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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2239

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to [email protected] on Sat Nov 29 16:43:02 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 291642
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 291642=20
    ILZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-292145-

    Mesoscale Discussion 2239
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1042 AM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

    Areas affected...parts of IL...southeast IA...and far northeast MO

    Concerning...Heavy snow=20

    Valid 291642Z - 292145Z

    SUMMARY...Primary bands of moderate to sporadic heavy snow should
    pivot from south-central across southeast Iowa, and persist across
    much of central into northern Illinois through this afternoon. Rates
    around 1 inch per hour should occasionally occur.

    DISCUSSION...Long-duration snowfall event will persist through the
    afternoon, shifting eastward to the northeast of a surface cyclone
    near the western Kansas City Metro Area. Ongoing heavy snow band
    across south-central IA should largely pivot across southeast IA and
    perhaps expand as the strongest mid-level DCVA shifts across eastern
    IA this afternoon. Farther east, the persistent low-level warm
    conveyor will maintain a broad swath of moderate snow across central
    to northern IL. While the bulk of the ascent should remain beneath
    the dendritic growth zone centered around 550 mb, strengthening
    mid-level DCVA should foster sporadic bursts of heavier snow.
    Snowfall rates within these regimes should occasionally reach 1
    in/hr.

    ..Grams.. 11/29/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_CCyRvLHXmWxuk7PUQx9H-RecUQLSYv8Iw7Oxq6O6qfe0THySHtUbs98Hpy5E15Un_WGyovZ1= xGZbi2_9MmyXSNkEpw$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...

    LAT...LON 40109261 40519334 41149351 41689305 41839219 41769124
    41148796 40248759 39418782 39118851 40109261=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)
  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Sep 5 05:49:20 2026
    ACUS11 KWNS 050549
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 050548
    MNZ000-IAZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-NEZ000-050745-

    Mesoscale Discussion 2239
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1248 AM CDT Sat Sep 05 2026

    Areas affected...Eastern Dakotas...Far Southwest MN...Far Northeast
    NE

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

    Valid 050548Z - 050745Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated severe thunderstorms capable of large hail are
    possible across the eastern Dakota tonight.

    DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms coverage and intensity continues to
    increase across the eastern Dakotas. These thunderstorms are
    developing within a zone of low to mid-level warm-air advection
    along the eastern periphery of an extensive low-level jet stretching
    from western KS through the western Dakotas. The airmass across the
    region is moderately to strongly unstable, with mesoanalysis
    estimating MUCAPE ranging from 3500 J/kg over southeast SD to 1500
    J/kg across southeast ND. This buoyancy gradient matches what was
    observed by the regional 00Z soundings, where OAX sampled over 5000
    J/kg of MUCAPE while ABR and BIS were closer to 2000 J/kg. A belt of
    moderate to strong effective bulk shear extends from western ND into
    southeast SD as well.

    The resulting combination of buoyancy and shear will support
    organized storm structures, and large hail will be possible with any
    more mature updraft. Primary severe potential is expected over SD
    where the strongest vertical shear exists. Overall severe
    thunderstorm coverage is currently expected to stay isolated, likely
    precluding the need for a watch. However, convective trends are
    being monitored closely.

    ..Mosier.. 09/05/2026

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!-HXcsvkIOOyG63pZrODsEa38FhvGEcaXM5pg71IO30slcr4f1mj3w57f1qd3GUfplzhZEPaNALNpTUHXAPGdLcMova0$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...FSD...OAX...ABR...BIS...LBF...

    LAT...LON 45770030 47550086 47689824 45999653 43339602 42549789
    43389897 44479951 45770030

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


    = = =
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    --- scorpsmtpd
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)