of
    electors is the sum of the number of reps and senators, so again small
    states get an unfair advantage.

    But what is worse is the winner take all rule regarding state electors.
    I guess it's left over from the early feeling that each state was almost
    as separate as a separate country and if one candidate got a majority,
    ALL the electors should vote for him. When I lived in Chicago and NY,
    I guess there was plenty of nation-centered activity. Chicago had the
    Democratic convention and NYC has loads of stuff.

    But when I got to Maryland, I gradually noticed that we are left out of
    the presidential campaign. This has been true of other states too and
    this year all the campaigning is in 7 states. That's not right.

    If we got rid of the winner-take-all-rule, then *every* state would have
    at least one elector in play. Candidates would campaign in all 50
    states and no one's vote would be as unimportant as mine is this year.
    Both Democrats and Republicans in states that are certain to go one way
    or the other have no impact on the election.

    A good book on this is _No Democracy Lasts Forever_ by the dean of the
    law school of UC Berkeley. Based on his 1-hour radio interview, he
    seems to make what I consider one mistake. A caller asked him about
    gerrymandering and wouldn't that pollute the electoral votes like it
    does congressional votes, and he agreed and said it could be remedied by
    a federal law outlawing partisan gerrymandering.

    Yes it could, but I don't think electors should be elected from
    Congressional districts. The state should cast its votes and the
    percent of the vote that each candidate gets state-wide should determine
    the percent of electors he gets, unrelated to where in the state his
    votes were cast. As good and democratic as this is, Republicans in
    Congress won't vote for it because it would diminish their power. And
    nothing has shown more clearly than the last 3 years that power is what
    they want. For example, see all the nasty things Mitch McConnell said
    about trump and yet he's on their team now. And Nikki Haley and others.


    I suspect if the roles were reversed and it was the Democrats who
    dominated the rural areas and small states like Utah and Wyoming and the >Republicans who dominated big cities and large states like NY and
    California, you might feel differently.

    As I red this sentence, I thought you were going to say that Democratic politicians would react the same way as Republican politicians had, if
    the situation was reversed. And some surely would. Others might have.
    But you think *I* might feel differently. No. I believe in democracy.
    I think you think that because you are all right with the undemocratic
    nature of the current system.

    I find that most people who
    argue for or against the electoral college, or, more precisely, the >"winner-take-all" view of how presidential votes are counted, are
    motivated more by their political beliefs than anything else.

    Their views coincide with their political aspirations, but they are not motivated by them. It's wrong in this day and age, it's undemocratic
    and Democrats know it and say it. Republicans have a big reason to run
    from the truth, and so they do.

    As to political *beliefs*, I thought we were all supposed to believe in
    one man, one vote, the equal protection of the laws. equal
    representation, but I see that we don't all do that.

    The point is that we (the USA) really are a collection of 50 separate >political states, each with its own rules and cultures.

    And what about that justifies ignoring the votes of 30, 40, 49% of a
    state's voters? Nothing. Differences in culture have no bearing on
    whether someone's vote should be counted.

    While we
    clearly have many things in common, there is no dispute that people in
    say, rural Wyoming are very different in they way they view and live
    their lives that someone in Chicago or NYC.

    And what about that justifies ignoring the votes of 30, 40, 49% of a
    state's voters?

    The founding Fathers, in
    their wisdom, recognized this, even with only 13 states.

    They had no choice. Do you think they didn't notice the problems with,
    the undemocratic nature of, the system they came up with?

    https://csac.history.wisc.edu/document-collections/constitutional-debates/senate/
    "Large-state Federalists justified the equality of the states in the
    Senate largely on the basis of expediency. Without this concession to
    the small states at the Constitutional Convention, consensus would have
    been impossible."

    That's about the Senate, but I'm sure the same factors caused the
    compriomise for the electoral colegel. One who knew the literature
    better could find the same statement about the electoral college. Winner-take-all voting for the electoral college would not have existed
    until after the Constitution was ratified So there is nothing about it
    in the Federalist Papers. I don't know when it started, but there is no evidence the founders would have liked it. I'm sure they'd agree with
    me.

    The current system, where presidential campaigns are only waged in seven >battleground states where political views on both sides are equally
    dominant, may strike you as unfair, but consider the alternative. If >elections were just based on popular votes or some variant thereof,
    campaigns would only be done in a few large metropolitan areas in
    probably far fewer than seven states.

