Trump is under indictment in four cases, at least one of which stands a good chance of resulting in a conviction. He is also the leading candidate for
the Republican presidential nomination and seemingly has a 50-50 chance of being re-elected. Whether he is re-elected or not, the possibility of an ex-president with lifetime secret service protection being sent to even a low-security prison is difficult to fathom. The possibility of an elected president being sent to prison is even more so.

So how will this all play out? Here is my best guess:

I think the president and his attorneys will eventually realize (if they don’t
already) that he is almost certain to be convicted on at least one if not multiple felonies. While they know that can appeal these convictions, a process that would normally take years, they also know the Supreme Court has occasionally taken on expedited appeals (e.g., Watergate, the 2000 election dispute), which means a ruling sending Trump to prison could come either in
the midst of the campaign or perhaps in the midst of an actual presidential term. This is a result probably nobody wants. In the context of all
this, I think the most likely solution would be for the prosecutors to come together and design a plea bargain for Trump which he might have no choice
but to accept. I think the terms of that plea agreement will be something
like this:

1-Trump will have to plead guilty to at least one felony count, which will permanently brand him as a convicted felon. It should be a count with a
decent prison term

2-In lieu of imprisonment, Trump will serve out his sentence via home confinement, which will address the issue of how to maintain secret service protection.

3-As a condition of the agreement, Trump will sign a document certifying
that he will withdraw from the presidential race and will never run for
public office again.

Anyone see a more likely outcome?

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If he were to be elected President from a jail cell, I would be curious
as to how other world leaders and governments would react. In particular
my own Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland. Although I want it
to be noted that we came up with the idea of criminal Prime Minsters
before you Americans went and copied it. Although I will admit you may
end up doing it bigger and better .... <insert joke alert here>

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
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In misc.legal.moderated, on Sat, 28 Oct 2023 11:15:02 -0700 (PDT),
"Rick" <[email protected]> wrote:

Trump is under indictment in four cases, at least one of which stands a good >chance of resulting in a conviction. He is also the leading candidate for >the Republican presidential nomination and seemingly has a 50-50 chance of >being re-elected. Whether he is re-elected or not, the possibility of an >ex-president with lifetime secret service protection being sent to even a >low-security prison is difficult to fathom. The possibility of an elected >president being sent to prison is even more so.

I've read or heard several stories about how hard it would be to give SecService protection to him when he's in jail, but I don't see it that
way.

For one thing, he wouddn't be traveling so that would free up enormous
number of agents and amount of assets that have to iiuc** scope out
routes and destinations. **Maybe they dont' do that for anyone but the
current president, and his family, but just look at the caravan of secs
cars that met trump at the airport in Atlanta to drive him to and from
his arraignment. About 10 cars, each probably with 2 people. 18 of
those 20 people could be home sunbathing if he were in prison, plus all
those secs agents that were left behind in whatever place he had come
from that day, plus maybe there are secs agents guarding his other homes
even when he's not there or expected to be there.

While I think it's a good idea to get to those places 2 or 3 days in
advance of his expected arrival, if he's going to be in jail for 10
years (preferably 20) that leaves 9 years 362 days that no resources
have to be devoted to maralago, NYC, or Bedminster.

So if it takes some slight extra effort to guard him in prison they will
still be way ahead. If he were in a prison where everyone is locked in
a 8x8'cell, that would be best. A curtain could be hung between his
cell and the one on the other side, and none of the other prisoners
could even see him. At the other extreme, if he were in one with
dormitories (bunk beds or at least a row of beds?), there is surely
empty space to erect a pre-fab one-room cottage even with a built-in
bathroom (shower only, no tub) with a similar cottage 6' away for the secservice (with fully stocked refrigerator, internet, and cable tv, and exercise equipment and a sauna). If one thinks they have to be on both
sides of him, there would be two such cottages. I would be glad to
donate the money for one of them (exept the rec room), if that is a
problem.

