Thaw of permafrost has vast impact on built environment

Date:
January 12, 2022
Source:
University of Helsinki
Summary:
Permafrost has a central role in the sustainable development of the
Arctic region. The thaw of permafrost is set to damage buildings
and roads, leading to tens of billions of euros in additional
costs in the near future, according to an international review.



FULL STORY ========================================================================== Permafrost has a central role in the sustainable development of the
Arctic region. The thaw of permafrost is set to damage buildings and
roads, leading to tens of billions of euros in additional costs in
the near future, according to an international review coordinated by
Finnish geographers.


========================================================================== Permafrost exists extensively in the Arctic region and in mountain ranges,
in places such as the Tibetan plateau. Both the construction itself
and the warming of the climate cause permafrost to thaw, which in turn threatens both existing infrastructure and future construction projects.

In the literature review, which covered the permafrost area of the
whole Northern Hemisphere, it was noticed that the proportion of damaged structures in the entire building stock ranged from less than 10 percent
to as high as 80 percent. Russia had the greatest share of damage,
while on the Tibetan plateau and in parts of Canada, damage was about
30 percent.

"According to published research, damage was lowest in the European
permafrost area, such as the Alps and Svalbard," says Professor Jan
Hjort of the Geography Research Unit at the University of Oulu.

Forecasts reveal growing damage and rising costs As much as 70 percent
of today's infrastructure is in the risk area, when the warming of the
ground caused by climate change is considered. "About 500 Arctic villages
and cities are located in areas where permafrost is expected to thaw
by the middle of this century," explains Professor Miska Luoto of the Department of Geosciences and Geography, The BioGeoClimate Modelling Lab,
at the University of Helsinki.

Transport and transportation infrastructure, such as railways, as well
as oil and natural gas pipelines, appear to be in the most vulnerable positions.

Relatively speaking, the greatest amount of infrastructure is in hazard
areas in the mountainous regions of Central Asia, where temperatures of permafrost are already close to 0 degrees Celsius.

"We must consider that in these geographically very extensive analyses
it has not been possible to take into account the 'heat load' caused
by construction and buildings themselves, so the threats could easily
become tangible in extensive damage to buildings before the end of this century," Jan Hjort says.

The costs of infrastructure maintenance and repair related to the bearing capacity of permafrost could reach about 30 billion euros in the Arctic
region by 2060. In Russia alone, the costs could exceed 20 billion
euros. However, the estimates were seen to contain a large amount of uncertainty caused by the data. "The fact that no corresponding cost
estimates have been available from the extensive permafrost areas in
China can also be seen as a drawback," Miska Luoto adds.

Proposals for a more sustainable future The review also puts forward
ways to try to prepare for future threats. Also needed, in addition
to numerous existing solutions of construction technology, are more
precise forecasts of future changes in permafrost. More detailed
data and forecasts could enable better surveys of areas in danger and
more detailed cost estimates. Also, better dialogue among researchers, planners, builders, decision-makers, and other actors in the permafrost
area was seen as important in the search for a more sustainable future.

========================================================================== Story Source: Materials provided by University_of_Helsinki. Note:
Content may be edited for style and length.


========================================================================== Related Multimedia:
* A_house_north_of_Fairbanks_sinking_into_thawing_permafrost ========================================================================== Journal Reference:
1. Hjort, J., Streletskiy, D., Dore', G. et al. Impacts of permafrost
degradation on infrastructure. Nat Rev Earth Environ, 2022 DOI:
10.1038/ s43017-021-00247-8 ==========================================================================

Link to news story: https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2022/01/220112105653.htm
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