    No, that is not the alternative which would actually happen. I wrote
    about that. Every state would have one electoral vote in play, and I
    think at times some states would have two. Campaigning would be in 48
    states and maybe the other 2. Campaigning would be with the people live.
    Within a given state, the campaigning would be where the current set of
    issues and candidates created the most undecided voters.

    There are two stages to campaigning, persuasion and getting the vote
    out. For lack of time tonight and lack of knowledge about the
    electorate, I'm skipping persuasion for now. But Democrats would be
    trying to turn out the vote in Manhattan and Brooklyn, and Republicans
    in Staten Island and smaller cities and towns. Similar in other states,
    but there would be a serious effort in all states because EVERY state
    would have one electoral vote in play.

    Aiui this had only happened once before 2000, in 1876. That wasn't
    good, but since 2000, twice out of 11 elections, the one who won fewer
    votes has been elected president. And it could happen again this year
    with disastrous results. So before 2000, this was mostly a theoretical
    issue. Now it's a real, big one. Banning winner-take-all would not
    end this possibility but it would greatly, greatly reduce the chance of
    it.

    The real bottom line is that if you want to change the system, get
    enough like-minded people to agree with you and do so.

    The real bottom line is that you want to keep the system the same, where Republicans are over represented. That's good for Republicans, used to
    be good for conservatives, and is now good for pretend-conservatives.

    If you are not
    able to do that, than maybe people are more satisfied with the current
    system than you realize.

    No. It's that people are reluctant to make big changes. It's that "all experience hath shewn, that mankind are more disposed to suffer, while
    evils are sufferable, than to right themselves by abolishing the forms
    to which they are accustomed." and that even now, we know that
    Republicans will be able to stop such changes.

    --
    I think you can tell, but just to be sure:
    I am not a lawyer.

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  • From Rick@21:1/5 to micky on Tue Oct 22 10:56:53 2024
    On 10/22/2024 11:50 AM, micky wrote:
    Those who make peaceful revolution impossible make violent revolution inevitable.

    Pretty sure that be JFK...

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  • From Jethro_uk@21:1/5 to micky on Tue Oct 22 10:46:28 2024
    On Tue, 22 Oct 2024 08:50:08 -0700, micky wrote:

    In misc.legal.moderated, on Mon, 21 Oct 2024 14:39:24 -0700 (PDT),
    Jethro_uk <[email protected]> wrote:

    On Mon, 21 Oct 2024 10:23:50 -0700, Rick wrote:

    The real bottom line is that if you want to change the system, get
    enough like-minded people to agree with you and do so. If you are not
    able to do that, than maybe people are more satisfied with the current
    system than you realize.

    You could have said the same thing in 1788 in France ...

    Those who make peaceful revolution impossible make violent revolution inevitable.

    I bet you'll be surprised at who said this.

    At a guess, Jefferson ?

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  • From Barry Gold@21:1/5 to micky on Tue Oct 22 14:20:01 2024
    On 10/22/2024 8:48 AM, micky wrote:
    I find that most people who
    argue for or against the electoral college, or, more precisely, the
    "winner-take-all" view of how presidential votes are counted, are
    motivated more by their political beliefs than anything else.
    Their views coincide with their political aspirations, but they are not motivated by them. It's wrong in this day and age, it's undemocratic
    and Democrats know it and say it. Republicans have a big reason to run
    from the truth, and so they do.

    As to political*beliefs*, I thought we were all supposed to believe in
    one man, one vote, the equal protection of the laws. equal
    representation, but I see that we don't all do that.

    The problem with a simple popular vote is that it completely shuts out
    states like Montana and Vermont. But the current system gives
    insufficient weight to CA, TX, FL, and NY.

    As with most political problems, there is no one best solution. But if something really bad happens(*) it might be enough to get Congress to
    send an amendment to the states. It probably won't be purely popular
    vote, but it will probably balance things somewhat more toward the large states.

    One fairly simple compromise: each state gets 1+N electoral votes
    instead of 2+N. Another: increase the size of the HR, so that the fixed
    2 (or 1) vote(s) has less influence on the results. Growing the HR
    linearly with the US population is probably impractical, but it might be possible to tie it to the square root of the US population, as some have suggested.

    One thing for certain: it's going to take a disaster before anything
    gets done.

