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https://floppingaces.net/most-wanted/316-and-counting-j-d-vances-quiet- march-to-the-presidency/
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Why voter registration by party matters, and what it tells us about how
voters view issues, candidates, and worldviews with enough clarity to see
the future three years out.
Much has changed in the political world since Donald Trump took office in January, but one thing that has remained constant is the steady drumbeat
of Democrat registration losses � over a million net toward the GOP per my
June report:
https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Srke!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto :good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post- media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fb0f9a6c3-23c1-4239-967b- 863bd2b9732a_896x1296.jpeg
This research had made its rounds, including when I went on Sean Spicer�s
show to discuss the magnitude of every single state tracking registration
by party becoming more favorable to Republicans since November.
Sometime soon, pundits will be trotting out the latest polls showing
whatever outcomes they�re paid to show. Midterm races are much more
volatile and subject to the whims of political science and decades of
history, but rest assured, registration by party is the best way to
determine voter sentiment and the trajectory of future races, especially Presidential ones. How we will know if the One Big Beautiful Bill Act is popular or unpopular? Easy � by watching registrations in the key states.
If they run hard left, the bill and other relevant actions are not going
over well with the electorate. If they run hard right, then the opposite
it true, and the administration is popular. That gives coattails to others running under the brand.
For those of you new to this page and questioning my methodology � this is
how my 2024 predictions went:
Now that all states (as well as separate electoral votes awarded by
district) have been called, let it be known I was a perfect 56 out of 56,
with my call of 312 electoral votes for Trump and 226 for Harris standing
the test of time and the capacity of humans to manipulate election
results.
This model is going to be most relevant for the 2028 Presidential race. I
will, of course, reference the registration data for critical House races
next fall, but may vary in my predictions based on more immediate factors.
For the presidential modeling, the assumption is J.D. Vance as GOP
nominee, versus a generic Democrat, such as Gavin Newsom. Without further
ado, let�s get started on the map of 56 races (50 states, Washington,
D.C., and the five split electoral districts of Maine and Nebraska). This
will be streamlined into two easy-to-read maps, and yes, my projections
combine proprietary analytics and my own researched knowledge of each
state�s capacity to produce a set number of counterfeit (stuffed) ballots.
If you want to take a crack at that last statement, you wouldn�t be the
first.
Map One � Safe States and Leaner States
https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!CWRa!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto :good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post- media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fbaf64867-acc3-4c5e-9c58- 57bb3ff0bf30_966x700.jpeg
Some consider safe states to have margins of 10 or 12 points. I put mine
at 8 points, because it makes it easier to consolidate by margin tiers,
and 8 is a solid enough margin to be safe in less volatile races, such as quadrennial presidential races (my safe threshold is greater for the 2026 forecast thanks to midterm volatility). Those shaded in solid red or solid
blue will go to Vance or the Democrat, respectively, by at least 8 points,
and are therefore not worth spending energy gambling on or theorizing
about. Those come out to an electoral edge of 219 to 120 for Vance.
Florida is not competitive, and is over 200,000 registrations redder than
it was when Trump carried it by 13.1% last fall. You�re looking at a mid-
teens blowout, and better yet, no Republican has ever carried Miami-Dade
County and lost a presidential election, and it has flipped to a GOP
advantage since the election. I care about it because it has direct
correlation to the industrial working class states going back many
decades.
https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!vUsG!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto :good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post- media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F988065cf-b9e1-429b-9dba- c5bb0da15c4b_966x534.jpeg
Iowa, after voter roll maintenance, has also continued its GOP
registration progression, and will remain in blowout territory, likely
coming to resemble Missouri if this pace keeps up. As you read on you�ll
see the importance of this sustained trend:
https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!eltg!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto :good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post- media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fecb834e8-fb07-4d8c-808d- 7b81b792ea44_966x524.jpeg
Rounding out safe electoral votes, I find it unlikely for Rhode Island to
make it inside the leaner zone of 8 points, although it is on a GOP registration trend like the rest of New England.
For leaner states, we add six more, with these four going to the Democrat:
� New York (28)
� Illinois (19)
� Colorado (10)
� Maine Statewide (2)
And these two going for Vance:
� North Carolina (16)
� Arizona (11)
Illinois doesn�t register by party but mirrors the movement of the rest of
the Midwest, which is right-trending. It is likely to approach the safe-
leaner threshold at this rate, especially if urban shifting keeps up. New
York, Colorado, and Maine Statewide show a slight GOP lean after a
Republican shift in the 2024 election, and while the latter is already in
the leaner category, New York and Colorado could be heading there as well.
They won�t flip, but they�ll tighten. New York inside 8 points all but guarantees a national popular vote win and the likelihood other key states
will follow its shift.
Arizona is good to go for Vance (likely at 7%+), who will have no trouble picking up the finicky Maricopa LDS vote, based on continued registration
gains in every county since November:
https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!iMDz!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto :good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post- media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fad3f336b-fe2c-4b17-bd8f- 6e3235e621f9_966x548.jpeg
Likewise, all 100 counties in North Carolina are redder (or less blue)
than they were in November, and it is making its way into leaner territory
(5% plus):
https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!yCsV!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto :good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post- media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F0e8f44ee-46e3-4428-8d2d- 5d90daed38ce_966x516.jpeg
The score after the safe and leaner states is 246 to 179 for Vance. Any
person with a basic knowledge of presidential elections should be able to
peg these 45 races.
Map Two � Decisive States and Fringe Flips
From the logical starting point of the true contest, Vance needs just 24 electoral votes to stitch up the race. This should tell you exactly why we
are pissed off about the botched 2020 Census and the fact that the
Republican nominee should be able to knock over Georgia, call it a night,
and walk right into the Oval Office.
I spotted four states that made it into my leaners category late in the campaign last year that could have gone to Trump under the right
circumstances (namely, a blowout). They were Virginia, Minnesota, New
Mexico, and New Hampshire. The campaign expressed interest in them all simultaneously, likely after a round of bullish polling. This time around,
as things stand today, we can add New Jersey to that list, evident by
party registration and the 2024 shift to a paltry Harris +5.9% margin.
Out of those five, I think the most likely to flip is New Hampshire; it
has solid election laws, no Automatic Voter Registration, a continuing GOP registration trend, and an affluent voter population in the south that
will likely gravitate toward Vance�s more finished political disposition
(in short, less reason to act offended). New Hampshire is heavily impacted
by independents swinging a relatively low vote count, and always votes
left of its registration index; therefore I could pull New Hampshire back
in if things change, but for now, it�s next up for four GOP electoral
votes and the first win of the state since 2000. This puts Vance at 250.
https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!W0B- !,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsub stack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F5a33ac64-7fe9-4ba6- ad4a-9feefb453f94_966x556.jpeg
Here is how I see the other four fringe flips playing out, plus Nebraska�s
2nd Congressional District:
--
November 5, 2024 - Congratulations President Donald Trump. We look
forward to America being great again.
We live in a time where intelligent people are being silenced so that
stupid people won't be offended.
Every day is an IQ test. Some pass, some, not so much.
Thank you for cleaning up the disasters of the 2008-2017, 2020-2024 Obama
/ Biden / Harris fiascos, President Trump.
Under Barack Obama's leadership, the United States of America became the
The World According To Garp. Obama sold out heterosexuals for Hollywood
queer liberal democrat donors.
--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
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