XPost: misc.invest.stocks, alt.politics.economics, alt.fan.rush-limbaugh
XPost: sac.politics, talk.politics.guns
I will now depart from normal C&C practice, and make a calculated leap of speculation with potentially vast implications. But recent evidence
demands it. Yesterday, ZeroHedge ran a story headlined, �Centene Crashes
Most On Record, Sparks Selloff In Managed Care Stocks.� This is not good
news. It could be awful.
https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!aiV- !,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsub stack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fae193e08-5130-4d07- b89b-7c64d3da26ed_1307x625.png
The managed care industry got carpet-bombed yesterday, after Centene Corporation, one of the largest health insurers in the U.S., suffered the
worst single-day stock drop in its history�crashing up to 40% after
yanking its 2025 guidance. The crash was caused by devastating new
actuarial data showing that Centene�s Affordable Care Act (Obamacare)
enrollees are sicker, costlier, and fewer than expected, especially in 22 states where Centene holds significant market share.
The company now faces an unexpected $1.8 billion hit to its 2025 earnings, triggering immediate Wall Street downgrades and a sector-wide investor
panic. UnitedHealth had already slashed its forecast weeks earlier and
replaced its CEO. Now, analysts warn that the Obamacare risk pool is unraveling, with spiking Medicaid costs and mispriced premiums dragging
down the entire industry. Bluntly, insurers had bet on healthy growth� but
have hemorrhaging patients instead.
Centene Corporation is one of the largest health insurance providers in
the United States, specializing in government-sponsored programs like
Medicaid, Medicare Advantage, and Affordable Care Act (ACA) marketplace
plans. Headquartered in St. Louis, Centene serves over 28 million members (about a tenth of the entire country), primarily low-income and vulnerable populations. Its rapid rise came from aggressively expanding into public
health contracts across dozens of states, making it a bellwether for the broader managed care industry. In short, Centene is a key pillar of the federalized U.S. healthcare safety net.
But the company�s explanations made the hair on the back of my neck stand
up. They cited two �unexpected� developments. First, morbidity (sickness
and permanent disability) is rocketing upwards. Seon, at the same time,
their insured pools are shriveling. The loss of enrollees is, presumably, because of excess death. Why else would very sick people drop off free or heavily subsidized insurance rolls?
Centene�s clients are not typical MAHA folks who might be fleeing ACA for non-traditional healthcare. They are folks captured by government
healthcare.
Centene�s customers are possibly the most heavily jab-propagandized
populations on planet Earth. Its core customer base includes Medicaid recipients, ACA exchange enrollees, and Medicare Advantage members. I.e., seniors and low-income, working-age folks. These are precisely the
populations that faced the most aggressive vaccine outreach, were most
subject to institutional mandates and incentives, and had the fewest
options to resist or opt out.
Medicaid recipients were often required or heavily pressured to get
vaccinated in order to keep jobs, access care, or participate in other
public programs. ACA �marketplace� enrollees, many of whom fall into the working-poor category, were heavily targeted by state-level campaigns. And Medicare Advantage members �primarily older adults� were at the front of
the vaccine rollout line, with near-total uptake among those over 65.
If a long-term adverse event signal were associated with mass vaccination, Centene�s risk pool would necessarily be disproportionately exposed to
that signal. Consider that with rapidly rising morbidity, shrinking
enrollment, and a $1.8B actuarial shock �i.e., future forecasts of the
same or worse� the implications become uncomfortably plausible.
The fact that Centene had to suddenly withdraw guidance �not revise, not adjust, but yank it entirely� and instead report a devastating $1.8
billion projected hole, based on new data from its auditors, suggests the
trend was recent and sharp, not gradual. The scope or scale was
unexpected� possibly exponential. Their previous assumptions were suddenly falsified in an astonishingly short timeframe.
That means the underlying risk landscape shifted materially, and fast.
But even that unsettling news wasn�t what turned my blood to icy sludge.
