ACUS01 KWNS 131646
SWODY1
SPC AC 131646

Day 1 Convective Outlook RESENT 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1146 AM CDT Wed Aug 13 2025

Valid 131630Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEBRASKA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe wind gusts and isolated large hail may occur across
parts of the northern/central Plains this evening and overnight.
Thunderstorms across portions of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic may
produce occasional damaging winds this afternoon.

...Northern/Central Plains...
Recent satellite imagery shows a low-amplitude shortwave trough
moving through southwest MT. This shortwave is forecast to continue
eastward along the MT/WY border vicinity today, before continuing
through the Dakotas/NE tonight. The airmass preceding this shortwave
across southeast MT/northeast WY is relatively dry, with dewpoints
currently in the low to mid 50s. Greater low-level moisture is in
place farther east, with dewpoints increasing into the low 60s
across south-central SD and north-central NE. Southerly low-level
flow is anticipated throughout the day, helping to offset some of
the mixing expected amid strong diurnal heating. This should result
in a modestly moist, deeply mixed airmass across the southeast
MT/northeast WY/western SD vicinity by the late afternoon when the
forcing for ascent attendant to the approaching shortwave reaches
the region. This modest large-scale ascent show work in tandem with
robust daytime heating and localized orographic effects near the
Black Hills to initiate thunderstorms.

High-based storms are anticipated initially, which could result in
strong outflow with any more mature storms. A few instances of hail
as possible as well. Greater low-level moisture and buoyancy will be
in place farther east (i.e. into more of western/central SD), which
will combine with persistent large-scale forcing for ascent and a
strengthening low-level jet to support upscale growth into a
convective line. This should foster a continued threat for damaging
gusts into south-central SD and far north-central NE this evening.
The threat should diminish with eastern extent given nocturnal
stabilization and increasing convective inhibition.

...Northeast/Mid-Atlantic...
Dewpoints currently range from the low 70s over the northern
Mid-Atlantic into the low 60s across northern NH/VT. Thunderstorms
are already developing within this moist and moderately buoyant
airmass as large-scale ascent attendant to upper troughing advancing
eastward over Ontario/Quebec glances the region. Deep-layer vertical
shear is expected to remain weak throughout the day (i.e. effective
bulk shear generally less than 25 kt), which should limit overall
storm strength and organization. Even so, steep low-level lapse
rates could aid in the development of occasionally damaging gusts
with any of the deeper convective cores. Greater buoyancy could
result in a relatively higher probability for damaging gusts from
the NY Hudson Valley into eastern PA/NJ. Refer to recently issued
MCD #1938 for additional information.

..Mosier/Squitieri.. 08/13/2025





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ACUS01 KWNS 132012
SWODY1
SPC AC 132012

Day 1 Convective Outlook RESENT 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0312 PM CDT Wed Aug 13 2025

Valid 132000Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEBRASKA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe wind gusts and isolated large hail may occur across
parts of the northern/central Plains this evening and overnight.
Thunderstorms across portions of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic may
produce occasional damaging winds this afternoon.

...20Z Update...
The western portion of the Marginal Risk area in the Mid-Atlantic
was trimmed, where convective overturning and cloud debris should
generally limit the severe risk. Farther west, the Marginal Risk was
expanded slightly northward into southwestern ND. Recent
high-resolution guidance is in relatively good agreement, depicting
a cluster of high-based storms evolving in an environment
characterized by weak-moderate surface-based buoyancy and 30-40 kt
of effective shear. Severe wind gusts and isolated large hail will
be possible with these storms. For details on the near-term severe
risk in the northern Plains, see MCD #1939.

