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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2265

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to [email protected] on Mon Dec 22 09:33:11 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 220933
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 220932=20
    WIZ000-MNZ000-221330-

    Mesoscale Discussion 2265
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0332 AM CST Mon Dec 22 2025

    Areas affected...far northeast Iowa...southeast Minnesota and
    western Wisconsin.

    Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation=20

    Valid 220932Z - 221330Z

    SUMMARY...Wintry precipitation will continue this morning across the
    region. Amounts should generally remain light, but may pose some
    travel issues before temperatures warm above freezing this morning.

    DISCUSSION...Light wintry mix/freezing rain has developed across the
    region this morning in response to strong warm-air
    advection/frontogenesis in the 850-700mb layer.=20

    RAP point forecast soundings across Minnesota this morning depict
    surface temperatures generally near 0C/32F beneath 750mb, with
    wet-bulb temperatures generally a few degrees below 0C/32F within a
    region of low-level dry air. As the aforementioned precipitation
    moves into the area, precipitation may initially fall as sleet
    before transitioning to freezing rain or rain as persistent moist,
    warm-air advection warms and moistens the low level profile. Farther east/northeast, temperature profiles are colder across Wisconsin and
    should support light snow, although a mix or change to
    sleet/freezing rain/rain remains possible (especially closer to
    Minnesota) as low levels warm.

    Precipitation amounts are expected to remain generally light this
    morning. However, brief travel impacts may develop -- especially
    across Wisconsin where the colder surface temperatures reside --
    this morning before temperatures warm above 0C/32F.

    ..Marsh.. 12/22/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-JXi3oyJ5goPjRTVmrmAhGVu5wIylSZBBWIv0C7whh8yCw6RwMnMuMlhnvP33F7PlLgpgzdHK= NI4QVAfKKP2-Nv8P1k$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...ARX...MPX...

    LAT...LON 45339265 45229100 44709001 44218977 43738988 43519036
    43529113 43649190 43759288 44119383 44469455 44839478
    45239453 45329344 45339265=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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    --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
    * Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)
  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Mon Sep 7 20:53:46 2026
    ACUS11 KWNS 072053
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 072053
    NDZ000-072300-

    Mesoscale Discussion 2265
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0353 PM CDT Mon Sep 07 2026

    Areas affected...western/central North Dakota

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

    Valid 072053Z - 072300Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...A conditional severe threat may evolve this
    afternoon/evening.

    DISCUSSION...A cumulus field across northern/central North Dakota
    has become increasingly agitated this afternoon, with attempts at
    initiation. At least one tower has sustained with reflectively now
    on radar. Air mass recovery has been ongoing through the afternoon
    across this region after morning convection. Temperatures warmed
    back into the 80s to 90s along and west of a pseudo dryline/cold
    frontal boundary/surface low interface.

    Forcing for ascent is overall weak, with the vorticity max upstream
    across Montana for now, but will increase this evening with the
    increasing low-level jet. The 18z RAOB from BIS sampled a moderately
    unstable air mass with a clockwise turning hodograph and ample deep
    layer shear. Conditionally, the moderately unstable and strongly
    sheared environment would support supercells, capable of large hail,
    damaging wind, and perhaps a tornado. Trends in CAM guidance through
    the day for less and less convective signal lead to low confidence
    in the overall scenario, but, it does appear that at least isolated
    supercells may develop. This area will be monitored for watch
    potential.

    ..Thornton/Hart.. 09/07/2026

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!-U4m-gX-Dl2mmrZqLc8yua5sMJ_xv55UJDsUuw8w-cO3uUEkUenyOvI7wOpFGV3hUaV6AnqG1KS3xbYEVko2YKQO9RU$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...

    LAT...LON 48970357 48390318 48000291 47590259 47030200 46630134
    46500091 46610039 47119992 48019955 48689997 48830025
    49040095 48970357

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


    = = =
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    --- scorpsmtpd
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)