"Federal Correctional Institutions are low-security federal prisons." In
this case the name and abbreviation FCI are misnomers, because there is
no chance of correcting trump, only of controlling him. Also a
reformatory would not make him reform, nor would a penitentiary make him penitent or do penance. (...in January, Trump told CNN�s Jake Tapper
that he does not �like to have to ask [God] for forgiveness. And I am
good. I don�t do a lot of things that are bad. I try to do nothing that
is bad.�
https://www.politico.com/story/2016/06/trump-forgiveness-god-224068
Admittedly this was 2016.

So how will this all play out? Here is my best guess:

I think the president and his attorneys will eventually realize (if they don�t >already) that he is almost certain to be convicted on at least one if not >multiple felonies. While they know that can appeal these convictions, a >process that would normally take years, they also know the Supreme Court has >occasionally taken on expedited appeals (e.g., Watergate, the 2000 election >dispute), which means a ruling sending Trump to prison could come either in >the midst of the campaign or perhaps in the midst of an actual presidential >term. This is a result probably nobody wants. In the context of all
this, I think the most likely solution would be for the prosecutors to come >together and design a plea bargain for Trump which he might have no choice >but to accept. I think the terms of that plea agreement will be something >like this:

Sounds reasonable, but some people think he'll never admit to anything
and that his lawyers' advice is something he's used to ignoring.

I'd like to see him serve 3 or 4 days** in jail for contempt. That
might have an effect on his willingness

**The first time. Double it each time after that.

1-Trump will have to plead guilty to at least one felony count, which will >permanently brand him as a convicted felon. It should be a count with a >decent prison term

Absolutely.

2-In lieu of imprisonment, Trump will serve out his sentence via home >confinement,

Which home? Absolutely not one of his current homes. There are some 400
square foot homes that would be moderately acceptable, but as i said
above, there is no need for that. Prison is fine.

https://www.amazon.com/Handy-Home-Products-Windemere-Yourself/dp/B09P47M7D4/ref=asc_df_B09P47M7D4/
$3400. Handy Home Products Windemere 10x12 Do-it-Yourself Wooden
Storage Shed with Floor. Just needs a cement floor, sink, shower, bed, dresser, table, and bars on the windows.

https://www.homedepot.com/p/The-California-240-sq-ft-Tiny-Small-Home-Steel-Frame-Building-Kit-ADU-Cabin-Guest-House-Home-Office-CADU240/320746686
The California 240 sq. ft. Tiny Small Home Steel Frame Building Kit ADU
Cabin Guest House Home Office.
Pre-assembled steel panels facilitate hassle-free installation
Made of high-quality steel to ensure durable use
Termite and shrink-proof for easy maintenance (Othewise it would
shrink?)
$19000/bundle. That's a lot more than Amazon's but it's twice as big,k
steel, and I think it includes inside walls and the bathroom fixtures.

In either case, you might get the vendor to donate the house if they
could add "prison cell" to their advertised lists of uses. Or better
yet, "Strong enough to be President Trump's prison cell"

Delivery Dec 6-11, 10 available.


I picked this prison in Pennsylvania, almost at random except that I
drove nearby a few weeks ago. Couldn't see it from the highway, but I
know I was in Allenwood.

It has an LSCI (low security) and an FCI but it also has a Penitentiary
right next door, so the guards can point out that if he causes trouble,
he can be transferred to a place he'll like less.

See how much empty space there is. I knew there would be. Easy to build
2 cottages. Room for an added fence if needed. Yes, it will damage the
symmetry of the sidewalks but it can be torn down and the grounds
restored after he dies. And just think of the money saved on the 30 or
40 SecService agents who will be freed up investigate counterfeit money matters. https://www.google.com/maps/place/LSCI+-+Allenwood/@41.1269782,-76.9257684,981m/data=!3m1!1e3!4m6!3m5!1s0x89cf09f9ed037cff:0x41f8c4398192d91d!8m2!3d41.1274922!4d-76.9219384!16s%2Fm%2F0kfxn5n?hl=en&entry=ttu

He would be in good company here. Jeb Stuart Magruder stayed here and
Martin Shkreki. I believe they scratched their initials on the walls,
maybe.

which will address the issue of how to maintain secret service
protection.