    (*) e.g., Trump wins in November while losing the popular vote by a huge margin, puts at least some of his crazy ideas into effect, and we
    somehow survive that and elect a Democratic President and Congress in
    2028 -- or maybe not until 2032.

    --
    I do so have a memory. It's backed up on DVD... somewhere...

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
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  • From Stuart O. Bronstein@21:1/5 to Rick on Tue Oct 22 14:21:19 2024
    Rick <[email protected]> wrote:
    micky wrote:

    Those who make peaceful revolution impossible make violent revolution
    inevitable.

    Pretty sure that be JFK...

    Right, at least according to several websites. Here's one:

    https://www.goodreads.com/quotes/8333235-those-who-make-peaceful- revolution-impossible-make-violent-revolution-inevitable


    --
    Stu
    http://DownToEarthLawyer.com

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  • From micky@21:1/5 to Stuart O. Bronstein on Tue Oct 22 22:10:01 2024
    In misc.legal.moderated, on Tue, 22 Oct 2024 14:21:19 -0700 (PDT),
    "Stuart O. Bronstein" <[email protected]> wrote:

    Rick <[email protected]> wrote:
    micky wrote:

    Those who make peaceful revolution impossible make violent revolution
    inevitable.

    Pretty sure that be JFK...

    Right, at least according to several websites. Here's one:

    https://www.goodreads.com/quotes/8333235-those-who-make-peaceful- >revolution-impossible-make-violent-revolution-inevitable

    Yes, I meant him. I don't rememeber his saying it, but I was only 16
    when he died, the national news was only 15 minutes long during part of
    his administration iirc, and we subscribed to the Inndianapolis Star but
    it wasn't very big.

    I wish I knew some context.


    --
    I think you can tell, but just to be sure:
    I am not a lawyer.

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  • From John Levine@21:1/5 to [email protected] on Tue Oct 22 22:09:04 2024
    It appears that Barry Gold <[email protected]> said:
    As to political*beliefs*, I thought we were all supposed to believe in
    one man, one vote, the equal protection of the laws. equal
    representation, but I see that we don't all do that.

    The problem with a simple popular vote is that it completely shuts out
    states like Montana and Vermont.

    No, it doesn't. It means that a vote in Vermont or Wyoming is as valuable as one
    in New York or California. It also means that it's worth campaigning anywhere a candidate might pick up some votes, without having to worry that a red or blue wall elsewhere in the state would make them irrelevant.

    But the current system gives
    insufficient weight to CA, TX, FL, and NY.

    No kidding. The Electoral College was invented to ensure that the slave states didn't get outvoted. The 3/5 rule inflated their number of reps, and hence their
    nuumber of electoral votes. Surely we can do better now.

    One fairly simple compromise: each state gets 1+N electoral votes
    instead of 2+N.

    The National Popular Vote Interstate Compact says that once enough states have approved it that they have have a majority of the electors, the states in the compact will give all their electors to the candidate who gets the most votes nationwide. It's sort of a gimmick but has the advantage that it can work with the current rules. It's been passed by states with 209 electors and needs 61 more.
    See https://www.nationalpopularvote.com/

    Another: increase the size of the HR, so that the fixed
    2 (or 1) vote(s) has less influence on the results. Growing the HR
    linearly with the US population is probably impractical, but it might be >possible to tie it to the square root of the US population, as some have >suggested.

    The House grew steadily from 59 seats in 1789 to 435 when it was capped by a law
    in 1929. There is nothing magic about that number--the German Bundestag has 700 and it works fine. Apparently the magic formula is that the size grows with the cube root of the population, which would give about 700 seats. See:

    https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-the-house-got-stuck-at-435-seats/

    --
    Regards,
    John Levine, [email protected], Primary Perpetrator of "The Internet for Dummies",
    Please consider the environment before reading this e-mail. https://jl.ly

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  • From micky@21:1/5 to Gold on Tue Oct 22 22:09:32 2024
    In misc.legal.moderated, on Tue, 22 Oct 2024 14:20:01 -0700 (PDT), Barry
    Gold <[email protected]> wrote:

    On 10/22/2024 8:48 AM, micky wrote:
    I find that most people who
    argue for or against the electoral college, or, more precisely, the
    "winner-take-all" view of how presidential votes are counted, are
    motivated more by their political beliefs than anything else.
    Their views coincide with their political aspirations, but they are not
    motivated by them. It's wrong in this day and age, it's undemocratic
    and Democrats know it and say it. Republicans have a big reason to run
    from the truth, and so they do.