..Weinman.. 08/13/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1146 AM CDT Wed Aug 13 2025/

...Northern/Central Plains...
Recent satellite imagery shows a low-amplitude shortwave trough
moving through southwest MT. This shortwave is forecast to continue
eastward along the MT/WY border vicinity today, before continuing
through the Dakotas/NE tonight. The airmass preceding this shortwave
across southeast MT/northeast WY is relatively dry, with dewpoints
currently in the low to mid 50s. Greater low-level moisture is in
place farther east, with dewpoints increasing into the low 60s
across south-central SD and north-central NE. Southerly low-level
flow is anticipated throughout the day, helping to offset some of
the mixing expected amid strong diurnal heating. This should result
in a modestly moist, deeply mixed airmass across the southeast
MT/northeast WY/western SD vicinity by the late afternoon when the
forcing for ascent attendant to the approaching shortwave reaches
the region. This modest large-scale ascent show work in tandem with
robust daytime heating and localized orographic effects near the
Black Hills to initiate thunderstorms.

High-based storms are anticipated initially, which could result in
strong outflow with any more mature storms. A few instances of hail
as possible as well. Greater low-level moisture and buoyancy will be
in place farther east (i.e. into more of western/central SD), which
will combine with persistent large-scale forcing for ascent and a
strengthening low-level jet to support upscale growth into a
convective line. This should foster a continued threat for damaging
gusts into south-central SD and far north-central NE this evening.
The threat should diminish with eastern extent given nocturnal
stabilization and increasing convective inhibition.

...Northeast/Mid-Atlantic...
Dewpoints currently range from the low 70s over the northern
Mid-Atlantic into the low 60s across northern NH/VT. Thunderstorms
are already developing within this moist and moderately buoyant
airmass as large-scale ascent attendant to upper troughing advancing
eastward over Ontario/Quebec glances the region. Deep-layer vertical
shear is expected to remain weak throughout the day (i.e. effective
bulk shear generally less than 25 kt), which should limit overall
storm strength and organization. Even so, steep low-level lapse
rates could aid in the development of occasionally damaging gusts
with any of the deeper convective cores. Greater buoyancy could
result in a relatively higher probability for damaging gusts from
the NY Hudson Valley into eastern PA/NJ. Refer to recently issued
MCD #1938 for additional information.





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ACUS01 KWNS 201339
SWODY1
SPC AC 201338

Day 1 Convective Outlook RESENT 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0838 AM CDT Wed Aug 20 2025

Valid 201300Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
TEXAS/DEEP SOUTH AND NORTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorms from Texas across the Lower Mississippi
Valley and Gulf Coast states may pose a risk for localized damaging
wind gusts this afternoon and evening. Isolated severe thunderstorms
may also occur across eastern Montana and northern North Dakota.

...Texas to Lower Mississippi Valley/Gulf Coast States...
A convectively augmented effective front will continue to progress
southward, southward-shifting the potential for microburst-related
wind damage regionally. Diurnal heating of a moist boundary layer
will result in a moderately to strongly unstable and weakly capped
airmass by afternoon, with the strongest buoyancy (2500+ J/kg
MLCAPE) expected across central/east Texas east-northeastward to Mississippi/western Alabama/southern Tennessee. Some small-scale
clusters may evolve, but weak vertical shear will otherwise tend to
keep the overall pulse-type damaging wind potential very isolated.

...Northern Plains...
The region will be influenced by late-day/nighttime height falls as
a shortwave trough emerges eastward from the Canadian Rockies, with
an eastward-advancing cold front moving across eastern Montana into
North Dakota tonight. A narrow corridor of moderate to large
buoyancy is expected along/ahead of the surface cold front, and near
a pre-frontal surface trough. Beneath a plume of warm elevated
mixed-layer air, mid/upper-level support for the initiation of
boundary-layer based thunderstorm development is forecast to
generally remain north of the international border.

One exception may be in the post-frontal environment across eastern
Montana. The environment would be conducive to a few severe storms
capable of hail/wind. While the risk for severe thunderstorms
appears largely conditional into North Dakota where stronger
destabilization is expected, isolated deeper convective development
is plausible across northwestern North Dakota in proximity to the
surface low/front late this afternoon, and more so this evening.
Should this occur, forecast soundings indicate the environment would
support isolated supercell development and related severe-weather
risks.

