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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2264

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to [email protected] on Fri Dec 19 00:55:17 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 190055
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 190054=20
    TNZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-190230-

    Mesoscale Discussion 2264
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0654 PM CST Thu Dec 18 2025

    Areas affected...parts of the Deep South

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 642...

    Valid 190054Z - 190230Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 642 continues.

    SUMMARY...Limited tornado and strong gust threats should persist for
    at least a few more hours as broken bands of thunderstorms
    consolidate into a line, with the greatest potential across
    east-central Mississippi into western Alabama. An additional WW
    issuance is unlikely.

    DISCUSSION...Earlier supercells have largely diminished, but one is
    still ongoing in Newton County, MS. The east-central MS/western AL
    area will have the primary near-term tornado threat, owing to its
    proximity to modest but weakening buoyancy sampled by the 00Z JAN
    sounding. 5.5 to 6 C/km mid-level lapse rates in the JAN/BNA/BMX
    soundings will remain a limiting factor to more intense updrafts.
    But enlarged low-level hodographs and persistent low 60s surface dew
    points will support potential for a tornado or two. Farther
    north-northeast, faster propagation of cold front convection
    relative to the pre-frontal swath should yield consolidation into a
    QLCS that progresses towards the southern Appalachians. Strong gusts
    capable of locally damaging winds should be the main threat as
    surface-based instability becomes negligible, east and north of
    central AL where mid to upper 50s surface dew points persist.

    ..Grams/Smith.. 12/19/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9qalG_dv8LlPnH__XnZrHl2Yz7GxtD7n-Ks8aYB2Las0rDLOa1KNpW7_935Wg_YUaPkJeMT5x= DfP9_u_r-amWtWozbI$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...MRX...OHX...BMX...HUN...MOB...JAN...

    LAT...LON 32538919 32868837 33718783 34618766 35068736 35468708
    35688639 35648624 35608585 35238575 34808582 34388589
    33958607 33538627 32948704 32568752 32408794 32258830
    32538919=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH


    =3D =3D =3D
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    --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
    * Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)
  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Mon Sep 7 18:59:44 2026
    ACUS11 KWNS 071859
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 071858
    NDZ000-MTZ000-072100-

    Mesoscale Discussion 2264
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0158 PM CDT Mon Sep 07 2026

    Areas affected...eastern Montana

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

    Valid 071858Z - 072100Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...A few instances of strong to severe wind possible this
    afternoon.

    DISCUSSION...A cluster of thunderstorms moving eastward across
    central/eastern Montana has become more organized and produced gusts
    up to 59 mph. This cluster is moving into a region of more favorable
    deep layer shear for organization, however, thermodynamic profiles
    remain fairly marginal. Steepening lapse rates are steadily moving
    northward across southern Montana but fairly poor low-level lapse
    rates remain across central/northern Montana. Temperatures have
    warmed into the low to mid 70s (low 80s near the North Dakota
    border) with MLCAPE around 250-500 J/kg. Additional heating is
    likely downstream across far eastern Montana, where there is limited
    cloud cover. It remains uncertain whether this additional heating
    will be enough to support a more organized severe threat and as such
    a watch is not currently anticipated. A few strong to severe gusts
    will be possible as the line continues eastward.

    ..Thornton.. 09/07/2026

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!7T0jI7z4sjiymmTyS_vJqffi8ptGACpWsNlmtdF5FJoiTjdlwi9QSz5J5OVlIXFvGcUgiwBgwrvWj-Ke-5RLiCljADc$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...BIS...BYZ...GGW...TFX...

    LAT...LON 46230818 46280501 46530442 46920410 47480398 48030419
    48430457 48550537 48380688 47560904 47500908 46640897
    46210862 46230818

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH


    = = =
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    --- scorpsmtpd
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)