    As to political*beliefs*, I thought we were all supposed to believe in
    one man, one vote, the equal protection of the laws. equal
    representation, but I see that we don't all do that.

    The problem with a simple popular vote is that it completely shuts out

    FTRecord, I hadn't suggested a simple popular vote for President.

    states like Montana and Vermont.

    But I don't know why you say this. Are you saying that states, qua
    states, deserve representation in the election in addition to what the
    citizens of the states deserve? And that giving 2 additional electoral
    votes to states which only have one congressman somehow gives the
    *state* more representation in the election, instead of just giving its
    voters or citizens more representation than if they had only one
    electoral vote? It seems to me it does nothing for the states as
    state, only for the voters. And the voters don't deserve it.

    But the current system gives
    insufficient weight to CA, TX, FL, and NY.

    If that is INsufficient, why isn't the weight given to Montana and
    Vermont GREATER THAN sufficient? And improperly so? The two go
    together. Vermont is the reciprocal of California.

    Now I want to point out that I didn't suggest eliminating the 2 extra
    votes that Vermont and Montana get. I only said that the electoral
    votes within a state, the same number as now afaik, should be
    apportioned according to how the voters vote. You haven't given any
    objection to that.

    BTW, Maine and Nebraska do not have winner-take-all but they also do not apportion the votes as I would prefer. "In Nebraska and Maine, the
    State winner receives two electors and the winner of each congressional district (who may be the same as the overall winner or a different
    candidate) receives one elector. This system permits Nebraska and Maine
    to award electors to more than one candidate." https://www.archives.gov/electoral-college/electors
    IIUC the district in Nebraska likely to vote Democratic is small and
    surrounds Omaha, and in Maine it's the small district surrounding
    Portland, each the biggest city in their states. )

    As with most political problems, there is no one best solution. But if

    There are certainly better plans than we have now. I have a problem
    with the word "solution". I don't want to start a discussion on this
    topic except about the English language, and I don't plan to comment on anything but the English language, but it's worth pointing out that just
    about everyone on every side (except me) talks about the Middle East and
    the possible "two-state solution". This assumes what should be argued
    about and proven or at least shown to be likely. That having two states
    would be a solution, and not just a different form of the problem.
    Indeed Gaza was self-ruling since 2010 and that didn't seem to be a
    solution. I tend to think people don't think of the meaning of
    "solution" as the meaning I've always attached to it**. Not that you
    weren't using it as I do, right here, but so many people seem not to.

    **Sort of like a lot of people, even on the news, use "refute" when they
    mean contradict, deny, rebut.

    something really bad happens(*) it might be enough to get Congress to
    send an amendment to the states.

    I have a scenario about that, but I can't discuss it with anyone until
    the election or even until the inauguration. Stay tuned.

    It probably won't be purely popular
    vote, but it will probably balance things somewhat more toward the large >states.

    For some reason which might well be incorrect, I have long thought and
    still keep thinking that my system makes less likely a possible near-tie
    than in a purely popular vote. Maybe what I'm thinking not about the likelihood but about the remedy to follow. That is, that if there were
    a near-tie in a national popular vote, they would have to recount the
    whole country. What a burden, etc. But if there were a tie or near
    tie in the electoral vote using my system, and a borderline vote in the apportionment of electors in some states, they would only have to
    recount the states which were borderline. That is, Say the state had 10 electoral votes and 1 million voters, and one candidate got a multiple
    of 100,000 + 5, 10, 20 votes, and the other got the difference - 5, 10,
    20 votes. A 20 vote shift during a recount would change one electoral
    vote and that might matter, but it would matter much less than changing
    a whole state's electoral votes. And there could be more than one
    state (where the vote is close to a/n where n is the number of electoral
    votes total and a is the number that the leading candidate seems to have
    won), there may be more than one state where a recount would change one
    vote. But I guarantee you, there will be no state where a recount can
    change more than one electoral vote. Because****

    Of course now in a state with a million votes the boundary line isn't
    every 100,000 votes, it's only the 500,000 vote boundary, but if a
    recount switches 20 votes, the whole state votes for someone else.
    That's far more likely to change who gets elected, and it it's
    anti-democratic for every electoral vote of the state to be cast for one candidate when the other got 49% of the vote.