..Guyer/Marsh.. 08/20/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 111721
SWODY1
SPC AC 111721

Day 1 Convective Outlook RESENT 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1221 PM CDT Thu Sep 11 2025

Valid 111630Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN
MONTANA INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...

CORRECTED FOR PROB GRAPHICS

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected over eastern Montana
into western North Dakota late this afternoon through the evening.
The primary hazards are severe wind gusts and large hail.

...Synopsis...
Water-vapor imagery shows a large cyclone over the West with a
downstream ridge over the Great Plains, and a trough centered over
the Lower Great Lakes. Southwesterly mid to high-level flow extends
from the base of the larger-scale western U.S. trough northeastward
through the Great Basin and into the northern Great Plains. A
mid-level disturbance implied in water-vapor imagery over western
WY, is forecast to move northeast into eastern MT/western ND towards
this evening.

In the low levels, a plume of seasonably rich moisture will protrude
northward from the central Plains into the Dakotas and eastern MT.
A lee trough will extend southward from a surface low over the
northern High Plains.

...Rockies into the northern Plains...
An ongoing cluster of thunderstorms associated with warm-air
advection near the ND/Manitoba border will continue to move
east-northeastward into southern Canada ahead of a pair of MCVs over
western ND/eastern MT. Diurnal heating over the higher terrain from
near the Four Corners northward into southern MT will favor
scattered thunderstorms developing during the midday into the early
afternoon. Storm coverage will increase further over the central
Rockies during the afternoon, with the stronger storms capable of an
isolated hail/wind threat. As the airmass destabilizes over the
plains, particularly across eastern MT within the moist plume
primarily north of the surface low, isolated to scattered storms are
forecast by mid to late afternoon. This initial activity will
probably develop near the MT/WY border with upscale growth into a
cluster possible during the evening. Deep-layer shear supporting
organized storm modes coupled with steep lapse rates, will combine
to aid in several stronger storms capable of a hail/wind threat.
The wind threat will probably continue into ND during the evening
within the terminus region of a 35-40 kt southerly LLJ. A gradual
transition to increasingly elevated convection is expected late as
convective inhibition increases and the overall severe risk lessens.

..15_ows.. 09/11/2025





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ACUS01 KWNS 110538
SWODY1
SPC AC 110537

Day 1 Convective Outlook RESENT 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1137 PM CST Mon Nov 10 2025

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A severe threat is not expected across the U.S. today or tonight.

...DISCUSSION...
Mid-level northwesterly flow will be in place today from the
Intermountain West to the Eastern Seaboard. At the surface, a cool
and dry airmass over much of the nation will make conditions
unfavorable for thunderstorm development. No severe threat is
expected today and tonight.

..Broyles/Weinman.. 11/11/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 051728
SWODY1
SPC AC 051726

Day 1 Convective Outlook RESENT 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1126 AM CST Thu Mar 05 2026

Valid 051630Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected late this afternoon into
tonight from northwest Texas and the Texas Panhandle into western
Oklahoma and southern/central Kansas. Large to very large hail, a
few tornadoes, and severe/damaging winds are possible.

...Southern/Central Plains...
An upper trough will amplify over the western U.S. today as a broad
zone of modestly enhanced mid-level southwesterly flow persists over
the southern/central Plains. At the surface, lee cyclogenesis is
forecast to occur across eastern Colorado through this evening,
which will promote continued northward transport of low-level
moisture across Texas into Oklahoma/Kansas. A surface dryline will
also extend southward from the low over the southern High Plains.