3-As a condition of the agreement, Trump will sign a document certifying
that he will withdraw from the presidential race and will never run for >public office again.

Anyone see a more likely outcome?

I hope you're wrong.

--
I think you can tell, but just to be sure:
I am not a lawyer.

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)

"micky" wrote in message news:[email protected]...

In misc.legal.moderated, on Sat, 28 Oct 2023 11:15:02 -0700 (PDT),
"Rick" <[email protected]> wrote:

Trump is under indictment in four cases, at least one of which stands a >>good
chance of resulting in a conviction. He is also the leading candidate for >>the Republican presidential nomination and seemingly has a 50-50 chance of >>being re-elected. Whether he is re-elected or not, the possibility of an >>ex-president with lifetime secret service protection being sent to even a >>low-security prison is difficult to fathom. The possibility of an elected >>president being sent to prison is even more so.

I've read or heard several stories about how hard it would be to give >SecService protection to him when he's in jail, but I don't see it that
way.

For one thing, he wouddn't be traveling so that would free up enormous
number of agents and amount of assets that have to iiuc** scope out
routes and destinations. **Maybe they dont' do that for anyone but the >current president, and his family, but just look at the caravan of secs
cars that met trump at the airport in Atlanta to drive him to and from
his arraignment. About 10 cars, each probably with 2 people. 18 of
those 20 people could be home sunbathing if he were in prison, plus all
those secs agents that were left behind in whatever place he had come
from that day, plus maybe there are secs agents guarding his other homes
even when he's not there or expected to be there.

While I think it's a good idea to get to those places 2 or 3 days in
advance of his expected arrival, if he's going to be in jail for 10
years (preferably 20) that leaves 9 years 362 days that no resources
have to be devoted to maralago, NYC, or Bedminster.

The issue isn't the availability of agents - it's the logistics of the
Secret Service being able to stay close enough to the ex-prez to be able to properly defend him. Most prisons aren't set up in the way that the Secret Service can have a proper security station with access to all the required communications and resources they would need.

Also, Trump's crimes are basically what you might call "white collar"
crimes, and he would technically be a first offender with no prior criminal record. Even ignoring who he is, he wouldn't likely be sent to a hard-core maximum security prison , but rather a dormitory style facility where
security is inherently low. Security is low in these facilities because no one expects the typical white collar criminal to try to escape. But in this case, the lack of barbed wire fences and the like would only increase the likelihood of some zealot trying to break in to get at the former president.

Which home? Absolutely not one of his current homes. There are some 400 >square foot homes that would be moderately acceptable, but as i said above, >there is no need for that. Prison is fine.

That's a valid point. I'm sure the government has facilities they use for witness protection and the like where Trump could be "housed" with embedded secret service protection and without the need for contact with other prisoners.

--

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
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On October 28, Rick wrote:

Trump is under indictment in four cases, at least one of which stands a good chance of resulting in a conviction. He is also the leading candidate for
the Republican presidential nomination and seemingly has a 50-50 chance of being re-elected. Whether he is re-elected or not, the possibility of an ex-president with lifetime secret service protection being sent to even a low-security prison is difficult to fathom. The possibility of an elected president being sent to prison is even more so.

So how will this all play out?

The numbers tell us that at least 3 jurors are Trump voters.
They might easily acquit, on the grounds that the charges
are politically motivated, in line with a 7 year Swamp
conspiracy against him. I refer you to the Durham and Mueller reports.
Recall that the defense only needs to create doubt, not innocence.

There are parallels to the OJ Simpson trial. His lawyers diverted that
into a referendum on LAPD behavior. Trump will probably follow a
similar tactic.

