430
AXNT20 KNHC 010858
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Fri May 1 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A strong late-season cold front
will emerge off the Texas and Louisiana coast this evening. The
front will reach from northern Florida to the Bay of Campeche Sat,
then from central Florida to the Yucatan peninsula on Sun before
stalling over the southeastern Gulf Mon. The front will be
followed by fresh to strong north to northeast winds, with winds
reaching gale-force offshore Tampico and Veracruz early on Sat,
and Sat afternoon and evening near Veracruz. Frequent gusts to
gale-force are forecast in the NW Gulf including the coastal
waters. Seas are forecast to build to around 14 ft in the area of
strongest winds through the weekend. Mariners are advised to keep
up with the latest forecasts. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS
FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough is confined to inland Africa. The ITCZ extends
from 04N16W to 03N35W to the coast of Brazil near 00N50W.
Scattered moderate convection is ongoing within 180 nm of the axis
west of 35W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for details on a
developing Gale Warning in the western Gulf.

A stationary front extends from across the NE Gulf coastal waters
to along the southern Louisiana coast to the central Texas coast.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are near and just
south of the boundary. Otherwise, 1013 mb high pressure is
positioned in the SE Gulf near Key West, Florida with a ridge
extending west-northwestward. Moderate to fresh E-SE winds are
found south of 25N and west of 87W, along with 3-5 ft seas. NE-E
15 kt winds are within the SW Louisiana and Texas coastal waters
along with 2-4 ft seas. Mainly gentle variable winds are across
the remainder of the basin, with 1-3 ft seas. Areas of smoke due
to agricultural and forest fires in southern Mexico are limiting
visibility to 3-5 miles over the far western Gulf and along the
west and northwest Yucatan coasts in the Bay of Campeche.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds will prevail over the
western Gulf with light to gentle winds over the eastern Gulf
through this afternoon, locally strong near Yucatan this evening.
A strong late-season cold front will emerge off the Texas and
Louisiana coast this evening. The front will reach from northern
Florida to the Bay of Campeche Sat, then from central Florida to
the Yucatan peninsula on Sun before stalling over the southeastern
Gulf Mon. The front will be followed by fresh to strong north to
northeast winds, with winds reaching gale-force offshore Tampico
and Veracruz early on Sat, and Sat afternoon and evening near
Veracruz. Frequent gusts to gale-force are forecast in the NW Gulf
including the coastal waters. Seas are forecast to build to
around 14 ft in the area of strongest winds through the weekend.
Mariners are advised to keep up with the latest forecasts. Marine
conditions should significantly improve early next week.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The pressure gradient between 1014 mb high pressure just east of
the Central Bahamas and 1007 mb low pressure over northern
Colombia is sustaining fresh to locally strong trades off northern
Colombia and NW Venezuela, including the Gulf of Venezuela. Seas
are about 5-7 ft in these areas. Moderate to fresh easterly trades
are found elsewhere from 11N to 15N, along with 4-6 ft seas.
Fresh to strong E-SE winds are in the Gulf of Honduras, along with
4-6 ft seas. Gentle to moderate easterly trade winds prevail
across the remainder of the basin with seas of 2-4 ft, except 1-3
ft in the lee of Cuba. Scattered moderate convection is occurring
south of 12N over the SW Caribbean, supported by a mid to upper-
level trough persisting across the NW Caribbean. Additional
moisture from there feeds into a frontal trough extending from the
central Atlantic southwestward to across Puerto Rico and the
Virgin Islands to south of Hispaniola near 15N72W.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure
north of the area and the Colombian low will support moderate to
fresh trades over the eastern and central Caribbean through Mon,
reaching strong speeds at times in the south-central Caribbean and
near the Gulf of Honduras with locally rough seas. A weakening
cold front will approach the Yucatan Channel Sun and Sun night,
stalling just north of there into Mon. This will temporarily and
slight weaken the pressure gradient and winds.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front along 31N between 76W and 1010 mb low pressure
near Jacksonville, Florida is supporting scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms north of 27N and west of 74W. 1014 mb high
pressure just east of the Central Bahamas near 25N71W extends an
east to west ridge. Mainly gentle to moderate winds prevail across
the waters west 55W with 4-7 ft seas, highest near 55W. To the
east, a dissipating cold front passes through 31N35W to 24N47W
continuing to across Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands as a
remnant trough, supporting scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms in the vicinity of the features. This front wraps
into an occluded 1003 mb low pressure area north of the waters
near 35N42W. Associated moderate to fresh SW-W winds are found
across the waters north of 23N, roughly between 30W and 50W. Seas
are 6-9 ft across this area in NW-N swell. 1017 mb high pressure
is to the southeast near 26N26W with a ridge reaching from near
the Canary Islands southwestward through the high to near 20N50W.
Gentle to moderate winds dominate the remainder of the waters
along with 4-7 ft seas in mainly NW-N swell, with locally fresh
winds from 10N to 22N between Africa and the Cabo Verde Islands.

For the forecast west of 55W, the front just north of 31N and
west of 76W will progress into the offshore waters and weaken as
it moves across the waters N and NE of the Bahamas through tonight
to E of 55W Sat. Another front will move off the northeast
Florida coast on Sat afternoon, reach from near 31N68W to near
Cape Canaveral, Florida on Sun, then stall through Mon. Low
pressure is expected to move along the front at that time. Fresh
to strong southwest winds will precede the front Sat and Sat
night. Fresh northeast to east winds will follow the front through
Mon, along with locally rough seas near 31N. The remnants of the
front should wash out Tue and Tue night with improving marine conditions.

$$
Lewitsky

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* Origin: Project Scorpio TEST (1:2320/106)