Multi-layer cloud cover remains semi-prevalent at late morning but
peripheral gradual clearing is noted across parts of western North
Texas as well as along the New Mexico/Texas border vicinity. The
strongest heating/mixing will occur in vicinity across far
west/northwest Texas, but it seems probable that storm development
will occur within the somewhat richer moisture near/just east of the
Caprock Escarpment including parts of Low Rolling Plains and
Texas/southwest Oklahoma border vicinity. Such development should
occur by around 4pm-6pm CST as convective temperatures are breached.

Somewhat modest/nebulous large-scale ascent will probably support a
multi-hour period of semi-discrete supercells even if effective
shear is not robust and low-level shear/SRH a bit modest during time
of initial development, but nonetheless steadily strengthening
toward/after 00z/6pm CST. This will include associated threats for
large to very large hail initially, potentially up to 2-3 inches in
diameter. The increasing low-level shear through the evening will
also foster enlarged low-level hodographs and the potential for a
few tornadoes with this activity, potentially including a
spatiotemporal window for a strong (EF2+) tornado even if a more
complex mode is evolving. Over time, convection is forecast to grow
upscale into a small but potentially intense cluster as it moves
northeastward into parts of western/northern Oklahoma and southern
Kansas.

Isolated supercells may also occur along the length of the dryline
across west Texas late this afternoon/evening, with associated
threat for occasional large hail and severe wind gusts. However,
confidence in any more than isolated coverage remains low due to
weak large-scale forcing. Farther north, isolated severe hail may
occur tonight with elevated convection in a low-level warm advection
regime across eastern Nebraska, northwest Missouri into Iowa.

...Ohio Valley to the central Appalachians...
A mid-level shortwave trough will move quickly eastward today across
the Ohio Valley. Modest low-level moisture will remain in place
along/south of a front, with generally weak instability forecast
across the warm sector. Even so, sufficiently strong low to
mid-level winds associated with this shortwave trough may promote a
few instances of damaging winds with loosely organized clusters that
develop and spread eastward through the afternoon.

...Florida Peninsula...
Beneath an upper high and within an easterly low-level flow regime,
strong heating will occur today across the Florida Peninsula, with
dewpoints dropping into the mid 60s F. Despite the upper high,
mid-level temperatures (-11 or -12C at 500mb) will remain relatively
cool. Scattered convection appear probable along the western Florida
Peninsula during the afternoon where low-level convergence will be
maximized. Locally strong wind gusts will be possible, although
organized severe thunderstorms are not expected.

..Guyer/Wendt.. 03/05/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 090700
SWODY1
SPC AC 090658

Day 1 Convective Outlook RESENT 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0158 AM CDT Mon Mar 09 2026

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
MID-SOUTH REGION AND CENTRAL GULF STATES...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are expected across the Mid-South region and
central Gulf states.

...Mid-South/Central Gulf States...

Weak, low amplitude short-wave trough is currently located over the
southern High Plains. This feature is forecast to advance into
central OK later this morning before shifting into eastern AR by
10/00z, then into the southern Appalachians during the overnight
hours. Despite this short wave, large-scale height rises are
forecast through the period across much of the eastern CONUS. As a
result, LLJ will likely prove instrumental in convective initiation
as low-level warm advection should extend along a corridor from the
southern Plains into the northern Gulf states.

Early this morning, 60F surface dew points were observed into
portions of the Arklatex. Latest model guidance suggests mid 60s dew
points will advance to near I40 across AR and these values should
spread into northern MS/AL by late afternoon. Given the strength of
the LLJ currently observed across north-central TX/OK, there is
increasing confidence that elevated convection may develop just
before sunrise across southeast OK. This activity would then
potentially grow upscale as it approaches the MS River. Latest HREF
members generally agree with this scenario and multiple thunderstorm
clusters and possibly an MCS-like cluster could evolve with time.
Strong deep-layer shear favors the potential for supercells, and
hail should be the primary concern with this activity. Severe threat
will spread southeast as thunderstorms spread toward
northern/central AL by late afternoon, potentially into western GA
during the evening.

