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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2260

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to [email protected] on Thu Dec 18 16:44:47 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 181644
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 181644=20
    ILZ000-KYZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-181845-

    Mesoscale Discussion 2260
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1044 AM CST Thu Dec 18 2025

    Areas affected...Eastern Missouri into southwest Illinois and
    western Kentucky

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 181644Z - 181845Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...A band of low-topped convection will proceed eastward
    through early afternoon and may result in sporadic wind damage
    across eastern Missouri into southwest Illinois into western
    Kentucky. Watch issuance is not expected due to the overall limited thermodynamic environment.

    DISCUSSION...Latest radar imagery from KLSX shows a well-organized,
    but shallow, band of convection that has developed along a strong
    synoptic cold front. Latest HRRR/RAP forecast soundings are showing
    minimal MLCAPE (around 100 J/kg) that is confined to the lowest few
    kilometers where lapse rates near 700 mb are steep enough to allow
    for some convective augmentation of precipitation along the front.
    Despite the very poor thermodynamic environment, the KLSX VWP
    depicts 40-50 knot flow within the lowest kilometer, which may mix
    to the surface within the convective band. Although lightning
    production will likely be minimal, sporadic damaging wind gusts
    appear possible with this line (gusts up to 40-45 knots have already
    been observed associated with the front). The limited thermodynamic
    environment is not forecast to substantially improve through the
    afternoon, so watch issuance is not expected with this activity.

    ..Moore/Gleason.. 12/18/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9K5KI7mCM2-4PVExzzlbsyFLBVFcOTQX-EhlkNQyn3XoopHv927TOESdkRz6b5W3NZ20ckyHR= n220RzYXmLORidDGi8$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...MEG...LSX...SGF...

    LAT...LON 38368822 37058867 36568923 36488994 36529068 36659115
    36869160 37139182 37339185 38119111 39129056 39879034
    40098991 39938921 39648855 39258817 38368822=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH


    =3D =3D =3D
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    --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
    * Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)
  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Mon Sep 7 01:42:14 2026
    ACUS11 KWNS 070141
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 070141
    MTZ000-070345-

    Mesoscale Discussion 2260
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0841 PM CDT Sun Sep 06 2026

    Areas affected...parts of north central Montana

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 662...

    Valid 070141Z - 070345Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 662
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Thunderstorms may still intensify as they approach areas
    to the southwest and west of Glasgow through 9-10 PM MDT,
    accompanied by increasing potential for large hail and localized
    severe wind gusts.

    DISCUSSION...Storms thus far have remained fairly small in size and
    of modest intensity, with cells tending to propagate with the south-southwesterly cloud-bearing layer mean flow (on the order of
    30 kt). Through 03-04Z, ongoing cells to the west through
    north-northwest of Lewistown may still acquire more substantively
    unstable updraft inflow as they propagate into areas near and
    southwest through west of Glasgow, where post-frontal surface dew
    points remain in the lower to mid 60s F, perhaps supporting CAPE as
    high as 2000 J/kg.

    ..Kerr.. 09/07/2026

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!4aoBkVCOhhcqn9Whq8VKtpROb57Pm9M0sZp79axSJVUQQiBKiF8qDD91YFQFfXH1-GnwAScPocUC8TGLgwV5plrMiTg$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...GGW...TFX...

    LAT...LON 47511061 48420978 48920906 48720797 47470889 46870980
    46771043 47511061

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


    = = =
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    --- scorpsmtpd
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)