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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2244

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to [email protected] on Tue Dec 2 07:14:49 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 020714
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 020714=20
    FLZ000-021115-

    Mesoscale Discussion 2244
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0114 AM CST Tue Dec 02 2025

    Areas affected...the coastal Florida Panhandle

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 020714Z - 021115Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Mini-supercells may eventually move ashore, affecting
    primarily coastal counties of the Florida Panhandle. A brief tornado
    cannot be ruled out later tonight.

    DISCUSSION...Radar shows multiple small supercells over the
    northeastern Gulf of America, ahead of a cold front and along a warm
    front. The warm front is currently offshore as can be seen with
    backed surface winds over land and temperatures in the 60s F.=20

    Instability is currently weak, with minimal lightning detected even
    with the offshore activity. Conditionally, weak tornadoes may still
    occur assuming the warm front moves ashore.

    Recent hourly pressure falls over 1 mb indicate good column warming
    and likely erosion of the cooler air mass. Over the next few hours,
    surface winds will gradually veer, with temperatures likely jumping
    along the coast. Low-level shear will remain quite strong, again
    with instability being the limiting factor. However, any supercells
    that move onshore coincident with the warm front may result in
    localized brief tornado risk over a limited amount of inland area.

    ..Jewell/Mosier.. 12/02/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6iuzW7hlJQK4LAILDIuJrRd5L001Z0NjGmNmSIi8Tzu2Je82_oTsPl7QP19DvdoEsXs_V3wdw= f8Pke4ngwN8G8Eejxk$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...TAE...MOB...

    LAT...LON 30388653 30608620 30568581 30438497 30408437 30348416
    29948418 29528501 29598536 29938555 30158590 30248608
    30388653=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH


    =3D =3D =3D
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  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Sep 5 20:05:52 2026
    ACUS11 KWNS 052003
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 052003
    NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-052130-

    Mesoscale Discussion 2244
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0303 PM CDT Sat Sep 05 2026

    Areas affected...Central/eastern NC into parts of SC and northeast
    GA

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 656...657...

    Valid 052003Z - 052130Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 656, 657
    continues.

    SUMMARY...The threat for scattered damaging winds and isolated hail
    will continue through late afternoon.

    DISCUSSION...A broken band of thunderstorms is ongoing this
    afternoon from central/northern NC into Upstate SC and far northeast
    GA. Somewhat stronger deep-layer flow associated with an MCV is
    spreading over NC, with weaker flow in place farther south and west.
    Strong heating downstream of the ongoing storms has resulted in
    substantial destabilization and steepening of low-level lapse rates,
    which will continue to support potential for downbursts and loosely
    organized outflow-driven clusters through late afternoon. Scattered
    damaging winds will continue to be the primary hazard, with isolated
    hail also possible.

    ..Dean.. 09/05/2026

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!-Ann9NyhjJe3Ox3DPkc3q7cchpT-1MSWo1RroE-945SoQMg9R76IGEGX9WpCDP8WmCfPy5-EQZRrOstCIXsjKDKoQ6c$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...CAE...GSP...FFC...

    LAT...LON 33738194 33698309 34518349 34778168 35118057 35467986
    35767926 36097813 36197697 36087648 35667624 35227622
    34617677 34127764 33907928 33758085 33738194

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


    = = =
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    --- scorpsmtpd
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)