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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2288

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to [email protected] on Wed Dec 31 23:43:43 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 312343
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 312342=20
    PAZ000-NYZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-MIZ000-010415-

    Mesoscale Discussion 2288
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0542 PM CST Wed Dec 31 2025

    Areas affected...portions of northern Ohio...northwestern
    Pennsylvania and southwestern New York

    Concerning...Snow Squall=20

    Valid 312342Z - 010415Z

    SUMMARY...A snow squall may develop in the next couple of hours, and
    progress across portions of the Ohio Valley into the northern
    Appalachians through evening. A sudden onset of moderate to heavy
    snow and 15-30 mph sustained northwesterly surface winds (with
    higher gusts) will create hazardous driving conditions, including
    reduced visibility.

    DISCUSSION...A pronounced, strongly positively tilted mid-level
    trough is amplifying across the Great Lakes and is progressing
    toward the Northeast. A 100-130 kt 500-300 mb jet streak is pivoting
    around the upper trough and is poised to overspread the northern
    Appalachians over the next few hours. The approach of this jet
    streak will dynamically enhance low-level lift along a
    southeastward-moving surface cold front that is currently draped
    over southern ON to Lower MI/southern WI. This aforementioned lift
    will force a low-topped snow band along the surface cold front, amid
    a sub-freezing troposphere in the next 1-3 hours.

    While the synoptic pattern is generally favorable for snow squalls,
    steep low-level lapse rates and accompanying instability is
    currently lacking ahead of the cold front. Nonetheless, strong
    925-700 mb CAA accompanying the mid/upper-level jet streak will aid
    in the steepening of low-level lapse rates behind the cold frontal
    snow band, which may result in just enough destabilization (albeit
    very scant) to support a leading-line low-level circulation. Should
    a snow squall develop, a sudden onset of stronger northwesterly flow
    (at least 15-30 mph, with higher gusts) may accompany portions of
    the leading line, along with moderate to potentially heavy snowfall
    rates. Brief periods of appreciably reduced visibility may occur in
    stronger portions of the snow band.

    ..Squitieri.. 12/31/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9bNtA-lNc8jrpvUrowwflC-_gTMpp80EY6E-nM7nPeErXzte_GcQdkOyZtNM7MME8wc7cGdt3= _R_XwsOjikew9d2oYs$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE...DTX...IWX...

    LAT...LON 40438239 40738327 41168395 41448417 41628418 41798404
    41738328 41618266 41558193 42028082 42747908 43207814
    43187765 42837733 41927754 41017820 40577917 40428019
    40358130 40438239=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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    --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
    * Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)
  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Sep 12 21:55:48 2026
    ACUS11 KWNS 122155
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 122155
    ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-122300-

    Mesoscale Discussion 2288
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0455 PM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

    Areas affected...extreme southeast Oklahoma into southern Arkansas

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

    Valid 122155Z - 122300Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...A couple of damaging gusts are possible with the stronger
    downbursts, especially if storms can continue to merge. However, the
    severe threat should remain sparse, with a Severe Thunderstorm Watch
    issuance not expected.

    DISCUSSION...Multiple pulse cells and multicells have intensified
    over the past few hours, and are beginning to show signs of possible
    larger scale merging. If this occurs, ample evaporative cooling
    potential exists with cold pool mergers given a well-mixed boundary
    layer, characterized by 20-30 F T/Td spreads and over 1500 J/kg
    DCAPE. Damaging gusts may occur with the stronger downbursts and at
    the intersections of thunderstorm outflow boundaries. Nonetheless,
    the severe threat should remain isolated at best, and a Severe
    Thunderstorm Watch issuance is not expected.

    ..Squitieri/Smith.. 09/12/2026

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!7Mn7VMp3iYR4uO62yS5N9nbxZtdi82sVtyQKd11OHCNl9XImvxpgqfDkdebtqVOURqref-h4Yp1WBajJ-6Ca5k150oI$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...SHV...TSA...

    LAT...LON 34599526 34889376 34819258 34429200 33829175 33339192
    33129257 33069311 33199375 33989500 34599526

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH


    = = =
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    --- scorpsmtpd
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)