...Southern AZ...

Strong upper low is forecast to advance toward the northern Baja
Peninsula by 10/00z, eventually shifting into northwest Mexico, just
south of the AZ border by the end of the period. Steep lapse rates
are forecast across southern AZ within a favorable zone for
large-scale ascent. Profiles suggest scattered convection will
develop and spread north across this region. Some consideration was
given to adding 5 percent severe hail/wind probabilities to this
region, but forecast soundings suggest this activity should struggle
to attain severe levels. Even so, small hail and gusty winds could
accompany the strongest convection.

..Darrow/Lyons.. 03/09/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 131215
SWODY1
SPC AC 131214

Day 1 Convective Outlook RESENT 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0714 AM CDT Wed May 13 2026

Valid 131300Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL MT
SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN UT...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorms capable of damaging wind gusts are possible
across portions of the northern High Plains and Great Basin this
afternoon and evening. Other areas of isolated severe wind/hail
risk occur over the upper Ohio Valley and the Texas Panhandle.

...WV/PA/NY...
A large upper trough is deepening as it tracks southeastward across
the Great Lakes and Midwest into the Upper Ohio Valley. The
associated surface cold front is sweeping across OH, and will extend
from central NY into western PA and northern WV later today. Clouds
are currently prevalent across this region, but some
clearing/heating is expected as low-level moisture is transported
into the area. The result will be narrow corridor of sufficient
CAPE for thunderstorm development along the front from NY into WV.
Given the strength of the upper trough and winds aloft, there is
concern for a few severe storms capable of damaging winds and
perhaps hail...mainly in the 18-00z period.

...Great Basin...
A second strong and progressive upper trough has moved ashore over
OR/WA and will spread mid-level height falls and large scale ascent
across much of the Great Basin and Rockies today and tonight.
Low-level moisture is very sparse ahead of the system, but pockets
of strong heating from northern UT into eastern ID/western WY and
central MT will result in inverted-v profiles and sufficient CAPE
for isolated charge separation and robust updrafts. CAM solutions
suggest a risk of high-based fast-moving showers and occasional
thunderstorms affecting the region, with the risk of severe wind
gusts.

...TX Panhandle...
A surface dryline will become established over the TX panhandle
later today, where temperatures will climb well into the 90s.
Forecast soundings show only modest CAPE and limited risk of
convective initiation over this area. However, any storm that can
persist in this environment would conditionally pose a threat of
damaging wind gusts and large hail. Will maintain the ongoing MRGL
risk for this conditional risk.

..Hart/Wendt.. 05/13/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 020200
SWODY1
SPC AC 020158

Day 1 Convective Outlook RESENT 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0858 PM CDT Mon Jun 01 2026

Valid 020100Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE OZARKS/MID-SOUTH...AND PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS....

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with large hail and severe wind gusts are still
expected this afternoon and evening across parts of the central
Plains. Scattered strong to severe wind gusts are also possible
within the Ozarks and portions of the Mid-South.

...01Z Update...
Notable upper-level low is promote severe convection within the
Central High Plains this evening. This activity with continue for a
few more hours. The most organized convection has become more linear
in southwestern Kansas. This will be the focal point for severe wind
gusts this evening/overnight. Some of this risk may eventually
spread in to northern Oklahoma. Scattered strong to severe storms
are also ongoing in Arkansas/northern Mississippi. These storms will
be capable of large hail and damaging winds over the next few hours.
The primary question remains how long the threat will continue. Some
models still hint at linear organization occurring later tonight,
but confidence is low as to where this will occur. Strongly forced
convection may produce severe gusts in parts of eastern
Montana/western North Dakota. A remaining pocket of enhanced shear
and buoyancy is evident near the SC/GA border. A subtle shortwave
may allow a cluster of storms to move south and east. Isolated
damaging winds would be possible with this activity.

..Wendt.. 06/02/2026

$$

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