ACUS11 KWNS 301839
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 301838
TXZ000-302045-
Mesoscale Discussion 2420
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0138 PM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026
Areas affected...parts of mid/upper Texas coastal areas
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 301838Z - 302045Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...Shower and thunderstorm activity overspreading the mid to
upper Texas coastal plain through 3-5 PM CDT may be accompanied by
low probabilities for a brief/weak tornado, mainly near immediate
coastal areas.
DISCUSSION...Downstream of a weakening mid-level cyclonic vorticity
center slowly migrating north-northeast of the lower Rio Grande
Valley, a focused area of low-level forcing for ascent, supported by
weak low-level convergence and warm advection, is overspreading
middle Texas coastal areas near Palacios. Preceding a subsident, lower/mid-tropospheric dry slot, moist thermodynamic profiles
characterized by weak conditional instability have been supporting a northeastward spreading area of mostly weak convection. However,
this has included discrete cells with weak to occasionally modest
embedded low-level updraft rotation offshore of coastal areas, where near-surface buoyancy is boosted by lower/mid 70s surface dew
points, in the presence of small, but clockwise-curved, low-level
hodographs.
With the progression of the larger-scale mid-level troughing, this
environment may develop closer to mid/upper Texas coastal areas
between Palacios and Galveston over the next few hours accompanied
by some risk for a brief, weak tornado. But, this activity appears
unlikely to spread inland beyond immediate coastal areas, where a
slightly cooler/drier boundary-layer will probably be maintained.
..Kerr/Smith.. 10/30/2026
...Please see
https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!78EzgTnLp-sg2dN2_Txxw9K_cxwgfiToEkRzUSp6rOLIpoNmw5lJvkoNpJWoqVVLWKqIUJxCuZc0UkjgNxmQYuNSQJ8$ for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...HGX...CRP...
LAT...LON 28629654 29099523 29169497 28679490 28319624 28629654
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
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--- scorpsmtpd
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