    ****Because there are about 300,000,000 citizens and 200,000,000
    eligible voter and 535 or 537 electoral votes, iow 400,000 voters per
    electoral vote. the count might be off by 5,,10, 20, 10,000, but it
    will not be off by more than 400,000, and if it is not off by more than 400,000, only one electoral vote will change in a recount.

    So I think maybe we would be likely to know the result earlier, since
    close votes would only affect at most one electoral vote per state.

    One fairly simple compromise: each state gets 1+N electoral votes
    instead of 2+N.

    That would be a modest change, compared to 0+N.

    Another: increase the size of the HR, so that the fixed
    2 (or 1) vote(s) has less influence on the results.

    That is only a good idea if increasing the size of the HR is a good
    idea, because the size of the HR matters all day every day, not just on election day.

    However one could double the number of electors without changing the
    size of the HR. Then they could keep their extra 2. 2N+2 is equivalent
    to N+1. I only thought of this because of what you just said.

    But none of this remedies the winner-take-all problem, which I still
    think is greater than the extra 2 electors per state.

    It's a shame this wasn't fixed when the Dems had the presidency, the
    house, and 60 votes in the senate. They could have done a balanced
    job. Was it even brought up?

    Growing the HR
    linearly with the US population is probably impractical, but it might be >possible to tie it to the square root of the US population, as some have >suggested.

    One thing for certain: it's going to take a disaster before anything
    gets done.

    Sort of like they only put up traffic stop lights after a fatality.

    (*) e.g., Trump wins in November while losing the popular vote by a huge >margin, puts at least some of his crazy ideas into effect, and we
    somehow survive that and elect a Democratic President and Congress in
    2028 -- or maybe not until 2032.

    Oy.

    --
    I think you can tell, but just to be sure:
    I am not a lawyer.

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  • From Barry Gold@21:1/5 to John Levine on Tue Oct 22 23:02:28 2024
    On 10/22/2024 10:09 PM, John Levine wrote:
    The National Popular Vote Interstate Compact says that once enough states have
    approved it that they have have a majority of the electors, the states in the compact will give all their electors to the candidate who gets the most votes nationwide. It's sort of a gimmick but has the advantage that it can work with
    the current rules. It's been passed by states with 209 electors and needs 61 more.
    Seehttps://www.nationalpopularvote.com/

    There's something to be said for the National Popular Vote Interstate
    Compact, but it has one problem: there (currently) is no way to enforce it.

    Let's say that we reach the point where states totaling 70 electors sign
    the NPVIC. The election is held, and the Democratic candidate has 50.5%
    of the popular vote. But a couple of those states in the Compact have legislatures with a Republican majority. So those legislatures decide to certify the Republican electors.

    Now what? It's unlikely that the Federal Courts will enforce the
    Compact, because of Article I, section 10, paragraph 3. Maybe the State
    Supreme Court would rule that the lege must certify the Democratic
    slate. And maybe the lege would actually obey that ruling. But ISTM that
    state Supreme Courts -- especially in "red" states -- are becoming more
    and more an arm of the Republican Party, just as is happening with SCOTUS.

    --
    I do so have a memory. It's backed up on DVD... somewhere...

    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
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  • From micky@21:1/5 to Levine" on Tue Oct 22 23:03:19 2024
    In misc.legal.moderated, on Tue, 22 Oct 2024 22:09:04 -0700 (PDT), "John Levine" <[email protected]> wrote:


    One fairly simple compromise: each state gets 1+N electoral votes
    instead of 2+N.

    The National Popular Vote Interstate Compact says that once enough states have >approved it that they have have a majority of the electors, the states in the >compact will give all their electors to the candidate who gets the most votes >nationwide. It's sort of a gimmick but has the advantage that it can work with >the current rules. It's been passed by states with 209 electors and needs 61 more.
    See https://www.nationalpopularvote.com/


    Erwin Chemerinsky, (the dean of the University of California, Berkeley
    School of Law) is the author of the book I mentioned, No Democracy Lasts Forever. Here's a 48 minute interview with him, very interesting. On
    the point above he said that if, say, Texas pledged to vote its electors
    for the one who won the popular vote, he's not sure they'd really do it.
    So he wsn't big on that. He talks about lots of issues on this show,
    and Tom Hall asks good questions

    But aiui, authors often come with a list of questions for their
    interviewer to ask, LOL. They don't tell us when they do that. I wonder
    how often it is. I guess a good interviewer is one who can read the
    question and make it sound like he thought of it, LOL

    https://www.wypr.org/show/midday/2024-10-10/does-the-constitution-impede-the-future-of-american-democracy

    --
    I think you can tell, but just to be sure:
    I am not a lawyer.

