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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2286

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to [email protected] on Mon Dec 29 09:32:55 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 290932
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 290932=20
    MIZ000-291530-

    Mesoscale Discussion 2286
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0332 AM CST Mon Dec 29 2025

    Areas affected...Parts of Upper Michigan and far northern Lower
    Michigan

    Concerning...Heavy snow=20

    Valid 290932Z - 291530Z

    SUMMARY...Banded heavy snow with rates of 1-2 inches per hour and
    periods of blizzard conditions are expected through the morning
    hours.

    DISCUSSION...To the west/northwest of a very deep low pressure
    system (983 mb surface low over Lake Huron), substantial deep-layer
    lift is overspreading a cold, deeply saturated profile over Upper MI
    and vicinity. The combination of this lift through a deep/saturated
    DGZ and isothermal layer below will promote efficient crystal growth
    and aggregation. As as result, widespread and prolonged heavy
    snowfall rates of 1-1.5 inches per hour are expected, with even
    higher rates to around 2 inches per hour over the higher terrain and
    beneath the core of more organized banding. In addition to these
    substantial and prolonged rates, a very tight pressure gradient
    peripheral to the deep surface low and strong low-level jet
    (50-60-kt flow in the lowest 1 km AGL per MQT VWP) will promote
    40-50 mph gusts and intermittent blizzard conditions in conjunction
    with the heavy snowfall rates.

    ..Weinman.. 12/29/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5AHioYy2AuBNDyWVpzckpxvi6ca9-1DJrIUsRCuHm0XyNLZ2GuL4Lp_VGRd1RXok--7jlKZft= e40yyY1twZgGQ2tNfU$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...APX...MQT...

    LAT...LON 45458526 45558610 45788701 46168815 46508849 46718842
    46828799 46578760 46408716 46428653 46618622 46738507
    46538424 46158371 45818366 45538398 45398451 45458526=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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    --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
    * Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)
  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Sep 12 19:53:14 2026
    ACUS11 KWNS 121953
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 121952
    OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-122145-

    Mesoscale Discussion 2286
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0252 PM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

    Areas affected...southern Kansas into northwest Oklahoma

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely

    Valid 121952Z - 122145Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

    SUMMARY...Scattered storms are expected to develop after 21Z from
    the northeast Texas Panhandle into northwest Oklahoma and southwest
    Kansas. Locally damaging wind and hail will be possible.

    DISCUSSION...A surface trough and wind shift extends from the TX
    Panhandle into southwest and central KS, with a secondary
    boundary/dying outflow from northwest OK into east-central OK.
    Easterly surface winds prevail over much of southern KS and northern
    OK, with dewpoints in the upper 60s F and lower 70s F. Heating of
    this moist axis continues as well, with MLCAPE over 2500 J/kg.

    Meanwhile, very hot temperatures exist to the south of the old
    outflow from central into southwest OK, with several locations over
    105 F. Southerly winds prevail across this region, and surface
    convergence is maximized across northwest OK/eastern Panhandles and
    into southwest KS.

    Visible imagery already shows towering CU from northwest OK into
    north-central OK, with recent higher-based CU over the TX Panhandle.
    Models indicate storms developing by 21Z within this zone, with movement/additional development occurring eastward through the early
    evening.

    Shear is weak over southern areas, but does increase into KS. Given
    the steep lapse rate profiles and hot temperatures near the surface
    trough, initial high-based storms may produce severe gusts with
    multicellular storm mode. New development may propagate
    northeastward through the evening, with a few cells producing hail
    along with strong to severe gusts.

    ..Jewell/Guyer.. 09/12/2026

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!4HXSL42-OwOeUvLoGjlKVZTIkLkhUNak1ZSAAUNuPp03Bx19ZzSiyR4Lbp2WNvLW81_PczCg9vFW0Lfoc0QI-3VPqbY$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA...

    LAT...LON 35990120 36890026 37709949 38089898 38239805 38149707
    37909680 37599666 37209668 36729686 36249718 36069751
    35979779 35959794 36049814 36119852 36119894 35889970
    35630065 35740125 35990120

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


    = = =
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    --- scorpsmtpd
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)