ACUS11 KWNS 020215
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 020214
NMZ000-020345-
Mesoscale Discussion 2425
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0814 PM CST Sun Nov 01 2026
Areas affected...Parts of northeastern New Mexico
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 699...
Valid 020214Z - 020345Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 699
continues.
SUMMARY...The risk for severe wind gusts and gradually increasing
tornado potential is expected across parts of northeastern New
Mexico. A downstream watch is forthcoming.
DISCUSSION...A line of thunderstorms is tracking eastward across
parts of northeastern NM, with periodic increases in intensity and organization. Over the next hour or two, this activity will continue
moving into a corridor of lower 60s F dewpoints -- contributing to
1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE (per HRRR mesoanalysis). This relative
increase in buoyancy, combined with a strengthening low-level
jet/mass response (50 kt flow at 1 km AGL per FDX), should support a
continued increase in severe-wind potential. Additionally, an enlarged/clockwise-curved low-level hodograph (around 250 m2/s2 0-1
km SRH per FDX VWP) will also support increasing tornado potential
with any embedded mesovorticies/supercells.
A downstream watch is forthcoming for this area, along with much of
eastern NM into the TX/OK Panhandles.
..Weinman.. 11/02/2026
...Please see
https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!4gwGJ58vAuc0_9HXZd1hVJ11spMpN0UJsztGcRZJN-6ydS1NzTvoJ5DErpYG4quQfwhaJuHZh0PQIVS8KjE5stLxJC4$ for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...ABQ...
LAT...LON 35060462 35310464 35560458 35980429 36210419 36400391
36470366 36410333 36180315 35570323 34960353 34760402
34840440 35060462
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-125 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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--- scorpsmtpd
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