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  • From Mike Anderson@21:1/5 to Barry Gold on Wed Jun 18 16:11:34 2025
    On 10/21/2024 5:35 PM, Barry Gold wrote:
    On 10/21/2024 6:59 AM, Jethro_uk wrote:
    I think for the US, "winner takes all" seems to cause similar problems to
    the UKs First Past The Post system. Where in many cases the winning
    candidate can safely ignore the majority of the electorate.

    One thing I have noticed in my life, is nature tends to solve problems
    where man can't (or won't). Electoral reform being an example. However,
    another thing I have noticed is that nature really doesn't care how it
    fixes things. Something victims of extreme weather events (or a
    succession thereof) will probably agree with.

    Electoral systems based on 2 parties fail spectacularly quickly in cases
    where the electorate can be polarized around several mutually exclusive
    single issues. For the UK Brexit (and now membership of the Council of
    Europe) did just that. In the US it seems to be womens rights in general,
    plus gun laws, plus immigration. And both sides of the water that is an
    engineered and artificial situation.

    When the bookies start taking odds on the next US civil war, it will be
    an interesting choice who to back. In 1860 it was a no brainer the Union
    would prevail. However there doesn't seem to be a modern equivalent.
    Although I suspect if you live in Mississippi you may well be on the
    losing side.

    The most "obvious" systems, e.g., our plurality-wins system, or a ranked-choice system where you eliminate the choice with the fewest
    votes, will inevitably produce undesirable results in some situations.
    See https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arrow's_impossibility_theorem

    However, it is possible to construct systems where "cyclic ties" (think rock-paper-scissors) are rare. Trying to get one implemented in the US
    would be difficult because a significant number of current officeholders would lose under those systems.

    One state - Alaska - has implemented a ranked voting system. It seems to
    be doing what it was designed to do: produce winners who are closer to
    the center rather than voters having to choose between two extremists.

    Take three 4-sided dice (basically, a pyramid shape with a triangular
    base.)

    Die A has the numbers 4, 5, 6, and 7 on its sides.

    Die B has the numbers 2, 4, 5, and 10 on its sides.

    Die C has the numbers 1, 4, 8, and 9 on its sides.

    You pick any die and then I pick another. We roll them and if they come
    up with the same number, we rill again. If they are different, the
    higher number wins. We roll them 100 times, not counting the ties.

    If you chose die A, I'd chose die C. If you chose Die B, I'd chose die
    A. If you chose die C, I'd chose die B.

    I will win 66 of the rolls (or there-about.) It's basically cyclical,
    like rock-paper-scissors, but the odds are not the same for any pair
    (where-as truly random rock-paper-scissors has 50-50 odds for any given player.)

    Elections can also have this sort of non-transitive property when
    there's more than two candidates, no matter if you have
    multiple-choices, "my second-best", etc.

    Candidate A gets 32 votes. Candidate B gets 34 votes. Candidate C gets
    35. 66% if the people voted against C but C still wins.

    Now let's say they have to get a majority. So we have a run-off between
    B and C. Now 32 people vote for B or C that didn't vote for them before.
    Now B winds up with 51 votes and C has 49. So now B is the winner.

    See:
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Condorcet_paradox https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arrow%27s_impossibility_theorem (mentioned
    by someone else in here)
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spoiler_effect (mentioned by someone else
    in here)
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quadratic_voting https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Smith_set https://www.youtube.com/shorts/Vn520EMiHck
    https://youtu.be/rbVoEjS6Q1Q

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  • From Mike Anderson@21:1/5 to Rick on Thu Jun 19 21:54:56 2025
    On 10/21/2024 1:23 PM, Rick wrote:
    I suspect if the roles were reversed and it was the Democrats who
    dominated the rural areas and small states like Utah and Wyoming and the Republicans who dominated big cities and large states like NY and
    California, you might feel differently.  I find that most people who
    argue for or against the electoral college, or, more precisely, the "winner-take-all" view of how presidential votes are counted, are
    motivated more by their political beliefs than anything else.