It was another dot that snapped right into place. On June 29th, I ran a different story, at that time describing a happy DOGE success story. The
story was about the federal government�s new plan to claw back 50% of fraudulent Social Security overpayments, a welcome development. Here�s the thing: the clawbacks hadn�t started yet. But in my optimism, I decorated
the story with this graph, which showed the largest drop-off in Social
Security payments in history, starting this year:
https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!XEY0!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto :good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post- media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F17962488-600b-40d9-9974- 899e5e1341b1_1322x720.png
So, this morning, as I considered Centene�s disaster story, my lawyer�s
brain automatically clicked back to that surprising Social Security graph.
Now, don�t get me wrong. It absolutely could be improved waste, fraud, and abuse tracking, as I�d supposed on June 29th. But � I was just guessing.
The Administration hasn�t taken any victory laps claiming that
historically reduced Social Security payments were the fruits of DOGE
labor. Not officially or even unofficially. I was just trying to connect
some dots.
But � what if there�s another explanation? What if the historic downward
spike in Social Security payouts is because � there are suddenly a lot
fewer seniors?
I don�t want to make these kinds of connections. But after years of
litigation training, I can�t help it. The Social Security chart is
evidence that reinforces the Centene bombshell� a massive, actuarially
driven revelation of sudden and unexpectedly high morbidity and shrinking insured populations in Medicaid and the ACA exchanges. Two entirely
separate systems. Two different populations. One unmistakable pattern:
rapidly shrinking rolls of government-dependent individuals, precisely as healthcare costs suddenly explode.
If large numbers of Centene�s clients are disappearing, and Social
Security payouts are plummeting simultaneously, it�s not just plausible,
it�s even likely that we�re seeing the same people vanish from two systems
at once. Unlike the health insurance market, Service Corporation
International (SCI), America�s largest provider of funeral services, cremations, and cemeteries, has climbed over 109% since 2021, and the
latest trendline shows a renewed climb into 2025.
https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!PFRz!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto :good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post- media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F82c8c3ff-12a1-4b0b-bb92- badd29dece6f_1300x648.png
Carriage Services (CSV), another major player in the deathcare industry,
is up an eye-watering 163% since the jab rollout started.
https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!3oeq!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto :good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post- media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fb7315d58-00cc-402d-b2df- 9f2de650014b_1300x654.png
If we were searching for the early warning signs of an iatrogenic
catastrophe on a national scale, this is exactly what it would look like.
In other words, if a significant portion of the population experienced subclinical injury or long-term health destabilization from a medical intervention (say, inflammation, clotting, immune dysregulation), then
you�d expect a lag. Not immediate death, but a multi-year, slow-motion collapse, with inflection points stabbing when the weakest systems start
to give out.
Years 2 to 4 post-intervention is prime time for that kind of morbidity to begin translating into mortality� especially in already-vulnerable
populations like elderly, disabled, and immunocompromised.
So the sudden 6-month drop in Social Security payouts now, in 2025, is consistent with wave-one fatal outcomes starting to manifest en masse. And
it matches Centene�s sudden and unexpected announcement, and the deathcare stocks acting like they�ve struck gold.
Anecdotally, many independent public health watchers (myself included)
have noticed a recent uptick in sudden and unexpected deaths and
disabilities. Just yesterday, one of my high-profile, out-of-town
mediations with a $100-billion hospital canceled on short notice, because
the hospital�s tall building lawyer experienced a severe cardiac problem.
That kind of thing maybe happened once in my pre-covid career. Now,
everybody�s like, okay, let�s check our calendars for the reschedule.
Here are some eerily similar headlines from just within the last two days, without even trying:
https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!lLFI!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto :good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post- media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F8c9a5d71-f6b4-4bcf-93d7- 86ed76530263_1480x1483.png
Folks, those four examples are nothing. It�s almost not even fair to use
them, since showing only four suggests some sort of outer limit. There�s
no limit.
Before the pandemic, the phrase �Died Suddenly� carried a strong,
terrifying narrative charge. It was media catnip. It wasn�t just a passive phrase; it was a hook. A mystery. The beginning of a story, not the end of
a tragic but boring happenstance.
