ACUS11 KWNS 020653
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 020652
TXZ000-NMZ000-020845-
Mesoscale Discussion 2427
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1252 AM CST Mon Nov 02 2026
Areas affected...Far eastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle
Concerning...Tornado Watch 700...
Valid 020652Z - 020845Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 700 continues.
SUMMARY...The threat for severe gusts and brief tornadoes continues
across portions of far eastern New Mexico, and will become focused
across the Texas Panhandle through the early morning hours.
Localized expansions/extensions of WW 700 may be needed.
DISCUSSION...MRMS and GOES IR trends over the past hour have
exhibited transient intensification of convective elements within a
broken line of convection from far southwest KS into the TX
Panhandle and far eastern NM. The limited durability of the stronger
cells/line segments is most likely attributable to the residual warm
layer noted on the 04 UTC AMA sounding, which is likely more
prominent than depicted by recent mesoanalysis and model guidance.
However, large-scale ascent continues to spread east over the warm
sector, which will promote additional thunderstorm development over
the next few hours. Given these considerations, periodic
intensification of embedded cells and segments within the convective
band will likely continue across the TX Panhandle through the early
morning hours.
Regional VWPs continue to sample strong (45-50 knot) wind shear
within the warm sector, though low-level curvature appears to be
weakening across the central TX Panhandle ahead of the line per the
AMA VWP. This kinematic environment will continue to support
organized convection, but the tornado risk may become dependent on
achieving, and sustaining, meridionally-oriented line segments. This
potential appears greatest along and south of the I-40 corridor over
the next couple of hours as convection developing east of Clovis, NM
spreads east/northeast into a somewhat wider and more buoyant warm
sector (compared to locations further north).
..Moore.. 11/02/2026
...Please see
https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!-87w4z-xKOV1GU2YfJHqAka2QraHdrRfqrLyjI6yJy1mi8QlR5Di_VlSoY029UGwlB6i9chELbSAE2n1p8cpXuFFKq0$ for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...ABQ...
LAT...LON 34070335 35100257 36060179 36250157 36390114 36300079
35990066 35560075 34930112 34210178 33940227 33840260
33820295 33840319 33880329 34070335
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-125 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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--- scorpsmtpd
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