    The point is that we (the USA) really are a collection of 50 separate political states, each with its own rules and cultures.  While we
    clearly have many things in common, there is no dispute that people in
    say, rural Wyoming are very different in they way they view and live
    their lives that someone in Chicago or NYC.  The founding Fathers, in
    their wisdom, recognized this, even with only 13 states.

    The current system, where presidential campaigns are only waged in seven battleground states where political views on both sides are equally
    dominant, may strike you as unfair, but consider the alternative.  If elections were just based on popular votes or some variant thereof,
    campaigns would only be done in a few large metropolitan areas in
    probably far fewer than seven states.

    If the few large areas are where the majority of the people live, then campaigning in those areas is to be expected.

    If you could only hold two rallies during the campaign (and no other
    events, commercials, press conferences, etc.), would it be better to go
    to someplace like NYC or LA or should you go to Anchorage? The electoral college, as it's setup now, may favor Anchorage but a popular vote
    system would favor LA or NYC.

    Saying "this method would concentrate power in just a few large cities
    and thus it's bad" makes no sense as those "few large cities" are where
    the people actually live. Why should 10,000 people in Anchorage dictate policies for 10,000,000 people in NYC?
    The real bottom line is that if you want to change the system, get
    enough like-minded people to agree with you and do so.  If you are not
    able to do that, than maybe people are more satisfied with the current
    system than you realize.


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  • From Rick@21:1/5 to Mike Anderson on Thu Jun 19 22:56:12 2025
    On 6/20/2025 12:54 AM, Mike Anderson wrote:
    On 10/21/2024 1:23 PM, Rick wrote:
    I suspect if the roles were reversed and it was the Democrats who
    dominated the rural areas and small states like Utah and Wyoming and
    the Republicans who dominated big cities and large states like NY and
    California, you might feel differently.  I find that most people who
    argue for or against the electoral college, or, more precisely, the
    "winner-take-all" view of how presidential votes are counted, are
    motivated more by their political beliefs than anything else.

    The point is that we (the USA) really are a collection of 50 separate
    political states, each with its own rules and cultures.  While we
    clearly have many things in common, there is no dispute that people in
    say, rural Wyoming are very different in they way they view and live
    their lives that someone in Chicago or NYC.  The founding Fathers, in
    their wisdom, recognized this, even with only 13 states.

    The current system, where presidential campaigns are only waged in
    seven battleground states where political views on both sides are
    equally dominant, may strike you as unfair, but consider the
    alternative.  If elections were just based on popular votes or some
    variant thereof, campaigns would only be done in a few large
    metropolitan areas in probably far fewer than seven states.

    If the few large areas are where the majority of the people live, then campaigning in those areas is to be expected.

    If you could only hold two rallies during the campaign (and no other
    events, commercials, press conferences, etc.), would it be better to go
    to someplace like NYC or LA or should you go to Anchorage? The electoral college, as it's setup now, may favor Anchorage but a popular vote
    system would favor LA or NYC.

    Saying "this method would concentrate power in just a few large cities
    and thus it's bad" makes no sense as those "few large cities" are where
    the people actually live. Why should 10,000 people in Anchorage dictate policies for 10,000,000 people in NYC?

    For the same reason that a smaller country with say five million
    citizens has just as much influence in a United Nations General Assembly
    vote as a nation with 100 million citizens. In the UN GA, every nation
    gets one vote.

    In the US, the states are similar in many ways to the different
    countries in the UN - they each have their own governments, and the
    citizens of a state like Alaska are likely to have different cultures
    and views and in many cases eve different laws than the citizens of
    California or Idaho or Maine. Unlike the UN GA, the states don't all
    have just one vote - the larger states will have more votes than the
    smaller ones. But there is a recognition in our system that culturally
    and in the sense of general views, laws and ways of living, we really
    are a nation of 50 separate political units. A straight popular vote
    would totally ignore that fact, and the Founding Fathers recognized that.

    Again, if you don't like that setup, get enough like-minded people to
    change the Constitution under the rules and procedures that are spelled
    out in the Constitution.




    The real bottom line is that if you want to change the system, get
    enough like-minded people to agree with you and do so.  If you are not
    able to do that, than maybe people are more satisfied with the current
    system than you realize.



    --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
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