Think back to how the media used to treat these cases. We�d see two-part headlines like:
�Tragedy strikes small town as beloved coach collapses during morning run�community demands answers.�
�Young banker dies suddenly after flu-like illness�family searching for
cause.�
�Rising star�s unexpected death sparks medical questions.�
But now, the same headlines are clipped, containing just the first part. Soandso Died Suddenly. The End.
Before, there�d be a follow-up. A human-interest angle. Sometimes a
medical explainer. Often, a speculative medical deep-dive. And in the pre- covid press, the phrase �died suddenly� was usually accompanied by details
or at least pursued by the journalist. It was a white elephant of a
disruption, and disruptions invited investigation.
But now, �Died Suddenly� is the resolution. The period at the end of a
SADS sentence. The dismissal of communities demanding answers, the disconnection of families searching for causes, and the terminal station
for medical curiosity. No why, no how, no autopsy results. Just a shell of
a statement �it�s just SADS again, mind the heat while gardening� and then
the news feed scrolls on.
The media has transitioned from Agatha Christie Investigates to Kafka
Press Release.
https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!4Rbi!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto :good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post- media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F03824356-2645-414d-b8c8- 749eb1b3cc46_655x300.png
The continuing paucity of any official or media interest in these kinds of klaxon-blaring population signals (Centene, Social Security, deathcare
stocks) is devilishly frustrating. But there are some signs of hope. For
one, after a mysterious two-year rhetorical hiatus, the phrases �died
suddenly� and �died unexpectedly� have returned to the journalistic
lexicon. For nearly two years, those phrases were scrubbed out, replaced
with sterile euphemisms like �medical event,� �passed away peacefully,� or
the crowd-favorite no cause of death provided.
Maybe they think we�ve grown accustomed to it, like a background hum; but either way, the events are easier to find now. (At one point, it got so
bad we�d resorted to searching the GoFundMe pages.) At least that phase is over. It�s just harder to talk about it now, since sudden deaths have
become so troublingly commonplace.
I cannot help but shake the sense that we are quickly approaching an
undeniable inflection point when someone will be forced to confront the obvious. Disappearing Social Security recipients and ACA enrollees aren�t something easily swept under the rug. Real money is involved; not even pandemic-era money. Think bigger. Much bigger.
And, Heaven help me for even mentioning this, but my mind keeps swiveling
back to the internet-infamous 2010 Deagle Report, that terrifying and mysterious spreadsheet coldly predicting in hard numbers a massive
depopulation event this year �2025� an unsourced but MIC-linked document
that has been subject to more obfuscation, disinformation, misinformation, false flags, urban legends, careless chatter, and plausible denials than perhaps any other single document in history.
I once took a deep-dive down its rabbit hole, and the Deagle Report is
both much less interesting and also much more interesting than any of the
hot takes realize.
It�s kind of crazy. Here we are in 2025, facing sudden, unexplained
population shrinkage in the most medically advanced nations, insurance
data (Centene) screaming morbidity, Federal transfer programs (Social
Security) quietly purging beneficiaries, excess deaths still statistically elevated but narratively invisible, fertility rates in freefall, turbo
cancers, squiggly white blood clots and unnameable anomolies reported by morticians, SADS, an explosion of anecdotal evidence, and most damning of
all: official apathy.
For those of you who have any idea what on Earth I am talking about, let
me know in the comments whether you�d like to see a special Conspiracy
Theory Edition on the Deagle Report, and whether you think that could have general interest. Beware, it will consume an entire roundup.
In conclusion, we who remain live to fight another day. The unwanted duty
falls to we, the fortunate, to bear witness, to speak when others are
silent, and to ensure that the architects of this unfolding disaster are
all finally run to ground and hung as high as Haman (after fair trials, of course). We must ensure that this slow-motion iatrogenic catastrophe is
neither memory-holed nor mythologized.
The truth will be the reckoning.
Read more
https://www.coffeeandcovid.com/p/sudden-and-unexpected-thursday-july
https://floppingaces.net/most-wanted/from-government-healthcare-to- graveyards-the-real-covid-fallout-just-hit-wall-street/
--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)