His lawyers well understand this, which is why he will plead
not guilty all the way, despite the other rats deserting the ship.
Still, the trials will be the top story, world wide - picture Vladi
Putin and Xi Jinping glued to their teevee - and who knows
how that will affect the elections. It might actually boost him.

I am not predicting this with certainty, but it's a good bet,
if you get the right odds -

--
Rich

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
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"RichD" wrote in message news:[email protected]...

On October 28, Rick wrote:

Trump is under indictment in four cases, at least one of which stands a
good
chance of resulting in a conviction. He is also the leading candidate for
the Republican presidential nomination and seemingly has a 50-50 chance
of
being re-elected. Whether he is re-elected or not, the possibility of an
ex-president with lifetime secret service protection being sent to even a
low-security prison is difficult to fathom. The possibility of an elected
president being sent to prison is even more so.

So how will this all play out?

The numbers tell us that at least 3 jurors are Trump voters.
They might easily acquit, on the grounds that the charges
are politically motivated, in line with a 7 year Swamp
conspiracy against him. I refer you to the Durham and Mueller reports. >Recall that the defense only needs to create doubt, not innocence.

There are parallels to the OJ Simpson trial. His lawyers diverted that
into a referendum on LAPD behavior. Trump will probably follow a
similar tactic.

I think a better comparison is to Watergate, since Trump's base is somewhat similar to Nixon's.

At the beginning of the Watergate controversy, Nixon still enjoyed pretty decent support among voters and among Republicans in Congress, many of whom thought Watergate was nothing more than a two-bit burglary blown out of proportion for political reasons only. But once the smoking gun tape became known and Nixon's involvement became obvious, his support completely
collapsed, and even Republicans in Congress abandoned him. The reason Nixon ended up resigning is that he no longer had the votes in Congress to avoid impeachment and conviction. Even normally partisan republicans were
prepared and ready to vote against him. I think there is a good chance that something similar will happen as the four trials unfold and evidence is presented in the Trump cases. Yes, there is a good chance that there will
be jury members who supported Trump in the past and probably voted for him
and may plan to vote for him again. But once his former associates start testifying against him and evidence is produced (much of which we may not
have heard about previously), including perhaps recordings of phone calls
(like the infamous call to the Ga. Secretary of State), I think the tide
will turn against him as it did against Nixon. Sure, there is a chance for
a hung jury in one or maybe even two cases, but I don't see that in all four cases.

His lawyers well understand this, which is why he will plead
not guilty all the way, despite the other rats deserting the ship.
Still, the trials will be the top story, world wide - picture Vladi
Putin and Xi Jinping glued to their teevee - and who knows
how that will affect the elections. It might actually boost him.

I am not predicting this with certainty, but it's a good bet,
if you get the right odds -

--
Rich

--

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On Tue, 31 Oct 2023 17:09:14 -0700, Rick wrote:

"RichD" wrote in message news:[email protected]...

[quoted text muted]

I think a better comparison is to Watergate, since Trump's base is
somewhat similar to Nixon's.

I have read it was a running joke for years that you could never get
anyone to admit voting for Nixon after Watergate.

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"Jethro_uk" wrote in message news:uhsut8$u5sg$[email protected]...

On Tue, 31 Oct 2023 17:09:14 -0700, Rick wrote:

"RichD" wrote in message
news:[email protected]...

[quoted text muted]

I think a better comparison is to Watergate, since Trump's base is
somewhat similar to Nixon's.

I have read it was a running joke for years that you could never get
anyone to admit voting for Nixon after Watergate.

Ironically, although I preferred Nixon in all three of his runs for the presidency, I never actually voted for him. I was too young to vote in
1960 and 1968, and while I was old enough to vote in 1972 and definitely preferred Nixon over McGovern, I just wasn't motivated enough to vote that year. The Watergate break-in had already taken place a few months before
the election, but it pretty much had no effect on the election at all.

--

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